The State of Origin period is almost upon us, with the final full round before selection seeing teams push for critical competition points.

It's about this time of year where the race to be the leading NRL try-scorer starts heating up too, with Ryan Papenhuyzen leading the way on 12 after crossing for four of his own last weekend. Jesse Arthars is next, but is two tries behind the star fullback.

Each week on Zero Tackle, we will take a crack at naming the five most likely scorers for the weekend ahead, as well as a value play.

Here are our five for Round 11.

Matt Burton (Canterbury Bulldogs)

 2025-05-16T10:00:00Z 
 
 
Accor Stadium
CAN   
24
FT
20
   SYD
   Crowd: 30,166

If there is a player overdue for a try, it's Matt Burton. Coming into this season, he had 39 tries in 102 NRL games. He is yet to score in his five appearances so far this year.

He comes up against a Roosters side, who, particularly when fatiguing have struggled to defend the middle third efficiently this year.

His speed and ability to play the supports should leave him in good stead to grab his first four pointer of the year in this clash.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (New Zealand Warriors)

 2025-05-17T05:00:00Z 
 
 
Suncorp Stadium
DOL   
12
FT
16
   NZW
   Crowd: 32,165

The Dolphins have struggled on the edges in defence so far this year, and that should pave the way for plenty of points to be scored by the Warriors, who are on the cusp of blowing teams off the park, but not quite putting it altogether in attack.

Regardless, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is a proven quantity when it comes to scoring tries, and should be favoured to find his way across the stripe here in only his second game back from an injury that ruined the start of his campaign.

Xavier Coates (Melbourne Storm)

 2025-05-17T09:35:00Z 
 
 
Sharks Stadium
CRO   
31
FT
26
   MEL
   Crowd: 11,570

How Xavier Coates didn't score last weekend during a 64-0 rout of the Wests Tigers is something of a mystery, but is also explained by how poor the Tigers were - the Storm were just able to continue finding so much space, that Coates was doing more assisting back on his inside than he was running for the corner.

That ultimately means the Storm will run into a far tougher opposition this weekend in the Sharks, where Coates, armed with height and pace, will be favoured as an attacking weapon once again.

The Storm score 83 per cent of their tries on the edges per Stats Insider, and the Sharks concede almost half of theirs on Coates' side of the park. This could be a smash up.

Jesse Arthars (Brisbane Broncos)

 2025-05-18T04:00:00Z 
 
 
Suncorp Stadium
BRI   
26
FT
30
   STI
   Crowd: 38,016

The Broncos love going to their wingers, and the Dragons are not very good at defending on their wings.

That is the tale of the tape coming into Sunday afternoon's game, where both clubs will be desperate to snap losing streaks.

The Broncos have scored 50 per cent of their tries on the left, and the Dragons have conceded 50 per cent on the right.

Alex Johnston (South Sydney Rabbitohs)

 2025-05-18T08:15:00Z 
 
 
Campbelltown
WST   
12
FT
22
   SOU
   Crowd: 11,102

Alex Johnston returns from injury for the second time this season to recommence his pursuit of the try-scoring record held by Ken Irvine.

He scored in his only first-grade game this year, and despite his absence, the Rabbitohs have continually attacked to the spot he would normally be, scoring 63 per cent of their tries on the left.

Given the Tigers give up 50 per cent of their tries on the right edge, this promises a one-way traffic performance for Johnston against a defence that consistently makes poor reads.

Value play of the week - Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)

 2025-05-17T07:30:00Z 
 
 
QLD Country Bank
NQL   
6
FT
24
   MAN
   Crowd: 18,965

The Sea Eagles concede a high number of tries through the middle third of the park when compared to the rest of the competition, coming in at 26 per cent so far this year.

The Cowboys know how to find their way over the try line as well, and with Tom Dearden moving to halfback, could have some new shapes about them this weekend.

Of their middle third options, Coen Hess could well be the most likely to go over. He hasn't scored yet this year, but does have 34 tries in his 174 NRL games, and has never gone a season in his career - dating back to 2015 - without scoring.