State of Origin - QLD v NSW: Game 1
ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 04: Nathan Cleary of the Blues offloads the ball during game one of the 2020 State of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at the Adelaide Oval on November 04, 2020 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Despite entering the series as huge betting favourites, the NSW Blues now face a do or die Origin II tomorrow night.

Brad Fittler has resisted making wholesale changes, although the lineup will look a little different when they run out with hopes of keeping the series alive.

Below are the reasons I believe NSW will level it up tomorrow night, and also the reasons why they probably won't.

The Blues are meant to be my escape from the Sharks but they show very similar characteristics:

Why They'll Win

- They Have To: Sounds simple right? If the Blues lose tomorrow night then the Shield is headed north of the Tweed for the first time since 2017. If that isn't enough to deliver that little bit more to the Blues, then they might as well not bother tomorrow.

Despite what athletes say, it's always more difficult to win when you don't have to. QLD will want to win tomorrow but they know they have a second bite regardless in front of a massive home crowd awaiting them. The Blues don't have that luxury. That should have them as focused as possible.

- Much better rounded bench: I was (probably unfairly to be honest) critical of the bench in Game I. I hated the fact Paulo was started over Haas, I didn't like that Cam Murray was used as a second rower despite being a weapon in the middle, and I didn't get playing a half as a "utility" at all. I know the Murray injury ruined the rotation but Fittler's use of the bench was pretty dire last week.

This is a much better bench. It offers impact deluxe and also features players picked to play defined roles.

Paulo had to move back to the bench after failing to make the impact we had hoped. Haas has the game much more suited to starting at this level. Paulo can now come in and attack the middle when QLD players are tiring. His offload to Tedesco or Walker will be something to watch.

Brown is a brilliant in. The Blues lacked aggression or intimidation in Game I. He will add this in spades. Yeo has been the form lock of the competition for the majority of the season and can also fill in at second row.

To say the Blues missed Dale Finucane in Game I is a massive understatement. He offers SO MUCH at this level. I was so happy to hear he'd overcome injury. He's not the flashiest player in the game but watch the impact he has once called upon. Can't wait.

The only concern is no full time second rower on the bench, but with Frizell and Crichton very capable of playing the full 80, I rate the barrage that is coming QLD's way!

- Home Crowd: The obvious one that probably won't get the mention it deserves. Despite the talk from players of blocking the crowd out etc, they're human and react accordingly. Although ANZ Stadium won't be full due to external factors, 35,000 screaming Blues fans will provide a lift they didn't have in Game I.

The QLD win streak really lifted NSW fans and as a result the atmosphere within the Olympic Stadium. There's not that hatred there once was of the Sunshine State, however NSW fans HATE losing games to QLD. That will come across tomorrow night and lift the players.

ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 04: Boyd Cordner of the Blues prepares to pack a scrum during game one of the 2020 State of Origin series between the Queensland Maroons and the New South Wales Blues at the Adelaide Oval on November 04, 2020 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Why They Won't

- Didn't fix the mistakes from Game I: It's VERY dangerous to not learn from your mistakes. Brad Fittler was warned heading into Origin I that he would rue not picking a specialist centre and it's fair to say that come to be.

Dane Gagai absolutely bathed the Dally M medalist who was reduced to being the worst player on the park in Game I. Gutherson wasn't terrible but offered very little and allowed Kurt Capewell to set up a try. Crichton was ruled out earlier but surely he had to be named prior. I expect better from Wighton especially this week but it's risky. QLD know the path to glory now.

With all due respect to both, incredible, players; they're not Tommy Turbo.

- He dropped the wrong half: Fittler HAD to pick Nathan Cleary for Game I. He was the form halfback available and an absolute no brainer. That said, he could very easily have dropped him for Game II. If he was going to make a change in the halves it had to be Cleary that was left out.

Instead he's dropped Luke Keary who had a much better game in his Origin debut. Walker and Keary are similar players however Keary's short side running game is the best in the business. Cleary is yet to register a try assist at Origin Level and now has two 4.5/5 out of 10 games on the big stage in a row.

You don't want to dent the kid's confidence for the future and I expect to him to be far better tomorrow night, although on the surface it looks as though Fittler may have dropped the wrong half.

I also would have looked to Wighton at six with Crichton (now Lomax) in the centres.

- Lack of leadership: I am one of James Tedesco's biggest fans. He's the undoubted best player in the world in my view and if I were starting a club tomorrow he'd be the first player I'm talking to. That said, to throw him into the deep end as captain for Origin II is another risk we don't need right now.

Clint Gutherson is club captain, so looks the obvious choice. If not, then Tyson Frizell has a few games at this level under his belt.

I know Tedesco was the Vice Captain last year but the you now want Teddy to both win the game and the series as a player, as well as a leader. Big ask. They'll really miss Cordner.

Let us know below how you see the Blues going tomorrow night. Will there be a need for a decider or will it be an 80 minute party next Wednesday Night for the Maroons?

2 COMMENTS

  1. You say king Guth offered very little yet he set up both of JAC’s tries.
    Because he missed that one tackle on Capewell you bag him.

    Two words why we won’t win – Nathan Cleary.
    Keary would have kept his spot if Cleary’s daddy wasn’t besties with Fitler.

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