The Newcastle Knights will put their season on the line on Friday evening against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, and do it from a position of weakness.
That is not a knock on the 19 players coach Justin Holbrook has named to do battle against the entertainment machine that is the Rabbitohs, but it is indeed a fact of life.
The Knights, at full strength, are a side who were shaping as good enough to be in the mix for the top four, but injuries and suspensions have reared their head in a big way, and they have been more or less forced to stumble over the finish line of the regular season.
As they arrive in the finals, they do get Tyson Frizell and Phoenix Crossland back from suspension and injury respectively, but they are without a number of key players.
Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas finnished their seasons off with an ACL and ankle injury respectively during Round 21, Trey Mooney is done for the season with a shoulder injury, and Jacob Saifiti is suspended over a horror high shot in Round 26.
That's four key players out for the season, but the focus is in the middle third, where the Knights have been so very good this year - not exactly something that has been pointed at the Hunter-based outfit in recent years as they struggled through the Adam O'Brien tenure.
Holbrook has come in and flipped the script.
The signing of Mooney from the Raiders has helped matters, but the Knights have looked a different side at both ends of the park this year when it comes to the middle.
They now head in to the finals without the two guys who have made that happen.
That leaves veteran Tyson Frizell, who apparently is off to the Wests Tigers next year to finish his career, and rookie Cody Hopwood, as well as one of the game's most improved in lock Mat Crocker, to deal with the Rabbitohs middle.
This isn't to say they can't find a way, but a middle third led by Tevita Tatola, Keaon Koloamatangi and Cameron Murray looks far superior on paper, while the Rabbitohs also have their usual depth on the bench, whereas Newcastle simply do not owing to the number of players unavailable.
What that all means is the Rabbitohs are unlikely to be the ones being dominated in the middle, and the Knights will need to come up with a new game plan.
Not a complete re-invention of the wheel mind you, but tweaks, to utilise strengths that have already been on display throughout the course of their really quite incredible rise during the season.
Because two of the players who have been, for lack of a better term, awesome, for the Knights this year are Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew on the wings.
As we enter the finals, Young has run for an average of 164 metres per game, added 20 tries and broken through 97 tackles at well north of four per game.
The winger on the other side of the park, Marzhew, has also been phenomenal, averaging 187 metres per game, scoring 24 tries in 23 games, and adding 113 tackle breaks at almost five per game.
Marzhew went on a run through the middle of the year where he made 200 or more metres in six of seven games, and while he has been a bit quieter in recent times, he was back at his best against the Warriors, running for 255 metres.
Young, on the other hand, has been on the lower side of the average, but has still cracked the 200-metre barrier on three separate occasions throughout the year.
In two of the three games Young has made more than 200 metres, Marzhew has done the same, and the club won both. It didn't happen in the third instance, but Marzhew still had a strong game.
In fact, most times both of the wingers crack 150 or more metres, the Knights either win, or look like they are well in with a shot at doing so.
And therein lies the challenge for Friday night.
If the Knights are going to win, they need to find a way onto the front foot, and it will start at the back.
Running the ball back hard, breaking tackles, adding post-contact yardage, letting the forwards get back behind the ball sooner and putting the Rabbitohs under territory pressure.
It's a simple formula, but one Justin Holbrook has found success with this year.
It just goes to an entirely new level with the state of the Newcastle middle third for this game.
If the Knights are going to be a chance, both Marzhew and Young need to break the 200-metre barrier and limit mistakes.
It's as simple as that.
