The NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons will head to Suncorp Stadium for the State of Origin decider on Wednesday evening, with the Maroons taking all the momentum into Game 3 of the 2026 series.
It might be one game a piece heading to Brisbane, but in truth, the series has been dominated from start to finish by Billy Slater's side.
Queensland had complete control of Game 1 until Kalyn Ponga was sent off, with the Maroons then squandering a 14-point lead, before Game 2 would have seen a larger margin than the recorded 20 points without a late consolation effort from Mitch Barnett.
As one might expect with a team in such form, Slater has kept his changes to the minimum, and Queensland will go into the decider stable and as the clear favourites to snap a two-match losing streak on home soil, and in the process, lift the shield for the fourth time in five years.
The Blues, on the other hand, under Laurie Daley who could very well be heading into his final match in charge of the state, will be out to flip the script that was set up so convincingly in Melbourne.
They'll have to do so with yet more new combinations across the park, and big question marks over their ability to not only score points, but defend.
If there is a positive, it's their recent record in Brisbane, but with an attack that was stunted across the opening two games, and the changes made unlikely to solve that, it could well be an uphill battle for Daley and his troops.
Team news
QLD Maroons
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Tom Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11. Briton Nikora, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange: 14. Max Plath, Patrick Carrigan, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Reece Walsh, 19. Murray Taulagi
As you might expect after such an excellent performance in Game 2, Queensland coach Billy Slater has seen little reason to change his side, and will operate with exactly the same run-on outfit that he had in Game 1.
On the bench, Patrick Carrigan is a surprise early return from a syndesmosis injury to replace Lindsay Collins, who is out with concussion.
20th man Corey Horsburgh has been on standby for him, but it appears Carrigan will pass fit to play.
Kulikefu Finefeuiaki was one of the head-scratching misses for Game 1 in Slater's side, and while he featured briefly from the bench in his Game 2 Origin debut, he has been sent back to club footy for the decider, with the more experienced Jeremiah Nanai back from injury to take the free spot on the interchange.
NSW Blues
1. James Tedesco, 2. Jack Bostock, 3. Bradmamn Best, 4. Stephen Crichton, 19. Mark Nawaqanitawase, 6. Mitchell Moses, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Payne Haas, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Mitch Barnett, 11. Hudson Young, 12. Liam Martin, 13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange: 14. Cameron Murray, 15. Addin Fonua-Blake, 16. Haumole Olakau'atu, 17. Blayke Brailey, 18. Ethan Strange, 19 Tolutau Koula
Exactly what thoughts have been running through Laurie Daley's head when he has picked his side throughout this year's series is a bit of a mystery.
Each game has raised eyebrows, and Game 3 has done the same.
Most would have expected Brian To'o to be a walk-up starter, however, his well-documented issues under the high ball mean Jack Bostock gets a run, while Tolutau Koula, who has been one of the Blues better performers through the opening two games, is dumped to the bench. Kotoni Staggs, who had an average Game 2, misses out entirely, with an out of sorts Stephen Crichton returning alongside Bradman Best in a new-look centre pairing.
Mitchell Moses remains at five-eighth despite struggling in Game 2 while Ethan Strange had an incredible Game 1, while Reece Robson remains at hooker.
In the forwards, it's almost the status quo. Liam Martin however returns to Origin, with Dylan Lucas dropped entirely. Haumole Olakau'atu, who was a surprise axing for Game 2, returns but only on the bench in place of Victor Radley, while Blayke Brailey is back from a broken arm for Apisai Koroisau who failed to get onto the park in Game 2.
History
Overall head-to-head record: Played 134, Queensland 61, New South Wales 61, drawn 2
Overall series record: Played 44, Queensland 25, New South Wales 17, drawn 2
Last five series: QLD 3 - NSW 2
Record at Suncorp Stadium (since 2003): Played 29, Queensland 20, NSW 9
Record at Lang Park (total): Played 62, Queensland 39, NSW 22, drawn 1
Record in Queensland: Played 66, Queensland 42, NSW 23, drawn 1
Keys to the game
The Blues' creativity and attacking game plan
In Game 2, the Blues came out with a changed game plan, trying to adapt to having both Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses in the halves.
