The race to the NRL finals is well and truly underway, with just six weeks of the 2026 NRL season remaining.
While some clubs will have the calculators out, and others will be looking at a calendar to map when they are resting players, there is still plenty of action to pass under the bridge before we get to the knockout rounds.
For a more mathematical breakdown of every team's best and worst case scenario, as well as the run home for every side and likely finishing position, you can check out Zero Tackle's latest instalment of the run home, published every Monday morning.
This article though is going to assume that, as per our projected top eight, the mark to make the finals will be a flat 32 points in 2026 - that is, 13 wins and 3 byes.
With that said, here is what every team in the competition needs to do to make the finals in a realistic scope, rather than a mathematical one that is currently keeping a handful of teams alive.
Penrith Panthers: 0 out of 6
Sydney Roosters: 0 out of 6
New Zealand Warriors: 1 out of 6
Cronulla Sharks: 1 out of 6
The Dolphins: 2 out of 6
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 3 out of 6
Newcastle Knights: 2 out of 5
North Queensland Cowboys: 2 out of 5
Canterbury Bulldogs: 4 out of 6
Manly Sea Eagles: 4 out of 5
Canberra Raiders: 4 out of 5
Melbourne Storm: 5 out of 5
Gold Coast Titans: Can't make it
Brisbane Broncos: Can't make it
Parramatta Eels: Can't make it
Wests Tigers: Can't make it
St George Illawarra Dragons: Mathematically out of contention
It's likely that more teams will be mathematically out of contention over the next fortnight, while some will start to lock themselves into the finals.
As it stands, the Penrith Panthers are the closest to locking their September spot away - mathematically, they need one more win to do so.
The teams behind them will qualify over the coming weeks, with the Sydney Roosters likely already in, and the New Zealand Warriors and Cronulla Sharks more interested in working out whether they can maintain a top four spot rather than playing finals.
The Dolphins are in a solid spot behind the Sharks having found form during the second half of the year, but still have some work to do, while the South Sydney Rabbitohs have a tricky run home to go with injuries and are in the most danger.
The now injury ravaged Newcastle Knights are still favoured in our projections given a bye and easy run home, while the Cowboys should progress up the ladder with an easy run home too.
The Canterbury Bulldogs have moved into ninth spot but still have a mountain of work to do, while the Canberra Raiders might have left their run too late, even as the Melbourne Storm and Manly Sea Eagles falter around them.
The next installment of the NRL run home will be published on Zero Tackle next Monday morning.
If the season was 50 rounds, the dragons would still have a chance.