A week of surprise results has only brought the ladder closer together, with the fight for finals places in September well and truly on.
Round 20 kicked off with the Panthers stumbling against the Broncos, a result that keeps Brisbane's slim finals hopes alive, while the Sharks knocking off the Knights at home was also against the odds.
The Raiders beating the Rabbitohs, and the Sea Eagles coming up short against the Titans also headlined the weekend, while the Roosters, Warriors, Bulldogs and Dolphins all took care of business.
With injuries also biting hard across the competition, there are some changes to future tips, and combined with games going against the run of expectation over the weekend, it means there are plenty of teams shuffling on the forecast final ladder.
From next week, we will also introduce best and worst-case finishing scenarios for each team as part of the run home each Monday on Zero Tackle - there are simply too many permetations to calculate effectively at this stage.
Here is how each team's run home is shaping, and where things stand after an enthralling, yet in other ways simply frustrating, Round 20.
Round 21 tips
Parramatta Eels lose to Penrith Panthers
Newcastle Knights lose to Sydney Roosters
South Sydney Rabbitohs lose to Melbourne Storm
Canberra Raiders defeat Wests Tigers
Canterbury Bulldogs lose to New Zealand Warriors
North Queensland Cowboys defeat Brisbane Broncos
St George Illawarra Dragons defeat Gold Coast Titans
Manly Sea Eagles defeat Cronulla Sharks
1. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 1st, 32 points, + 278
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
An awfully unexpected loss for the Panthers over the weekend as they continued what has been a torrid record when playing on Thursday night's, this time against the Brisbane Broncos.
Ultimately, they are a long way ahead, and despite some games on the run home that aren't easy ones, they should bounce back with a statement this weekend and then run to the finish line.
With a change in tip for their game in Melbourne given that club's injuries, we now anticipate Penrith may well use their loss to Brisbane as a wake-up call and arrive at September on the back of seven straight wins.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 2nd, 30 points, + 202
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors clung onto a fairly unconvincing win against the Dragons over the weekend, picking up two points that keeps them well and truly in the hunt for the minor premiership.
Their performance will raise eyebrows, but it's not enough for us to go changing tips against Andrew Webster's side at this stage.
We expect them to still pick up five of their last seven, only dropping games to the Broncos and Rabbitohs when they hit the road in Round 24 and 25.
That will be enough to secure second spot, although if things go pear-shaped they could still tumble their way towards the bottom of the top eight.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 3rd, 30 points, + 84
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Like the Warriors, it wasn't exactly a confident win for the Roosters against the Storm, but they did manage to get the job done.
Plenty went their way throughout the 80 minutes, and they had to stick with it against a gallant Storm outfit who are now hanging by a thread on their own finals hopes.
The Roosters need to keep winning if they are going to make the top four, and it's hard to see them not doing that for the most part given their run in.
We still have them winning five of their last seven to claim a spot in the top four.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
4. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 4th, 28 points, + 125
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 24: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The first of the games we didn't tip last week, and a big one with both the Sharks and Knights in the top eight race.
Ultimately, it's the sort of win which propels the Sharks into a solid top-four grounding, and one that, given their run home, should hold until the end of the season.
With things going against Melbourne, we now have the Sharks winning that one too, and their only loss on the run home coming this weekend on the Northern Beaches where they are horrendously overdue for a loss.
Our anticipation is they could actually drop a game somewhere else too and still finish in fourth spot.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Up 2
5. The Dolphins
Current position: 5th, 26 points, + 64
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Bye
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Dolphins had to turn things around quickly after their horrid loss to the Sharks last weekend, and did just that in a finals altering battle against the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
The match puts the Dolphins back up to fifth on the current table as it stands at the end of Round 20, and leaves the club in with a sniff of getting to the top four.
They'll need to play very, very well for that, and their run in might just have a few curveballs.
Still, they should have enough about them to now sit with a home elimination final, probably only on for and against, but that will be more than enough for Kristian Woolf's side.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Up 1
6. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 5th, 26 points, + 37
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
A bit of a disaster really for the Knights over the weekend, falling to the Cronulla Sharks in a game one might have expected them to win.
Justin Holbrook's side have had an incredible climb this year, but they are quite cleary still a little bit away from premiership contention.
We still have them winning four of their final six - the three at home, and the road trip to play the Raiders - but with the loss on the weekend, that is enough to drop them down the table two places.
They'll need to pick up some unexpected wins or have results go their way now to qualify for the top four after handing the Sharks the keys on Friday.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Down 3
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 6th, 24 points, + 76
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
There is a lot of football to be played yet in 2026, but the Rabbitohs dropping their Round 20 fixture to the Raiders could be the moment their finals hopes went up in smoke.
A tough comment to make about a side currently in the top eight, but they have an exceptionally tough run in, playing a number of top eight sides, and others like the Storm and Bulldogs which ultimately could be anything.
Ultimately, the Rabbitohs biggest issue this year has been their consistency, and it's a bad time for them to be falling back to the pack.
Wayne Bennett has his work cut out for him.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Up 1
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 24 points, - 36
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys loss to the Dolphins is a tough pill to swallow for Todd Payten, who now has big selection questions to answer for the remainder of the run home.
He has more than enough winnable games though - in fact, all of them, in our calculations.