Unfortunately, that game plan fell flat, and when you pick it apart, it's not hard to see why.
The Blues spent most of the game trying to go around, and around, and around the Maroons. Payne Haas had maybe the quietest game of his Origin career, and the centres and wingers were dominated.
The changes the Blues have made to the backline suggest they might come in with a similar strategy for Game 3, which is almost forced by the lack of engine room players on the six-man bench Laurie Daley has at his disposal.
In short, the selections didn't make a lot of sense and may well have forced a Blues game plan that they tried to stick with despite it clearly not working.
They must use the middle third of the park and a strong kicking game if they are going to topple the Queenslanders. It's really as simple as that.
Sam Walker's performance
Sam Walker has been sensational through the first two games of the series.
He was likely going to be named man of the match in the series-opener at the Olympic Stadium in Sydney before Queensland lost the plot with 12 men on the park, and then was named man of the match in Game 2 as Queensland raced away with a big win at the MCG.
Right now, he is on track to win player of the series if Queensland win, and has looked like, with the exception of the 15-minute period when Cameron Munster was being checked for a concussion during Game 2, that he belongs at this level.
But he is still young, still learning the ropes, and only in his third Origin game.
It feels unfair to say, but Queensland are very, very unlikely to claim a win if Walker isn't somewhere near the level he produced in Game 2.
Cameron Murray's role
Anyone who has said anything about this series is seemingly in the same boat - Cameron Murray must start.
It was said before Game 1. He didn't. The Blues fell behind. Murray came on. The Blues played a lot better.
It was said again before Game 2. He didn't. The Blues looked better once Murray came onto the park again, although not consistently.
Still, it's clear that the South Sydney Rabbitohs star who is rated by most as the best lock forward in the game needs to be on the park from the start, and for as many minutes as possible.
The Blues have Isaah Yeo at lock who is very good there within the Penrith system at club level, but this isn't club level.
He is an excellent prop at Origin level, but the Blues don't shuffle and use him there until it's far, far too late.
Harry Grant being able to play 80 minutes again
One of the big advantages through the first two games of the series for the men from north of the Tweed has been the number of minutes Harry Grant has been able to play out of dummy half.
The Melbourne Storm star has Max Plath from the Dolphins as his back up, but if we are being fair dinkum, Plath is not Harry Grant at dummy half, and also provides too much in the lock forward role to suggest minutes at dummy half would be to Queensland's advantage.
That, ultimately, means the Maroons want Grant on the field for big minutes again coming off a sensational Game 2 performance where he was among the best players on the park.
The dummy half has, if you watch Queensland's defence, actually been hiding a position or two wider than he does play for the Storm, and has played for Queensland previously, in a bid to play the big minutes.
It'll work again if the Blues don't find him. In fact, you'd go as far as to say the plan for NSW should be to make Grant make at least a tackle per minute in the first 20 minutes.
Prediction
Queensland have all the running and momentum coming into the decider, and with a team who will be stable, and pretty close to full strength, it's tough to see them not winning this.
Questions do still linger over some of what they dished up in the opening two games, and halfback Sam Walker is still very new to the Origin environment, but they are deserved favourites.
The Blues will need to play their best game of the series by a considerable distance to challenge Slater's side, and each change Daley has had to made, as well as some adjustment in tactics, will need to work as close to perfectly as it can.
Even if that does happen, Queensland are very, very unlikely to drop three straight games on the turf of Lang Park, and in fact, based on the way the series has played out, even a close game may be too much of a battle for the Blues, in a match that could well bring down the curtain on a number of Origin careers - not just that of coach Daley.
Queensland by 16.
Key game information: QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues, Game 3, 2026
Kick-off: Wednesday, July 8, 8:05pm (AEST)
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
TV: Live, Channel 9 from 7pm (AEST)
Online: Live, 9Now from 7pm (AEST)
Betting: Maroons $1.55, Blues $2.50
Match officials
Referee: Ashley Klein
Touch judges: Matt Noyen and Phil Henderson
Bunker official: Chris Butler
