Penrith Panthers: the real deal or an NRL Jekyll and Hyde

If an NRL team went searching for football hell, losing eight of its first ten matches in a season might be as near as they could get to achieving it.

Thus was the Panthers' start to 2019. Just a pair of tight wins against the Knights and the Tigers gave Ivan Cleary’s much talked up team any joy during that time.

The Eels, Storm, Titans, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Raiders and Warriors all profited from Penrith’s failure to capitalise on attacking opportunities and even the Tigers managed to avenge their 9-8 loss in Round 4 at Panthers Stadium, with a comprehensive 30-4 victory in Magic Round.

The stats were less than impressive throughout the losing run. The Panthers managed an average of just 12.7 points per game and conceded 24.0 at the other end to sit equal bottom of the ladder with the similarly unimpressive Titans.

A path out of that dark place appeared unlikely. Half-back Nathan Cleary had lost form and been injured and James Tamou, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and James Fisher-Harris were failing to imprint themselves on matches. Dangerous edge player, Viliame Kikau also missed matches with injury whilst Dylan Edwards and Josh Mansour were horribly out of form in the back three.

Strangely, the Panthers were getting the ball into the red zone frequently, yet finding their way through opposition defences was proving nigh-on impossible.

Then, and seemingly from nowhere, something changed.

It began with a hard-fought 16-10 win over the Eels in Round 11; on the cusp of the representative season. It gave the Panthers some hope yet still left them mired to the bottom of the ladder; sharing that honour with both the Titans and the Bulldogs.

The Sea Eagles were the next victims in a tight 15-12 victory just days before Origin I in Brisbane.

With continual curiosity around the supposed talent in the squad and the competition table failing to reflect that perception, Penrith fans were entitled to hope for something of a resurgence after consecutive wins.

However, when Cleary limped from the field in State of Origin I, the doubters around his form appeared to be justified and Queensland stormed home to take the opening match of the series.

Somewhat miraculously the Panthers strung together three wins on the trot the following weekend when they toppled the high-flying Roosters at Panthers Stadium.

Their season had well and truly come to life around the time James Maloney took the reins in Origin II and brought the Blues level; off the back of one of his best performances in a sky blue jersey.

On either side of that win, 19-18 victories against both the Rabbitohs and the Warriors had the Panthers sniffing around the top eight. With Maloney’s success seemingly lifting everyone at the foot of the mountains, the train began to thunder along the tracks at an ever-increasing rate.

A Round 16 bye helped keep the momentum flowing and by the time the Panthers had dusted up both the Titans and the Dragons in mid-July the comeback was part complete.

Statistically, it was a stunning turnaround. Seven wins on the trot and a bye had reaped 16 points, moving Cleary’s side to equal sixth on the premiership ladder and just three wins from second place.

Over the course of their winning run, they averaged 24.8 points per game and restricted their opposition to an average of 12.8; astonishingly similar figures to the first ten weeks of the season yet in complete reverse.

An argument could be made that Penrith are indeed a lock for the finals, with winnable matches against the Bulldogs, Sharks, Broncos, Cowboys and Knights to come in the final seven weeks of home and away play.

However, as unpredictable as the poor start to the season was for the Panthers, so too could be their run home. There are no assurances in the NRL and one key fact does need to be considered.

The seven-match winning stretch that the Panthers will look to stretch to eight this Sunday against the Raiders, may not be as formidable as many believe.

The impressive wins against the Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles and Roosters occurred within the Origin period, with all three clubs affected in some way shape or form. Outside that, Penrith merely knocked off the embattled Dragons and Titans as well as the inconsistent Warriors.

Should the Raiders bring them back to earth with a thud this weekend, some questions around the true merit of their recent run will be asked. In addition, such a result would set up an interesting finale for the Panthers; with fans all wondering whether Jekyll or Hyde will show up for the run home.

For me, the jury is still out.