The Queensland Maroons, despite lifting the State of Origin shield last year, head into Game 1 of this year's series as outsiders.
Maybe that shouldn't come as a surprise. Thomas Dearden will miss the campaign out injured, the outside backs are in short supply, they are on the road for Game 1, and the Blues will be desperate to reverse last year's horror show.
But if they can pinch a win in Sydney on Wednesday evening, you'd almost argue they are sure things to win one of the next two, which will be held in the normally Queensland-backed Victoria, and at home for a potential decider, playing on what has traditionally, until recent times at least, been a fortress at Lang Park.
Queensland head coach Billy Slater has made a habit of raising eyebrows with his selections in recent years, and the side leading into Game 1 is no different.
The moves to bring Jojo Fifita in, start Thomas Flegler, pick Kurt Capewell and leave Kulikefu Finefeuiaki watching on as 20th man all became discussion points.
They can all be argued, and will be if Queensland lose on Wednesday evening. If the Maroons win, then, as he did last year after dropping Daly Cherry-Evans, Slater is going to look like a genius.
The late change Slater must make though is at lock.
This is not a knock on Max Plath - he has absolutely earnt his Origin jersey, and whether it's starting or coming off the bench, he is going to do a job for Queensland as he does for the Dolphins week in and week out, where he is now back in the lock role after starting the year at hooker with Jeremy Marshall-King out.
The push for him to start though must be on two fronts for the Maroons.
Firstly, it's about Trent Loiero.
The Storm lock is certainly not in form that screams Origin, but in typical Queensland fashion, Billy Slater elected to pick and stick after his serious turn of work last year.
The issue, really, is that he came off the bench in Game 1 last year and it didnt' work.
You want impact on your bench, not a guy who is better off playing 80 minutes, and fits the mould of so many elite forwards Queensland have used over the years. Guys who tackle anything that moves and would run into a brick wall if they could. I'm talking Dallas Johnson. Ashley Harrison. That type of player.
Loiero is that.
Whether he plays big minutes or small minutes, his best use is during the first half an hour of the contest when the pace is high, and the game is physical.
That is his jam.
The second part of this is that Max Plath is going to potentially be needed at dummy half later in the game.
If it's a fast contest, then the chance of Harry Grant playing the entire 80 minutes, or at least playing them with any efficiency, is slim to none.
Given the way the NRL has been played this year, you'd have to assume the game will be just that - fast.
Plath coming on fresh to play at dummy half, or at the very least avoiding the opening excahnges, would be a boost for the Maroons compared to simply moving him across from lock at some point with half an hour or more already in the legs.
Compare that to New South Wales. At some point, they are going to bring a fresh Blayke Brailey who loves to run the footy off the bench, and he could wreak absolute havoc on Queensland.
Which brings us to how Queensland win Origin 1.
Make it slow.
They are away from home, against a Blues side who are going to want to move the ball, who are going to want to get their second-rowers involved early.
Haumole Olakau'atu and Hudson Young are dangerous as anything, but only if the Blues can keep the pace high, induce fatigue and keep the ball moving.
If Queensland can control the ruck, territory and by extension, pace of the game, then they are going to be very, very hard to beat.
Without knowing what's going on inside Billy Slater's head, he seems to have picked his side with that exact intention. Thomas Flegler starting, Reuben Cotter and Kurt Capewell on the edge, Harry Grant playing big minutes and, at some point, Patrick Carrigan ripping in from the pine as he did last year.
Loiero starting simply makes sense when you run the rule over all of that.
Sure, it could backfire if they can't control the game, and Plath could well come in handy, but if the Maroons can stop the Blues from playing free-flowing footy, they go a long way towards winning.
The best chance of that is to slow the game down, and the best man to do that is Loiero at the start, with Plath to be injected when required later in the contest.
