Eight weeks to go: Every NRL team's run home, likely finishing position

The NRL run home is here. State of Origin is over, the major bye rounds are over, and there are just eight weeks to run in the 2026 season.

That means, for the first time, we can start to get a far clearer picture of what the final ladder might look like.

There is still plenty of action to play out on the run home, but the key games can be circled, some teams are close enough to locking in their spots, and the race to play footy in September is on.

It's time to take stock of everything, and as we did last year, every Monday on Zero Tackle, we will run a ladder projection, tell you who plays who in every game to the end of the season, and go over what your team needs to do to qualify.

Here is the state of play heading into Round 21 of the 2026 NRL season.

Follow the NRL live ladder during the run home here

1. Penrith Panthers

Current position: 1st, 32 points, + 280
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 21: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 22: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)

The Panthers head into the back end of the season as the measuring stick of the competition, returning to the spot they have held in recent years.

Last year, it took a dramatic surge during the second half of the season to make the finals, but this time around, the question will be at what point they start resting players.

The Panthers look an almost shoe-in for the minor premiership, although the run home featuring away games in Auckland and Melbourne, as well as a home clash against the Roosters, will give them a good workout before the knockouts begin.

We have them winning six of their final eight, dropping those games to the Warriors and Storm.

Likely finish: 1st

2. New Zealand Warriors

Current position: 2nd, 28 points, + 194
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 21: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 22: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)

The Warriors have pieced together quite an incredible season, given Luke Metcalf and Tanah Boyd have barely featured for Andrew Webster's side.

Everything they have tried has just about worked, and while there is a fair distance between the Panthers and the rest of the competition, the Auckland-based outfit could mount a pretty solid case as the best of the rest.

They have a run home that should ensure they hang onto a home qualifying final too, with at least five or six very winnable games, and a couple of tough tussles with the Panthers, Rabbitohs and Knights on the menu.

We do have them winning six, just dropping games in Australia against Brisbane and the Rabbitohs.

Likely finish: 2nd

3. Sydney Roosters

Current position: 3rd, 28 points, + 76
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 21: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 22: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)

The Roosters are one of the competition's better attacking outfits, and will look to put that to good use during a tricky run home that still has plenty of winnable games in it.

An even split of home and away games brings them no extra advantage, but given one of those away games is the traditional Round 27 closer against the Rabbitohs, it's less of an issue.

The tri-colours facing the Storm, Cowboys on the road, Panthers, Dolphins and Rabbitohs are going to give us a very, very good idea of where they sit, though.

We are backing them to win six of their final eight, though, dropping games against the Cowboys on the road and the Panthers. That will be enough to lock up a second bite at the cherry in September.

Likely finish: 3rd

4. Cronulla Sharks

Current position: 4th, 26 points, + 123
Byes remaining:

Games remaining
Round 20: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 21: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 22: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 24: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)

The Sharks head into the final eight weeks of the season in as good form as anybody else, having thrashed the Dolphins 66 points to nothing over the weekend.

The Sharks, as always, are going to be there come September, but the big question for Craig Fitzgibbon's side is whether they can match it with the big teams.

On the evidence of what they have produced so far this year, the answer is going to be no.

They are being tipped to pick up five wins across their final eight games, but that also won't be enough for a second chance in the finals - so they will have to do things the hard way.

Likely finish: 6th

5. Newcastle Knights

Current position: 5th, 26 points, + 39
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 21: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 22: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye

The Knights' run home is not one that will have alarm bells ringing in the Hunter.

With the exception of their final clash before a bye leading into the finals against the Warriors on the road, they may well go into just about every game as the favourites.

The Sharks and Roosters over the next fortnight will give them a good test, but playing the Roosters, as well as Manly in Round 25 at home, is big.

If they can stay fit and play to their potential - which frankly has increased the more the year has gone on - then Justin Holbrook could do the unthinkable and guide the perennial strugglers into the top four in his first season in charge. We have them not only needing to, but winning, five of their final seven to do that.

Likely finish: 4th

6. South Sydney Rabbitohs

Current position: 6th, 24 points, + 86
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 21: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 22: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)

The Rabbitohs have had some very, very good games this year, and also some very, very poor ones.

You only need to look at their last seven to see exactly what that means. Big losses conceding more than 30 points to the Dolphins, Cowboys and Panthers, as well as 28 to Manly, have been matched with wins over the Broncos, Eels and Knights.

It's been a season that is hard to get a read on, but with a tricky run home that features a trip to Canberra, a game against the Storm, and games against the Sharks, Warriors and Roosters, they are going to need to find form, and consistently, in a hurry, if they want to escape the logjam that is the middle of the table.

Unfortunately, with no byes up their sleeve and major question marks, we can only have them winning four of their last eight - that is not enough to play finals footy this year.

Likely finish: 10th

7. The Dolphins

Current position: 7th, 24 points, + 64
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 21: Bye
Round 22: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)

The first job for the Dolphins is going to be to turn things around after having the doors blown out by the Sharks over the weekend.

Clashing with the Cowboys this weekend won't be the easiest start to that, but at home, they'd have to be a good chance.

After that, they have a bye, and then only play two finals contenders over the final six weeks in Manly and the Roosters. Both of those games are away, and it's tough to see them winning either, but taking care of business in the rest of their games, as well as this weekend's game against the Cowboys, should be enough to see them into the finals.

Watch for some big attacking displays from one of the competition's more entertaining sides.

Likely finish: 7th

8. North Queensland Cowboys

Current position: 8th, 24 points, - 16
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: The Dolphins (away)
Round 21: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 22: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)

The Cowboys, a bit like the Rabbitohs a few spots up the ladder, are a very difficult team to get a read on, but they look like a side primed to be big movers over the final weeks.

