NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons: State of Origin 2026 Game 1 preview and prediction

The State of Origin series is here, with the NSW Blues facing what might as well be a must-win game in the series-opener against the QLD Maroons.

The Blues, who won Game 1 on the road last year but dropped Game 2 and 3 in Perth and Sydney respectively, are under enormous pressure this year.

They come in as favourites again, but that means very little once you pit the best players in the game on either side of the park.

There is no doubt New South Wales should have more attacking flare from the sides named, but with Laurie Daley under the microscope, and plenty of risks taken, as well as a late injury blow which has put a curveball into their preparations, nothing will be for certain heading into the contest.

On the other side of the coin, Billy Slater has doubled down on surprises from last year to continue making them this year, dropping one of his best, handing out some intriguing debuts and overlooking one of the game's most in-form players.

Queensland found a way last year though after dropping Daly Cherry-Evans, who was captain, just a game into the series, and you'd take a brave man to write them off this time around, particularly with Game 2 in a traditionally Queensland-supported Melbourne, and Game 3 back on home turf in Brisbane.

Teams

NSW Blues
1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To'o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Kotoni Staggs, 5. Tolutau Koula, 18. Ethan Strange, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Addin Fonua-Blake, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Haumole Olakau'atu, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray, 15. Victor Radley, 16. Jacob Saifiti, 17. Blayke Brailey, 18. Casey McLean, 21. Matt Burton

Laurie Daley made plenty of big calls throughout the Blues side, starting at the back with James Tedesco taking his spot back from Dylan Edwards.

Kotoni Staggs replaces the injured Latrell Mitchell, while Tolutau Koula will debut on the wing ahead of Casey McLean, who sits on the bench.

Mitchell Moses was named to play at five-eighth, but has been withdrawn through injury, so Ethan Strange will start after originally being named on the pine, with Matt Burton added to the bench.

Addin Fonua-Blake will debut up front alongside Mitch Barnett who has been picked despite a lack of game time this year, while Isaah Yeo starts at 13. Hudson Young retains his spot alongside the called up Haumole Olakau'atu who has been in superb form.

Cameron Murray returns from injury to play from the bench, while Victor Radley will debut off the bench with Blayke Brailey, with Jacob Saifiti the other surprise selection.

QLD Maroons
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11. Reuben Cotter, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Max Plath
Interchange: 14. Briton Nikora, 15. Lindsay Collins, 16. Patrick Carrigan, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Ezra Mam, 19. Gehamat Shibasaki

Like Laurie Daley, Billy Slater has made a number of big calls, keeping in line with his processes from previous years.

Kalyn Ponga takes over from Reece Walsh at fullback, while Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi being out injured means Selwyn Cobbo is recalled, and Jojo Fifita earns a debut. Robert Toia and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow line up in the centres, with Cameron Munster starting at five-eighth and joined by Sam Walker, who debuts to replace Thomas Dearden.

Thomas Flegler, after the best part of two years out of the game, joins Tino Fa'asuamaleaui at prop, while Harry Grant could well play all 80 minutes at hooker.

Reuben Cotter and Kurt Capewell remain in the second-row, with Max Plath rewarded for his good form and called to debut at lock.

Briton Nikora is another who will debut from the bench, while usual suspects Lindsay Collins, Patrick Carrigan and Trent Loiero are named. Ezra Mam is also a chance to debut, while Gehamat Shibasaki drops back from the centres to the bench after a mixed start to the year for the Broncos.

History

Overall head-to-head record: Played 132, Queensland 60, New South Wales 60, drawn 2
Overall series record: Played 44, Queensland 25, New South Wales 17, drawn 2
Last five series: QLD 3 - NSW 2
Record at Homebush: Played 32, NSW 21, QLD 11
Last five at Homebush: NSW 3 - QLD 2

Keys to the game

How will it be refereed?
This might be ultimately what decides the game.

The NRL have made it clear in public comments that they anticipate Origin will be refereed the same way as the regular season, and so it should be.

But we have heard that narrative before.

You can expect the game will be a little slower than the NRL - there won't be a blowout win because of the number of six-agains.

