The final week of the group stage at the 2026 Rugby League World Cup has arrived and there are still plenty of things that can change ahead of the semi-finals.
The somewhat strange tournament format means the convoluted Group B and C is far tougher to work out, with four teams still technically able to reach the semi-finals, although only three likely.
Australia is guaranteed to play a semi-final out of Group A, while New Zealand needs to treat its clash with Fiji as more than just a training gallop on the weekend.
Here is how it will all play out in the final week of the group stage.
Group A
Fixtures
Sat, Oct 31: New Zealand vs Fiji, 3:30pm (AEDT) at CBUS Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Sat, Oct 31: Australia vs Cook Islands, 8:05pm (AEDT) at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Current standings
1. Australia - 4 points, + 16
2. New Zealand - 2 points, + 64
3. Fiji - 2 points, + 14
4. Cook Islands, 0 points, - 94
Australia, which has beaten both New Zealand and Fiji, is guaranteed to finish top of the group.
The first tie-breaker at the World Cup is head-to-head results, and with Australia recording wins against both of those nations, it can treat its clash with the Cook Islands as a training gallop. Although a scare against Fiji and worries over form and combinations should stop it from looking at it that way.
New Zealand must win against Fiji to maintain its spot in the semi-finals.
Fiji was excellent against Australia, and the Bati would jump into second spot with a victory owing to their performance against the Cook Islands in the opening week of the tournament which has them on two points.
The Cook Islands are eliminated regardless of results.
Group B/C
Fixtures
Fri, Oct 30: England vs Papua New Guinea, 8:05pm at WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Sun, Nov 1: Lebanon vs France, 5:40pm at CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Sun, Nov 1: Tonga vs Samoa, 8:05pm at CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Current standings
1. Samoa - 4 points, + 132
2. Tonga - 4 points, + 54
3. England - 2 points, + 64
4. Papua New Guinea - 2 points, - 34
5. Lebanon - 0 points, - 60
6. France - 0 points, - 156
Given Tonga beat England, and Samoa beat Papua New Guinea, both the Three Lions and Kumuls will need plenty to go right to advance to the finals.
For England to qualify for the semi-finals, it needs Tonga to beat Samoa, but then for the Three Lions to hammer Papua New Guinea to the extent their for and against leapfrogs Samoa - currently a 68-point difference.
For Papua New Guinea to qualify, it would need the opposite; Samoa to beat Tonga, and then for its for and against to jump by enough to bridge the gap between itself and Tonga - currently an 88-point difference.
The winner of Samoa and Tonga will qualify at the top of the group and face the winner of New Zealand and Fiji in a semi-final, to be played in Newcastle on the following Saturday. The other team to qualify will clash with Australia on the following Sunday in Sydney.
Neither Lebanon or France can qualify for the semi-finals, but one will go home with a win when they play in the dead rubber of the weekend on Sunday afternoon.
Predictions
Group A
- New Zealand to beat Fiji
- Australia to beat Cook Islands
Group B/C
- England to beat Papua New Guinea
- Lebanon to beat France
- Tonga to beat Samoa, but Samoa to hold on to a semi-final spot on for and against ahead of England.
Predicted semi-finals
- Semi-final 1: Tonga vs New Zealand at McDonald Jones Stadium, Saturday, November 7
- Semi-final 2: Australia vs Samoa at Allianz Stadium, Sunday, November 8
