The Sydney Roosters enter their first grand final for seven years as red-hot favourites against a Newcastle Knights side who have already caused three upsets to make the decider.
It's a grand final that will be historic either way.
The Roosters are either going to break the 50-point curse, or the Knights are going to be the first team in the NRL era to win it all from outside the top four.
The finals series has been something of a roller-coaster for both of these sides, and for the first time in years, the two teams who won their qualifying finals and booked a week off in between that and the grand final qualifier, are out.
The Roosters come into the decider as a side who can put points up in a hurry, but with big questions around their discipline and defensive consistency.
Their run at times this season hasn't resembled that of a side who are going to win the competition, but they have found some real resolve on the run in, and Trent Robinson's side, complete now with Sam Walker back last week in record time from a syndesmosis injury, fired on all cylinders as they put away the Dolphins.
The trip to Brisbane saw the Roosters dominate from start to finish, and win an extra two days in recovery than the Knights, who had to play against the generation's best team in the Penrith Panthers on Sunday afternoon at Homebush.
But that has summed up the Knights' finals campaign.
Grit, determination, a backs to the wall attitude.
That was really never more present than last Sunday as they put together a 46-minute masterclass with 12-men to come from behind and beat the Panthers.
It's why, even as they enter as heavy outsiders for the decider, they can't be written off. Ultimately, the Knights have bought in to what Newcastle is all about, and Justin Holbrook's side have more than enough attacking fizz to do a job, with Kalyn Ponga and Sandon Smith, who has been a revelation since shuffling to halfback, leading the way.
It's actually tough to predict what kind of grand final this will be, with the pace of the game up, both teams able to throw it around and score points, but also with the ability to get into a grind if need be.
Team news
Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Billy Smith 4. Robert Toia 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Daly Cherry-Evans 7. Sam Walker 8. Naufahu Whyte 9. Reece Robson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Salesi Foketi 12. Siua Wong 13. Victor Radley 15. Angus Crichton 16. Nat Butcher 17. Spencer Leniu 18. Hugo Savala 19. Cody Ramsey 20. Benaiah Ioelu 22. Egan Butcher
Connor Watson has failed to clear a concussion so will miss the grand final.
Benaiah Ioelu has been added to the interchange bench, with Egan Butcher remaining the 20th man when teams were cut 24 hours out from kick-off.
No other changes from the preliminary final for the tri-colours, with Spencer Leniu and Cody Ramsey on the bench after not getting onto the field against the Dolphins last weekend.
Newcastle Knights
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 14. Harrison Graham 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Dylan Lucas 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Thomas Cant 20. Kyle McCarthy 21. Diesel Hagan
The Knights are obviously without Phoenix Crossland. He has been suspended over the devastating hip drop tackle on Nathan Cleary last weekend.
That means Harrison Graham has been named to start, although the speculation is that Thomas Cant will actually start. Diesel Hagan is also in the wider squad, while Kyle McCarthy is the named new face on the interchange bench.
History
Overall record: Played 64, Roosters 41, Knights 21, Drawn 2
Record in finals: Played 6, Roosters 5, Knights 1
Record in grand finals: Never met
Record at Accor Stadium: Never met
Last 10 matches: Roosters 9, Knights 1
This season's matches
Round 7: Roosters 38 defeat Knights 24 at Allianz Stadium
Round 21: Knights 22 defeated by Roosters 23 at McDonald Jones Stadium
Keys to the game
Roosters big game experience
The Roosters come into this game with an obvious advantage and edge - their big game and finals experience.
James Tedesco and Daly Cherry-Evans lead the way, but Sam Walker debuted at Origin level this year, Reece Robson is an Origin player, and the likes of Robert Toia, Angus Crichton and Naufahu Whyte are all representative players.
Daniel Tupou has done this about a thousand times before, while Victor Radley also has plenty of big game experience.
It doesn't matter where you look across the two name sides, if a team is going to be over-awed by the occasion, it's not going to be Robinson's Roosters.
Kalyn Ponga's impact
Kalyn Ponga will decide ultimately whether the Knights can score enough points to be in the mix for the grand final and premiership.
His abilities have been on clear display in recent weeks. Even last weekend, when Sandon Smith dominated, he was still among the best players on the park.
If the Knights are going to win, then Ponga, playing as he has done in recent weeks crucially without overplaying his hand, will again be enormous.
Naufahu Whyte leading from the front
One player who has had what could only be labelled a quiet finals series if Roosters enforcer Naufahu Whyte.
He finished the regular season with bells on, surging up Zero Tackle's NRL MVP and quickly becoming one of the Roosters' most important players.
His status as forward pack leader but going missing over the last three weeks hasn't stopped the Roosters in their tracks, but they will likely need hi to dominate the middle third if they are going to win the grand final.
If there is one thing the Knights have done in recent weeks, it's control the middle of the park, even without Jacob Saifiti.
That battle is a lot tougher without Phoenix Crossland though, and Whyte needs to lead the way in taking advantage.
The aerial battle
It's rare you'd suggest the battle of the wingers will go along way towards deciding any match, let alone a grand final, but that is exactly where we find ourselves heading into the decider.
The Roosters have Mark Nawaqanitawase and Daniel Tupou.
That is the entire reason.
The Knights are no slouches in the air either with Greg Marzhew and Dominic Young, but the Roosters arguably have the best two in the competition.
Combine that with the freakish skillset of Nawaqanitawase, and there is a real argument to suggest the outside backs will have key sway over the way the game plays out.
What is clear is that the Knights need to dominate possession to mitigate the impact of the Roosters wingers - and for that to happen, both Young and Marzhew again need to lead the metre-eating for the men from the Hunter.
Prediction
The Roosters come into the game as favourites, and deservedly so.
That hasn't stopped the Knights for the last three weeks, but a shorter turnaround and the loss of Phoenix Crossland really should catch up with them here.
As always, the question is what Roosters turn up.
If it's the good version of the tri-colours, combined with all their big-match experience, then they should win.
The Knights should keep it close though and will certainly have Roosters' fans nervous throughout the contest.
Roosters by 12.
Key game information: NRL grand final, Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
Kick-off: Sunday, October 4, 7:30pm (AEST)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Channel 9
Online: Live, 9Now
Betting: Roosters $1.46, Knights $2.80
Referee: Adam Gee