That, or any general slowing down of the game, probably plays right into Queensland's hands when you run the rule over the two teams picked.

Is Ethan Strange up to the Origin challenge?
A big blow for the Blues in the final days leading up to the game sees Mitchell Moses replaced by Ethan Strange at five-eighth.

Laurie Daley took a punt in naming Strange onto the bench, although not one you couldn't see coming.

The Raiders five-eighth was tremendous last year, and has picked up where he left off, getting better with every passing week this year in a new halves combination.

He won't add a lot kicking, but should add more running and with eyes up footy than Moses would have.

He is also a big body, defends well and should fit into the Origin area. A good performance could make the number six jumper his own for many, many years to come.

Can Sam Walker control Queensland's kicking game?
Sam Walker won the race for the Queensland number seven jersey after Tom Dearden went down injured, and should be playing his first game in Maroon of many.

One of the game's most talented young players, Walker regularly steals the show for the Roosters.

That's not to say he is perfect though.

There are plenty of rocks and diamonds in his game, and while the diamonds outshine the rocks, at Origin level, that won't be the case.

Mistakes will be punished, and so too will poor defence. He is going to need plenty of protection at that end of the park with a mobile Blues forward pack running at home.

But if he goes just fine at that end, then all eyes will turn to whether he can game manage and kick the Maroons to victory, taking the pressure off Cameron Munster at five-eighth who can then go and play his natural game, which is one of the biggest threats anywhere in the competition.

If Munster is doing that, he will naturally put pressure on through his running, and undoubtedly combine brilliantly with Kalyn Ponga and Harry Grant.

It could be curtains for the Blues if that does happen.

Can the Blues go with Queensland's bench?
One of the big questions after teams were named last week was around the Blues bench.

You can certainly make the argument for Jacob Saifiti. His numbers aren't atrocious, and while the likes of Keaon Koloamatangi, Jackson Ford and Terrell May have all out-performed him this year in the key metrics, sometimes, footy isn't played on the stats sheet.

What is hard to wrap your head around is the selection of Victor Radley. The Roosters aggressor has played just five games this year, struggles with discipline on-field at the best of times and hasn't really done enough to justify selection.

Compare that to Queensland though, even if Saifiti is the right call, with the likes of Patrick Carrigan and Lindsay Collins coming off the bench, and it's very difficult to see how the men in sky blue compete.

What is for sure is that Cameron Murray, who most would argue should be starting the game, is going to need a monster performance to keep the Blues rolling through the middle of it.

Which team wins the early territory battle?
With fatigue likely to play a large role in the game, as it always does come Origin time, but even more so this year given the speed of the game, whichever team can get on top early is likely going to have a huge advantage later when it comes to fatigue.

A big chunk of that is going to come from the team who controls the first half of their sets better, particularly in kick return yardage.

What the Blues have to their advantage is three of the stronger ball-runners in the competition. We all know what Brian To'o does on a weekly basis in this space for the Panthers, but James Tedesco and Tolutau Koula also don't shy away from plenty of work.

That's not to say Kalyn Ponga, Jojo Fifita and Selwyn Cobbo shy away from the hard stuff, but there is no doubt they don't have the reputation of the Blues' back three.

That said, you'd imagine Queensland's forward pack are going to be slightly more ferocious early, led by the likes of Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Reuben Cotter, so they couhld well develop space for their back three on that front alone, and given Ponga and Cobbo in particular are good downhill runners, that may be enough for them to get on top.

Prediction

It's a tough, tough game to predict.

The injury to Mitchell Moses could well improve the Blues game all-around, but it does mean a debutant goes in at five-eighth.

Regardless, the game looks as if it will be decided in the forwards, and as much as Queensland have named more of an old-school bash them up pack when compared to the Blues, that could well prove to be the difference.

With no Payne Haas for New South Wales, and big question marks over the bench, expect a tight opening before Queensland sneak away with a narrow win in a topsy-turvy affair.

Queensland by 4

Key game information: NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, Game 1, 2026

Kick-off: Wednesday, May 27, 8:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Channel 9 from 7pm (AEST)
Online: Live, 9Now from 7pm (AEST)
Betting: Blues $1.67, Maroons $2.23