It has been another dramatic week in the NRL, with a handful of surprise results and plenty of injuries ensuring the projected top eight is anything but set in stone with half a dozen weeks remaining.
The Penrith Panthers returned to the winner's circle and are still on track to claim the minor premiership, while the form of the Cronulla Sharks made plenty sit up and take notice on Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, the St George Illawarra Dragons have all but locked up the wooden spoon, while the race for the top eight is still on, with the Manly Sea Eagles putting in an awful showing, the Melbourne Storm all but extinguished, and the Canberra Raiders keeping their hopes alive.
Here is every team's run home, projected finishing position, and best and wost-case scenario with six weeks to go in the season.
Round 22 tips
North Queensland Cowboys lose to Sydney Roosters
St George Illawarra Dragons lose to The Dolphins
Melbourne Storm defeat Canterbury Bulldogs
Gold Coast Titans lose to New Zealand Warriors
Penrith Panthers defeat Canberra Raiders
Brisbane Broncos defeat Newcastle Knights
Cronulla Sharks defeat South Sydney Rabbitohs
Wests Tigers defeat Parramatta Eels
1. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 1st, 34 points, + 284
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers, after their shock loss to the Broncos a week ago, managed to bounce back in what could only be described as unconvincing fashion against the Eels on Thursday.
Certainly, they have a lot more to show than what has been on offer over the last fortnight.
That said, the blip on the radar probably isn't going to ruin their season or charge for the minor premiership.
Should get right back on track against the Raiders this week before having some pretty tough games on the run in.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 9th
2. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 2nd, 32 points, + 85
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters look a team who are going places this year at times, and a team who are going to be lucky to do anything in September at others.
Their performance on Friday evening was one of the times they looked more likely to struggle, but they still got the job done against a, by fulltime at least, very understrength Knights.
James Tedesco being back on the park clearly made a difference for their attack, but they will have a proper test over the coming weeks with some tough games on the run in.
Still, they look pretty locked in for a top four spot.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 11th
3. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 3rd, 30 points, + 190
Byes remaining:
Games remaining
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors were brought back to Earth on Saturday, putting in one of their worst performances of 2026 to drop a game to the Canterbury Bulldogs.
It's not the end of the world for the Warriors, but they certainly can't let a rot start with a potential banana skin this weekend against the Titans, before they host the Panthers.
We still have them winning four of their final six at the moment to hang onto a spot in the top four, although the current maths says just three wins would probably be enough to ensure a second bite at the cherry in September.
Certainly a club to watch in the next few weekls.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Down 2
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 12th
4. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 4th, 30 points, + 161
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 24: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Sharks have strengthened their grip on a spot in the top four, picking up their eighth win in nine starts with a resounding win over the Sea Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
Cronulla could easily make a claim to being the competition's most in-form side right now, and given the way the way they are playing, and their pretty straightforward run home, it's tough to see where they drop a game.
They are, as a result, the only team we are tipping to win their next six.
Inevitably, that probably won't hold, but right now, they look well on track to host a qualifying final which would be a dramatic turnaround from where they started the season.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Up 2
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 12th
5. The Dolphins
Current position: 5th, 28 points, + 84
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Dolphins have gone and freshened up with their final bye of the season and will now look to embark on the run home at somewhere near full strength.
This is the year the Dolphins should make the finals, and plenty would have to go wrong over the closing weeks with a run home that looks simple enough on paper for them to slip up and not qualify.
Whether they can make the top four or not is maybe the big question.
We have them winning four of their final six, but a fifth win could get them into the top four.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 12th
6. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 6th, 26 points, + 78
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
A win we weren't counting on against the Storm, as well as Manly's continuing struggle, sees a change in the make-up of the predicted top eight, with South Sydney now setting the mark to qualify on 32 points.
That requires them winning three of their last six, which, given some inconsistencies on the park and a tricky enough run home certainly isn't a guarantee.
It would, however, be a dismal finish to the year for the Rabbitohs to miss from here given they have advanced to 26 points.
Maybe the big question is how they perform in the next few weeks minus Tallis Duncan and Cameron Murray, although our tips had them losing to Cronulla and Canterbury in the next three weeks anyway before recovering in the final three weeks.
Likely finish: Up 1
Change from last week: 8th
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 16th
7. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 7th, 26 points, + 36
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
In what may have been the most costly game of the season for any team, the Knights lost Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas to season-ending injuries on Friday evening against the Roosters.
That leaves them vulnerable to missing the top eight, although they are lucky with the run home, playing teams not currently in the top eight over the next three weeks, then the struggling Sea Eagles, the Warriors, and finishing the year with a bye.
