Sorry Penrith fans, it's over. Not just in 2025, but probably in 2026, and 2027 too.
I know everyone at the foot of the mountains and those of a Panther persuasion will now want to poke my eyes out with the metaphorical pen I write with, but I am going to provide a body of evidence that I'd love you to comment on and debate with me about.
Firstly, let's look at this season.
A victory over the Sharks in Las Vegas during the season opener made us all feel it was business as usual at the foot of the mountains.
A high scoring shootout loss to the Roosters a week later didn't alarm us too much either.
We knew the Roosters had, just like Penrith, lost plenty of front-line players, but they were still the Roosters, after all. The same theory was applied to a close loss away to Melbourne Storm a week later.
Yet, four straight losses to opponents that the Panthers have often devoured since 2020 got the alarm bells ringing.
Teams probably need to be at a 50 per cent win rate at a minimum by the end of round eight if they want to taste glory in September and October, you see.
At the end of April, the Sea Eagles convincingly beat them and the media calls started that they were in some serious trouble if they wanted to make the finals.
A comfortable win against the Broncos a week later, with star half Nathan Cleary looking the goods, then changed the narrative. The Panthers were back, baby.
A week later in Townsville would put paid to that theory; a high scoring draw against a Cowboys side at a time when the feted Panthers machine was predicted to fire was a huge blow to their credentials.
They needed to keep winning a few weeks ago and they didn't. Instead, they've spluttered along.
The firepower they've lost in the middle of the field has been a huge factor. Is it a coincidence that James Fisher-Harris has moved to New Zealand Warriors and they are now in the top four and Penrith aren't?
Nathan Cleary is arguably going through the toughest club period of his career.
Yet in fairness to him, he has lost the man who had partnered him for years and years in Jarome Luai and his pack is not giving him the same go-forward without Fisher-Harris and other forward leaders that have left the Panthers in recent seasons.
Last week's convincing loss to Newcastle Knights was a huge defeat for them.
They were always at risk of losing, with so many front liners out, but not so heavily and whilst only scoring one try.
Their defence, which is something they have been a market leader in during this decade, is currently then third worst in the competition, behind the Eels and the Titans.
The team missed 55 tackles against Newcastle. Brad Schnieder replaced Cleary in the number seven jersey, yet two Knights tries came from him being trampled over by Newcastle left edge Dylan Lucas and, directing operations, he could only conjure up one try in response.
Coach Ivan Cleary will have to catapult himself back to his Warriors and Tigers days, (as well as his first stint at Penrith) to remember the skills required to put confidence into a team that is no doubt lacking some.
It's over for 2025.
Sorry Panthers fans, but 2026 and onwards won't be much better either, unless they get into the market for some reinforcements.
Penrith have been so successful because they took a long-term approach to youth development pathways back in 2012.
Phil Gould arrived in 2011 as General Manager and stayed there for eight years. He brought with him his mobile phone which included contacts for people such as media mogul James Packer no less.
โGus' managed to secure a $10 million loan from him to secure the financial future of the club and then the wounded Panther started to turn in a more predatory direction.
Gus's mobile also allowed him to build a scouting and development network and program that reached some of the furthest and remote parts of New South Wales and Queensland.
He also tightened things up hugely in the district of Penrith, stopping the leak of talented local juniors to other clubs.
This was also an era where the National Youth Competition was in full flow, which meant Gould could make an immediate impact with strong focus on recruitment for that Under 20s team, alongside the SG Ball (then under 18s) and the feeder team arrangement with local NSW Cup side Windsor Wolves, which providing a great level of football for those who weren't playing in the NRL.
As we look back from 2013, when Gus was serving his second full year at the Panthers, there is a case for us to rebrand the under 18s (then 19s), under 20s (then 21s) and the โreserve grade' of NSW Cup, as the โPhil Gould Cups'.
Of all the cups played for in this group of competition since 2013, Penrith Panthers, and then the Canterbury Bulldogs (who he joined in mid-2021) or their close partners have won twelve and been runners-up on five occasions.
In SG Ball, Penrith Panthers were premiers in 2016, 2018 and 2022 and minor premiers and runners up 2013 and 2014.
In the National Youth Competition, Penrith were winners in 2013 and 2015, runners up in 2016, second in the ladder and one off the Grand Final in 2017.
The NSW Jersey Flegg competition was the State-based equivalent after that and they were winners in 2022, runners up in 2018, and finished fifth and made finals in 2019.
In terms of NSW Cup winners, feeder club Windsor won in 2013, a stand-alone Penrith themselves won 2014, 2017 and 2022. They finished third on the ladder in 2015 and top of the ladder and one off the Grand Final in 2018.
Since Gus arrived in 2021, the Canterbury Bulldogs were runners up in the 2024 Sg Ball Cup, have won the last two Jersey Flegg titles and were runners up in the 2022 NSW Cup competition. Not only that, Penrith haven't fallen through the floor performance wise despite not quite scaling the heights of the Phil Gould era.
The job for Gould and others in the development and recruitment realm at Belmore is much tougher than the Penrith equivalent.
By far the strongest junior area in Australia, many Penrith locals have felt all anyone had to do was keep the local juniors in Panthers colours to provide a steady flow to a successful first-grade. Canterbury is a strong area, but not that strong.
Yet the work now happening at the Bulldogs is also eating away at the work of the other Sydney clubs, including Penrith.
The players that have dominated the NRL competition since 2020, mostly grew up playing together in the Penrith Panthers development system.
The amount of time they've spent working on those combinations and the playing, conditioning and recovery strategies employed throughout the club, has paid the ultimate dividends and that's why they made the 2020 grand final and then won the next four.
Ivan Cleary, on his second incarnation as Penrith coach, was the perfect final piece in that jigsaw and has done a brilliant job in putting the finishing performance touches in to this long-term development plan.
It's a similar reason as to why the Queensland Origin side were so successful when they went on an eight-series winning streak all those years ago.
Members of their spine Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith played together, trained together and broke bread together day-in, day-out since their teens. Mal Meninga was the perfect coach to bring them together with others in a Maroon jersey.
Phil Gould has brought some of the well-established โPenrith Way' to the Bulldogs.
Coach Cameron Ciraldo, a successful lower grade and assistant coach at the Panthers for many years, is also now the head coach of a side that includes Viliami Kikau, Matt Burton and Stephen Crichton, who also came through the house built by Gus at the foot of the mountains.
There are new Bulldogs development programs popping up all around Australia at the moment.
Only a few weeks ago, I read about one approximately a twenty-minute drive from my front door. I live about 900 kilometres from Phil Gould's office in Belmore! And I know there are many more satellite projects in place much further north of my place in Brisbane, too.
Those that have replaced Gould at Penrith are still doing a stellar job, but they are not Gus.
So the Penrith dynasty is under some real threat.
Lee Addison is a former Sea Eagles and Panthers coach and the founder ofย rugbyleaguecoach.com.au. His recently published book โRugby League Coach' is available now on Amazon andย www.rugbyleaguecoach.com.au
