In the build-up to the Grand Final, we struggled to pick a winner. So decided to break down the direct contests in order to declare a winner.
We were within a declined conversion from beside the posts of the exact margin so we've decided to apply it once again to Origin One.
Below is a break down of the direct contests that may decide the result.
Fullback: Brimson vs Tedesco
The battle of the fullbacks is always important at this level. In Tedesco, the Blues have the best number one in the business. He's won matches for the Blues and scored the series-winning try with the last play of the series in 2019. AJ Brimson brings with him red hot form and all the talent in the world. That said, I'm taking Tedesco in any one on one battle.
Score: Queensland 0 - 1 New South Wales
Wing: Coates & Sami vs Tupou & Addo Carr
The Maroons are blooding two players with a combined 70 games NRL experience. Tupou and Addo Carr have played a combined 281, as well as 11 Origins and three tests for the Kangaroos. Addo Carr is the game's premier winger while Tupou has enjoyed a monster 2020. This isn't even close.
Score: Queensland 0 - 2 New South Wales
Centre: Lee & Gagai vs Gutherson and Wighton
Brenko Lee looks as though he'll play despite an injury scare yesterday and will partner the super experienced Origin superstar Dane Gagai. Opposing them will be the current Dally M medalist and Dally M fullback of the year. It sounds like the Blues hold a big advantage here but I'm not so sure. Neither are full-time centres and despite Lee's relative inexperience, Gagai is a genuine beast at Origin level. That said, neither Lee nor Gagai can break a game open like the Blues pairing.
Score: Queensland 0 - 3 New South Wales
Halves: Munster & DCE vs Keary & Cleary
DCE and Munster bring with them a wealth of Origin experience and in Munster's case supreme recent form. The Blues will blood yet another halves combination with Keary on debut. Cleary was the form half of the competition but is coming off a poor Grand Final. The experience and talent of the Maroons pairing get the Maroons on the board here. If the Maroons don't win this battle then it could be a long series.
Score: Queensland 1 - 3 New South Wales
Prop: Welch & Papalii vs Saifiti & Paulo
What a battle this will be! Four monster props in brilliant form bashing each other senseless for our enjoyment. The Maroons have the best prop in the game in Papalii partnered with the Storm's best forward from the decider in Welch while the Blues have the best offloading prop in the game in Paulo and the intimidating Saifiti. This will be sooooo much fun to watch. I'm going with any combination involving Papalii.
Score: Queensland 2 - 3 New South Wales
Hooker: Friend vs Cook
I'm still shocked that the Maroons didn't go with a Hunt/Grant combination here. You know what you're going to get with Friend but he simply can't match the explosiveness of Cook. The South Sydney number nine is an advantage for his side in any game he plays. If the Maroons can't contain Cook, then watch out.
Score: Queensland 2 - 4 New South Wales
Second-Row & Lock: Kaufusi, Hess & Faasuamaleaui vs Cordner, Frizell and Trbojevic
Bennett sprung two surprises on us here. Hess's form has not been good and in Tino they're going firebrand over experience. I'm still expecting a late change with Arrow starting. The Blues have selected the obvious, tried and tested combination. Kaufusi is the only second-rower who would make the Blues line up. Jurbo is the best ball-playing lock in the game. Advantage Blues.
Score: Queensland 2 - 5 New South Wales
Bench: Hunt, Collins, Arrow & Su'A vs Walker, Haas, Murray & Crichton
I love the Maroons bench, however, I cannot believe Harry Grant is not there. Arrow and Su'A should start but will provide plenty from the bench. Hunt is the obvious utility choice. Cody Walker is in brilliant form and forced himself onto the bench however may not see minutes. Haas, Murray and Crichton all have genuine match changing potential. The Blues bench has far greater impact value and minutes. Blues for mine.
Score: Queensland 2 - 6 New South Wales
Coach: Bennett vs Fittler
Brad Fittler has been amazing in his stint at the helm of the Blues. Some of his methods were questioned early on but success has proven him correct. That horrid Blues anthem aside, it's hard to fault any decision he has made. Opposing him however is the master in Wayne Bennett. If anyone can get this young Maroons side up and ready to cause a boilover, it's Bennett. In any contest not containing Bellamy, it's hard to go past Bennett.
Score: Queensland 3 - 6 New South Wales
Final Verdict
On paper, this looks like an easy Blues victory. They have a far superior 1 through 5, including the competition's form player. Their halves are all class, a world-class number nine, a superior back row and a bench full of players who (Walker aside) would start for the Maroons. That said, Queensland THRIVE under these conditions and Wayne Bennett will have them believing it's them against the world. Queensland are dangerous underdogs but with all due respect to those selected in Maroons, the gulf in quality across that backline is just too hard to ignore.
New South Wales 24 - 12 Queensland
