Origin Watch: Why the Blues will win Origin One

Origin One is almost here.

Although it runs a knife through NRL action for over a month, it's all worth it that first Wednesday of the series.

All the bookies had NSW as unbackable favourites earlier in the season but injuries and form have evened up the contest.

The Blues will, of course, hold the belief that they still have what it takes to hold onto possession of the shield they won in 2018.

Below we look at the reasons the Blues will take a 1-0 series win tonight.

Damien Cook:

In the majority of contests across the park, the talents of corresponding players almost cancel their opponent out.

Ponga and Tedesco are neck and neck in terms of ability, while the form across both halves combinations is red hot.

The exception comes in the form of Blues number nine Damien Cook.

With all due respect to Ben Hunt, who is more than an average number nine, QLD do not have a Damien Cook.

No one in the NRL, or rugby league, in general, has a Damien Cook.

Cook is the best hooker in the game right now and shapes as the absolute key in deciding this series.

I still maintain he was the best player in last year's series despite the shock naming of Billy Slater as player of the series.

NSW will struggle to win the series if Cook doesn't fire.

QLD will struggle to win the series if they cannot contain the Bunnies' whippet.

In last year's series Cook ran for over 85 metres per game. He had a try assist and multiple line breaks.

They don't admit it publicly but the Maroons would have dedicated time to working out how they will stop Cook.

Many have tried, including the very same Maroons side of 2018. They, like everyone else, were unable to get the job done.

Cook is almost impossible to contain because it only takes one lazy or tired marker and he's off.

It takes only a second for the game to change and it could happen at any time.

Cook is unparalleled in this series and will lead to the Blues to victory tonight.

The Bench:

Another spot in which the Blues hold an advantage, at least on paper, is from the interchange bench.

Cam Murray is in red hot form and may even start come kick off.

Whether it is the firebrand Murray or the best ball playing 13 in the game in Jurbo, the Blues possess a genuine game-breaking weapon.

Angus Crichton isn't in the best of form but his efforts in last year's series proved he is more than up to this level.

Although I'm still not sure of his exact role, I'm taking Jack Wighton over Moses Mbye any day.

I'm probably one of Mbye's biggest fans but Wighton is capable of anything and brings a super 2019 with him into the contest.

The real, not so secret weapon, comes in the form of debutant Payne Haas.

Right now there is no one like Haas on the QLD bench.

Again, with the greatest of respect to the two young forwards on the QLD 14-17, neither has produced the trail of destruction left by Haas.

Expect Klemmer and Vaughan to set a solid platform leading to the unleashing of Haas.

There are multiple side stories on show tonight but the debut of Payne is the most exciting.

He will be targeted early by the experienced Maroons and I'd be shocked if he didn't give away an early penalty or drop ball but it will be worth it.

Freddy Genius:

If there's a possible route to victory, no matter how whacky, you better believe that Freddy has explored it.

Everything he touched turned to gold in his first series as NSW coach and all reports are he has the boys primed again for tonight.

Whereas Walters has ridiculously banned mention of the opponents in camp, Fittler has the Blues relaxed and ready.

Last year he instructed the Blues players to walk to the ground rather than take the bus to soak up the atmosphere.

This year he has the Blues training barefoot and very aggressively brushed away a possible pre-game scandal.

The Blues should be distraction free.

Fittler, Wighton aside, has picked a scandal free side meaning minimal distractions.

I'm sure it's not as smooth sailing as it looks but the Blues have enjoyed a straight forward camp and should be ready.