It's that bye that means they probably only need to win two of their five games to qualify for the top eight - we suspect they will do just that, but it's a tricky one to get a read on at the moment.
Their back-to-back road trips in the next fortnight, the second of which against the Raiders our future predicted tip has changed for, could be season-defining.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 16th
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 26 points, - 28
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
Maybe the biggest question now for the Cowboys is how they will perform over the next couple of games at the very least without star half Tom Dearden.
His second injury of the year certainly leaves them vulnerable, but a critical win over the Broncos on the weekend means they keep the inside running for a spot in the finals at this point.
We have flipped our tip for their clash with the Roosters this weekend which makes it a little trickier, but at this stage, their run home is simple enough that we have them advancing up to sixth on the table and still booking a home elimination final.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 16th
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 9th, 24 points, - 58
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs have a last ditch opportunity to turn a corner after surprising the Warriors over the weekend.
It's a win that has pushed them up to ninth spot on the table, but they very likely will need three, or potentially even four, more wins from their final six games to qualify for the top eight.
That kicks off this week in Melbourne against the understrength Storm, and they have what can only be described as a tricky run home beyond that.
They are closer than they were a week ago, so the chance is there.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Up 2
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 16th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 22 points, + 90
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away - Perth)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Manly have really hit the skids in the last couple of weeks, and have a much-needed bye coming up this weekend.
Kieran Foran's side's chances of getting to the top eight were made exponentially tougher with a loss to the Sharks on Sunday, although they aren't out of the mix yet.
The side from the Northern Beaches likely need to find at least three, or even four wins from their last five to make the finals though, and with the Storm, Dolphins, Warriors and now injury-ravaged Knights on the way in, that might be a bridge too far for a side who have over-achieved massively given where they started the campaign.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Down 2
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 16th
11. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 11th, 22 points, - 35
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders have finally fouind their mojo at the right end of the season, having racked up 130 points over their last 3 games, winning all of them.
It has left them in with a shot at making the finals, although the next three or so weeks are going to be a real test of their mettle as they clash with some very good teams.
Ultimately, Ricky Stuart's side have probably left their run too late and will need to win three or four of their last five to have a shot at the finals.
That looks a bridge too far.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 16th
12. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 12th, 20 points, - 12
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Storm have yet more injury concerns with Harry Grant suffering an injury over the weekend.
Craig Bellamy's side are starting to approach miracle territory to make the finals, with Cameron Munster also out for the time being.
They are likely to get both Grant and Munster back after their bye in a few weeks, but if they are any chance of making the finals, wins against Canterbury and Manly will be critical.
They likely need at least four of their last five to qualify.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 3rd
Worst finishing spot: 17th
13. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 13th, 18 points, - 86
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)
The Titans look a side ready to turn a corner, and will certainly be an attacking threat come 2027.
The next six weeks are going to be an intriguing follow. They have five of those six at home, so get a benefit from that, but also have a nightmare run with all six opponents currently in the top eight.
Their win over the admittedly woeful Dragons at Kogarah on Sunday showed their attacking talent, but they'll have stiffer tests.
If they win six from six, they are a chance at playing finals footy.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
14. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 14th, 18 points, - 132
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos loss to the Cowboys on the weekend all but ends their charge to the finals, as much as it's mathematically still possible.
Brisbane have had what can only be described as an awful season, with Michael Maguire under plenty of pressure.
Their last six weeks will be all about building for next year, with a perfect run home giving an outside chance of playing finals footy.
We have them winning a couple, but not in that ballpark.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
15. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 15th, 18 points, -182
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Parramatta fought hard against the Panthers on Thursday night, but came up short in the areas they have struggled at throughout the year, with their attack and discipline falling short.
They do sit on 18 points so could still get to 30 with six from six, but they have a tricky run in.
It's hard to see Jason Ryles' side winning more than two of those games.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
16. Wests Tigers
Current position:
Byes remaining:
Games remaining
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
The Tigers are quickly turning into a rabble off the field, and it seemed to impact their on-field effort over the weekend as they had the doors blown off against the Raiders.
The joint-venture copping 50 might bring with it a response this weekend against the Eels, and they could also win on the other side of their bye against the Dragons, but the last three games are against finals bound teams.
Benji Marshall needs to find answers and fast.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Down 2
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position:
Byes remaining:
Games remaining
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons were back to their worst against the Tigers on Sunday as they limp towards the end of an awful season.
The Red V have a tricky run in too, playing plenty of sides in the finals mix. There are a couple of potentially winnable games, but right now, it's hard to see them beating anyone.
To avoid the wooden spoon, they will likely need to win five or even all six of their final six.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 11th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