With the exception of the Roosters at home, which they actually are tipped to win for the purposes of this calculation, it's hard to see where they lose in their final six.
Manage to do that, and with the two points from their bye, we still have the Townsville-based side climbing the ladder to fifth spot.
The Broncos, who come fresh off a win over Panthers, will be a very intriguing watch this weekend.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
9. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 9th, 22 points, + 126
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away - Perth)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
The Sea Eagles suffered a shock loss to the Titans on Sunday afternoon which is raising questions over just about everything Kieran Foran is doing, and frankly, with good reason.
It's not an overly straight forward run to the finish line for Manly either, but if they make the finals, they will do so having beat a number of the competition's top sides in the closing weeks of the campaign.
It doesn't leave them out of finals contention, but does remove the room for any slip ups.
That means they need to take care of business at home against the Sharks on the weekend, which isn't a foregone conclusion, and likely beat the Dolphins and Dragons at home as well.
If they lose one of those, or other results go against them, they'll need a win on the road. Foran's side are walking on a tightrope.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Up 1
10. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 10th, 22 points, - 70
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs finally got some forward momentum with a heavy win over the awful Tigers during Round 20.
It keeps them in touch with the top eight, and firmly a chance of qualifying, but we suspect they will have to win at least four of their last seven.
On paper, with ganes against the Warriors, Storm, Roosters, Rabbitohs and Panthers, that looks a fairly impossible stretch for the blue and white.
They will give it a good crack, but will fall short.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Nil
11. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 11th, 20 points, - 10
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
An exceptionally brave performance from the Storm over the weekend - they fought tooth and nail against the Roosters, but ultimately came up short in the face of a number of, let's call them questionable refereeing decisions.
It's a loss they were probably expected to have, but with news Cameron Munster is out for at least a month since publication last week, and Will Warbrick's season-ending injury, it's now impossible to see them making the top eight.
We have flipped a couple of results - namely against the Panthers and Sharks - in our future long-range tipping and unfortunately for Craig Bellamy, that means he is on track to miss the finals for the first time as a head coach.
It will bring to an end one of sport's most incredible streaks.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Down 2
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 20 points, - 81
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders picked up an unexpected win at home on Saturday against the Rabbitohs, and it keeps their slim finals hopes alive.
They'll need to go on a run of wins to do it, but with a tricky list of games to the finish line, and Hudson Young to miss the rest of the season, we aren't moving from last week's prediction.
We have them picking up wins against the Tigers, while they also have a bye - they'd likely have to pick up at least three of their other five to stand a chance of playing finals footy.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Up 1
13. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 13th, 18 points, - 124
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 22: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos season has been spiralling out of control for a number of weeks now, but they turned that around on the weekend, welcoming a cavalry of players back to beat competition leaders the Panthers.
Few saw it coming, but it does leave the Broncos in with a snowballs chance in hell of making it to September where they could defend their title from last year.
That chance though would need them to win the two games they are expected to win, against the Warriors and Raiders, and probably win all four of their other games.
In short, unlikely.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 18 points, - 162
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 21: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
The Tigers had yet another awful loss on the weekend, with the joint-venture stumbling their way to a horror show against the Bulldogs.
Suspensions will knock them around on their trip to Canberra next week, and while they have winnable games against the Eels and Dragons between now and the end of the season, anything more than that looks a serious stretch.
The finals, while mathematically still more than possible, are also well beyond Benji Marshall's side who once sat in the top four.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Down 1
15. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 176
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 21: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Eels have had their bye on the run home,k and now get back to the reality of trying to escape the bottom four.
They are still a possibility of winning the spoon too, although that looks unlikely. Still, they'd like to do enough to avoid Round 27 becoming spoonbowl in the 'Gong.
They may not win between now and then, but the Dragons won't do enough either to trouble them.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
16. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 16th, 16 points, - 106
Byes remaining: 0
The Titans picked up a big win over the Sea Eagles on Sunday afternoon, and now set their attention towards a final seven weeks that features five home games.
Maybe it's enough to see them get away from the very bottom of the ladder.
We can't see it, but the chance exists.
Games remaining
Round 21: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 10 points, - 247
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 20: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 21: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons fought incredibly hard in Auckland, but came up short against the Warriors. Still, recent weeks have been more positive for the club.
If they are any chance of avoiding the spoon, they must take care of business at home against the Titans this weekend before looking ahead to other games.
Hard to see them finishing anywhere other than rock bottom though - they have just left themselves with way too much to do.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. Penrith Panthers
2. New Zealand Warriors
3. Sydney Roosters
4. Cronulla Sharks
5. North Queensland Cowboys
6. The Dolphins
7. Newcastle Knights
8. Manly Sea Eagles
9. South Sydney Rabbitohs
10. Melbourne Storm
11. Canterbury Bulldogs
12. Canberra Raiders
13. Wests Tigers
14. Brisbane Broncos
15. Parramatta Eels
16. Gold Coast Titans
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
Qualifying final 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters
Elimination final 1: North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles
Elimination final 2: The Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights
‘that looks a fairly impossible stretch for the blue and white.’ That’s insane, we are a chance of winning these games. Also Raiders are a good team so it wasn’t really a surprise they won