Up until about two weeks ago I was near certain that the Penrith Panthers would win the 2026 NRL premiership.
They still might.
That said, I am now not only far less confident but I now hold very, very grave concerns.
Not that they don't have the talent. Not that they don't have the coach. Not that they haven't won a stack of them recently to the point them losing a preliminary final last year was a shock.
Completely and totally for one, glaring and quite frankly scary reason.
It's not that they're missing Isaah Yeo either.
It's the fact that, despite being three regular season games away from the Finals, they don't know who their halves are.
I honestly can't remember a time when we've been this close to the finals series that a genuine title contender still doesn't have a locked in, first choice halves pairing.
Nathan Cleary is arguably the best playmaker of not only the modern game but the modern generation.
Four premierships, an Origin series win, Clive Churchill medalist. Likely to add a Dally M medal in a month's time.
Right now though, he doesn't have a partner.
Young gun and previously first choice Blaize Talagi has been dropped the past three games after a month of up and down footy.
Talagai played 80 minutes of NSW Cup in the Panthers win against Canberra. He had a try and a try assist. I didn't see the game but a friend of the website gave him plenty of wraps.
He then sat on the bench last week in their loss to the Warriors as an unused reserve.
On Thursday night he was injected into the game with 16 minutes remaining and was bad.
I don't blame him. Throwing a bloke on with the game on the line and saying "go win it, kid" is not a situation where I'm going to pile on a 21 yer-old.
His replacement, Jack Cogger, is a solid hand (when in Penrith colours) but doesn't scream premiership winning half.
Before Panthers fans run to the comments, which they will, with calls of "Cogger won a premiership next to Cleary" that may be technically true, but also very much not the case.
Cleary won premierships with Jarome Luai. Cogger more than played his part in the comeback win against the Broncos, but that was the Nathan Cleary show. He was just there in the last 29 minutes.
The fact Ivan Cleary felt the need to throw Talagai on during the biggest regular season of the game wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement for Cogger.
Absences of both Isaah Yeo and Mitch Kenny don't help the situation but the fact remains that Talagai was dropped and Cogger has started in two straight losses.
The fact those losses came to the Warriors and Roosters shouldn't concern fans, but the fact they don't have a nailed on, trustworthy partner to Nathan Cleary absolutely should.
The Warriors are in a similar situation in that we don't 100% know their preferred halves but the gulf in experience between Cogger/Talagi and Luke Metcalf is huge.
Not to mention the fact that Luke Metcalf would probably have a Dally M medal to his name had he not been injured last year.
Other contenders the Roosters have their halves. The Sharks haves are firing. The Dolphins clearly have their duo nailed down for 2026.
I have no doubt Ivan Cleary, who wins Premierships for fun, knows what he is doing.
The optics though, throwing on the kid to get the job done late after dropping him, aren't great.
I still believe Talagai and Cleary is the duo.
Cogger has been brilliant in the Penrith system. Whenever he is called upon the last thing you can do is accuse him of letting anyone down.
Maybe if you put Yeo back in there and Mitch Kenny's service to Cleary returns, it doesn't really matter who is beside the champion seven.
Yeo is week-to-week, if you believe the reports. Can't rely on him.
Mitch Kenny isn't expect back until the Finals. He can be forgiven for needing a week or two to re-find top form.
So Penrith could be holding onto hope that Yeo and Kenny are available, and near 100% for the Grand Final.
Given the form of the Warriors and Roosters, Penrith may not have the luxury of just cruising to the Grand Final this season.
Then again they might. I know better than to doubt this playing group and this coaching staff.
Right now though, every Finals bound team should have a preferred 19. Well 17 and two reserves.
Cleary cannot do this by himself. Well, he shouldn't need to do it by himself anyway.
Ivan needs to pick a five-eighth next weekend, stick with him and hope he nails the decision.
The fact we're three games out from finals and he hasn't yet made that decision yet remains a massive, massive concern.