They play four of their final seven - six, in fact, after this weekend's game against the Dolphins - at home, and only one of those against a team in finals contention.

With a bye to come, the expectation is they can use that to freshen up on either side of what should be four straight wins to end the season. Add that to wins at home against the Broncos and Roosters, and it could be the Cowboys pushing the door of the top four by the time it's all said and done.

Likely finish: 5th

9. Manly Sea Eagles

Current position: 9th, 22 points, + 132
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 21: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 22: Bye
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away - Perth)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)

It might be one of the great what-ifs of 2026 - what if Manly didn't start the season under Anthony Seibold?

Ultimately, those three losses could cost them a spot in the finals.

Kieran Foran's side have hit the skids a little bit in recent weeks, and some key injuries have them hurting too, but they are still a show of the finals.

Unfortunately, a run home featuring games against the Storm, Dolphins, Knights and Warriors will be a bridge too far, even with a bye left in their fixtures.

We have them winning four of their last seven and finishing outside the finals on for and against.

Likely finish: 9th

10. Melbourne Storm

Current position: 10th, 20 points, - 2
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 21: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 22: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)

The Storm are one side who never get themselves a soft run into the finals, but it wouldn't matter who they are playing this year - they need to win, and win a lot.

Craig Bellamy has never missed a finals series, and his plan will be that it's not about to start happening.

Melbourne has won four of their last five and have been quietly building up a very full head of steam on the run to September.

The fact they have three straight home games on either side of the bye is a positive, but they likely need to win all three of those, as well as another three - which we have them doing against the Rabbitohs, Broncos and Sharks - to qualify.

Likely finish: 8th

11. Canterbury Bulldogs

Current position: 11th, 20 points, - 102
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 21: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 22: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)

Calling the Bulldogs' season a disappointment probably wouldn't be doing it justice.

A top four side for most of last year, their recruitment meant raised eyebrows, and those eyebrows have not dropped since.

The Bulldogs looked like they had turned a corner in the last few weeks, but then copped 40 against the also-struggling Raiders coming off a bye over the weekend.

Their run home is mixed, but it has too many tricky games for a serious finals challenge to be mounted, even with four wins from their final eight.

Likely finish: 11th

12. Canberra Raiders

Current position: 12th, 18 points, - 91
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 21: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 22: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)

Last year's minor premiers have fallen right away this year, and while the Jamal Fogarty departure was large, that doesn't explain the enormity of the drop-off.

Ricky Stuart's side, who belted the Bulldogs on the weekend, will be looking to restore some dignity over the closing weeks of the season, and should be able to manage a win or two somewhere, but ultimately, challenging for a spot in September is now well beyond them without some miracles.

Likely finish: 13th

13. Wests Tigers

Current position: 13th, 18 points, - 130
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 21: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 22: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)

At one point, the Tigers appeared to have turned a serious corner - Benji Marshall had them absolutely humming along, and finals were in their future.

But injuries, attitude and other issues have seen the joint-venture club fall right away to the point they have now lost seven of their last nine.

The Tigers, going out in reverse, will be picked apart, but they will be better next year for the run, and would benefit from a strong finish - unfortunately, their run home isn't overly conducive to that. We have them picking up another two.

Likely finish: 12th

14. Brisbane Broncos

Current position: 14th, 16 points, - 126
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 21: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 22: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)

The Broncos have been the competition's big disappointment in 2026 - there is really no doubt about that.

Michael Maguire's side, the defending premiers, has crumbled and is all but out of finals contention. Eight straight wins might give them a way in.

That isn't going to happen, though. As defending premiers do, they face a tricky run-in. Games against Penrith, the Cowboys, the Dolphins, Warriors and Storm, as well as the Knights, mean their already long losing run could extend.

We do have them picking up a win or two against the Warriors at home to snap the losing streak and against the Raiders, but that won't be enough for them to escape the bottom four.

Likely finish: 14th

15. Parramatta Eels

Current position: 15th, 16 points, - 176
Byes remaining: 1

Games remaining
Round 20: Bye
Round 21: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 22: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)

Jason Ryles' side has had a disappointing campaign. They were never likely to win the competition this year, but the lack of improvement puts the coach firmly in the hot seat.

We have them struggling on the run home, too. A bye this week will give them a break, but then they play five finals contenders, the desperate Tigers and the Dragons.

They might beat the Dragons, but that's not going to save a dire season.

Likely finish: 15th

16. Gold Coast Titans

Current position: 16th, 14 points, - 112
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 21: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 22: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 23: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 24: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 25: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)

The Titans' major advantage on the run home is that they play six of their last eight at home. Ask the NRL scheduling lords about that one.

Unfortunately, their own quality and the quality of the teams they play mean it's hard to see where they are picking up wins from.

They will no doubt give a team or two a scare, but the way it's worked out, after they play the Dragons, every team left on their schedule is a finals contender.

Likely finish: 16th

17. St George Illawarra Dragons

Current position: 17th, 10 points, - 239
Byes remaining: 0

Games remaining
Round 20: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 21: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 22: The Dolphins (home)
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)

The Dragons have been awful this season. There is no getting around that fact.

A win against the Tigers last time out showed some positive signs, but they are still going to need a lot to go right if they are going to avoid the wooden spoon.

They probably have two or three winnable games on the way home, but beating anyone other than the Titans in Round 21 looks like a bridge too far.

They will pick up the spoon for the first time in their history, and likely need at least three wins to avoid it.

Likely finish: 17th