The South Sydney Rabbitohs will head into the finals as heavy favourites to advance out of the first week when they clash with the understrength Newcastle Knights on Friday evening.
For the second year in a row, the minor premiers don't open the finals, but that gives us an immediate knockout fixture.
The Rabbitohs have been one of the more inconsistent teams throughout the course of the year, but their ability to put points up in a hurry and dominate on the back of it, has seen then finish in sixth spot, and earn the all-important hosting rights this weekend.
In truth, that is as big a boost as any, with the road trip to the Hunter being a tough one at the best of times.
Their recent form has continued those inconsistency question marks.
A big win over the resting Roosters, a big win over the Titans, and wins over the Eels and Bulldogs litter their final five weeks of the season, but that is all offset by a 19-point loss to the New Zealand Warriors where they conceded 45 in Round 25 on home soil.
Maybe that isn't the end of the world if it's a one-off, but defensive issues are certainly the key question mark for the Rabbitohs.
The Rabbitohs have only conceded more than 40 points twice this season, but they have conceded more than 30 on nine occasions.
Maybe, if there is a positive to be taken, it's that the bulk of those were in the first half of the season, and they seem to have slowly adjusted to the rules and pace of the game throughout the course of the year.
They are still heavily reliant on a number of players to spark their attack, led by Latrell Mitchell, while selection questions also linger heading into the finals with Matt Dufty recalled at fullback.
At the very least, South Sydney aren't all that understrength as they head in to the business stage of the year.
The same can't be said for the Knights, who have been, in a word brave.
Twin season ending injuries to Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas in Round 21 against the Sydney Roosters had the potential to nuke their season on the spot, but instead, they have kept fighting.
Wins against the Broncos, Raiders and Titans all but locked up their finals spot, although the concern for Newcastle is they copped 44 points against Manly and 46 against the Warriors leading in to their bye that concluded the regular season.
That game against the Warriors was played with 12 men for the most part after Jacob Saifiti ended his season with a horror high tackle.
That is three big names out for Justin Holbrook's side, and while they have outperformed expectations, it's tough to see how so much experience off the park come the biggest time of year allows them to put up a winning performance.
That all said, prior to their final two games of the year, the Knights have had only conceded more than 40 points once all year, way back in Round 6 against the Wests Tigers, and it has been clear for the most part that the playing group have bought in to everything Justin Holbrook has asked for.
Team news
South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Matthew Dufty 2. Alex Johnston 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Jack Wighton 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Jayden Sullivan 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Brandon Smith 10. Keaon Koloamatangi 11. David Fifita 12. Tallis Duncan 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jye Gray 15. Lachlan Hubner 16. Sean Keppie 17. Jamie Humphreys 18. Adam Elliott 19. Latrell Siegwalt 21. Talanoa Penitani
The Rabbitohs have recalled Matt Dufty to fullback for the start of the finals, with Jye Gray dropping back to the interchange bench.
Euan Aitken is also devastatingly out of what would have been his first finals series in a decade, with Tallis Duncan recalled from a rest to replace him.
Adam Elliott drops back to the bench, with the Rabbitohs naming a side that was otherwise just about as expected.
Newcastle Knights
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Fletcher Sharpe 7. Sandon Smith 8. Tyson Frizell 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Cody Hopwood 11. Jermaine McEwen 12. Francis Manuleleua 13. Mathew Croker 14. Harrison Graham 15. Lachlan Crouch 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Thomas Cant 18. Fletcher Hunt 19. Toby Winter 20. Kyle McCarthy
The Knights have lost Jacob Saifiti to suspension and Trey Mooney to injury in a new double blow to their middle third.
They do get Tyson Frizell back from suspension, while Cody Hopwood will also start up front.
Phoenix Crossland is also back from a knee clean out in a huge boost for the Knights, with Harrison Graham dropping back to the bench.
History
Overall record: Played 51, Knights 31, Rabbitohs 20
Last five: Knights 4, Rabbitohs 1
Record at Sydney Football Stadium:
Record in finals: Played 1, Rabbitohs 1, Knights 0
This season's matches
Round 19: Rabbitohs 26 defeat Knights 24 at Accor Stadium
Round 9: Knights 42 defeat Rabbitohs 38 at McDonald Jones Stadium
Keys to the game
Matt Dufty's defensive organisation
One of the issues in Matt Dufty's game, right throughout his career, has been his defence.
There is little doubt it has improved over the second half of the year, and his communication has come along with it, but he is still well short of Jye Gray's level here.
It's probably why Dufty being picked ahead of Gray is any level of surprise, although, in the modern game, Wayne Bennett has clearly gone to favour the guy he believes can add more points.
It's pretty much as simple as that.
But that doesn't mean the scrutiny on Dufty will suddenly disappear.
If he doesn't get it right in defence, the likes of Kalyn Ponga re going to have something of a field day.
Speaking of.
The influence of Kalyn Ponga
If the Knights are going to win without plenty of players on the park, then it's likely going to come on the back of Kalyn Ponga.
The star fullback is just that - a star.
When he is on, there are few in the competition who can hold a candle to the level he brings in attack.
He will need to be on and then some to go with the Rabbitohs who can put points on in a hurry, and have attacking weapons right across the park.
You only need to look at the form of David FIfita recently to understand that, but the return of Latrell Mitchell, the work of Dufty. The Rabbitohs will score.
It means the Knights need to go with them, and Ponga is the man to lead it.
Phoenix Crossland's return
The Knights played their final game of the regular season without Phoenix Crossland, and while they played most of it with just 12 men, they were in the game against the top four Warriors for the most part.
It could have been a better result - if that's even possible given the early send off - with Crossland.
The New Zealand international has quietly developed in to one of the NRL's most consistent dummy halves, and whether it be through his enormous tackle counts or strong service out of the ruck, the Knights need him at his best to be a chance.
Cameron Murray's performance
Cameron Murray is the Rabbitohs most important player, and it's not really that close.
The lock forward is the best in his position anywhere in the game, and if Bennett's side are going to make a run through September, then it will be led by the work of Murray
His ability to find his front and play the ball quickly, to make the right decisions in ball playing, and rarely miss tackles, make him the complete middle third forward.
The Knights have a serviceable option in Mat Croker, but with Jacob Saifiti and Trey Mooney out, the middle is understrength.
They will need to find a way to contain Murray.
Newcastle's outside backs laying the platform
The Knights, as we have spoken about, are very, very short in the middle third.
It means there is a good chance they are going to spend significant chunks of this game on the back foot.
That can be offset though by using the old Penrith Panthers trick - enormous metres before and after contact from your back three.
Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew, and by extension Ponga, might just decide what sort of opportunities the Knights get on the turf of Moore Park during Friday evening.
Prediction
The Rabbitohs put on 50 last week, and while that wasn't exactly a great hit out for the finals against a resting Roosters, their form has been pretty solid over the last month and change.
The Knights aren't out of this, but they will need a lot to go right to continue their incredible season of overachievement. They simply have too much talent on the sideline.
Rabbitohs by 10.
Key game information: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights, NRL qualifying final
Kick-off: Friday, Septmeber 11, 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Channel 9, Fox Sports
Online: Live, Kayo Sports, 9 Now
Betting: Rabbitohs $1.40, Knights $2.99
Referee: Ashley Klein
