The Cronulla Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys will put their seasons on the line in Saturday evening's elimination final, with the two clubs looking to flip recent form lines in a do-or-die clash.
Neither team will be thrilled about the way they enter the finals.
The Sharks had one oft he easier runs to the finish line this season, and eight weeks out, looked an almost certain starter for the top four, and the all-important second bite at the cherry during the knockout rounds.
Instead, they stumbled, fumbled and bumbled their way to the finish line, with Craig Fitzgibbon clearly growing in frustration week after week.
Instead of making the most of a run home where they played five straight bottom nine teams over the final five weeks of the season, the Sharks won just one from four.
Their horror run of form started with a loss to the wooden spooners at Kogarah, before they lost to the Canberra Raiders in a match that also saw Braydon Trindall injured.
They went past the Gold Coast Titans the week after without any confidence, before returning to their losing ways, falling short against the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm to finish their regular season.
The Sharks are better than they have shown in recent weeks, but they will need to step it up if they are going to go with the Cowboys, who had an enormous boost during the week at the NRL judiciary.
The Cowboys, who will have Reuben Cotter able to play after being successful on Tuesday night, have also been in average form.
If the Sharks had the easiest run to the finish line, the Cowboys were next, but squandered a chance at a home elimination final with mixed form, and will instead now make the trip to Sydney.
Conceding 50 points at home against the Canberra Raiders was probably more of an indication than anything where the Cowboys are at.
The club, who let in a record 82 points earlier this season against the Sydney Roosters, can turn it on with the best of them, but the bottom lineis that they have struggled all year for both consistency and defensive efforts.
That's maybe not a surprise, with their edges in particular letting them down, but to win in the finals, Todd Payten's side are going to need to find a lot more defensive ticker than they have shown.
What is maybe most intriguing for this elimination clash is that neither side enter the finals battle hardened, owing to their respective runs to the finish line, with the Cowboys playing only one top eight side in their last six matches - although they have managed more wins than the Sharks in the time period.
Team news
Cronulla Sharks
1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Riley Jones 4. KL Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Jesse Colquhoun 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Siosifa Talakai 15. Billy Burns 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Thomas Hazelton 19. Toby Rudolf 20. Niwhai Puru 22. Mawene Hiroti
The Sharks welcome back Braydon Trindall from a shoulder injury, although whether he makes it through 80 minutes is anyone's guess.
KL Iro, Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey, Jesse Colquhoun, Teig Wilton and Thomas Hazelton are also back from a rest.
That all sees Michael Gabrael, Riley Pollard, Braden Hamlin-Uele and Hohepa Puru drop out, while Niwhai Puru, Toby Rudolf and Billy Burns drop back to the bench.
Mawene Hiroti is also a chance of playing, but Craig Fitzgibbon may yet stick with Riley Jones in the centres.
North Queensland Cowboys
1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Braidon Burns 3. Jaxon Purdue 4. Tomas Chester 5. Zac Laybutt 6. Jake Clifford 7. Tom Dearden 8. Griffin Neame 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Soni Luke 15. John Bateman 17. Coen Hess 18. Kaiden Lahrs 19. Ethan King 21. Sam McIntyre 20. Kai O'Donnell
The Cowboys have far fewer changes.
Zac Laybutt, Griffin Neame and Jeremiah Nanai all return to the starting side, with Robert Derby out.
In a late change, Thomas Mikaele has also dropped out of the side, while Kai O'Donnell drops to the reserves, with Sam McIntyre retaining his spot on the bench.
The loss of Mikaele is a big blow to the Cowboys' engine room given his efforts this season, with the pressure kon Jason Taumalolo to lead from the front.
The history
Overall record: Played 62, Sharks 41, Cowboys 21
Last five: Sharks 3, Cowboys 2
Record in finals: Played 6, Sharks 3, Cowboys 3
Record at venue: Played 1, Sharks 1, Cowboys 0
Record at old Sydney Football Stadium: Played Sharks 2, Cowboys 1
This season's match
Round 8: Cowboys 46 defeat Sharks 34 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Keys to the game
Braydon Trindall's return and fitness
The big unknown around the Sharks form in recent weeks has been the absence of Braydon Trindall, sidelined with the shoulder injury he copped against the Raiders.
The Sharks had already turned a corner for the worst before that game, and during it, but they have been worse arguably without him.
Trindall is, almost without doubt, the most important individual player to any side in the finals series. He makes everyone around him, including the maligned Nicho Hynes, better football players.
There is no doubt about that.
His return tonight should spark something in the Sharks' attack, but he needs to get through the 80 minutes without indicent, and take the likes of Hynes and Blayke Brailey along for the ride with him.
Cowboys defensive shape
The North Queensland Cowboys have had defensive issues for much of the year - that is not going to break any news.
Of the top eight sides, they have the worst defensive record by a considerable distance, although it has to be mentioned it's not quite so bad without the 80-point outlier against the Roosters.
Still, their defensive shape has been a target for teams all year, and the return of Trindall will allow the Sharks to run rings around them unless they turn up on that side of the footy.
We know the Cowboys can score points, although that is inconsistent too - their defence needs to be counted on.
The likes of Jeremiah Nanai and Heilum Luki need to hold the line rather than rush, and their shape outside in the centres and wings also needs marked improvement.
Scott Drinkwater's impact
Scott Drinkwater is one of the most dangerous attacking players in the competition.
While there are games he looks barely a first-grader, particularly on the defensive end of the park, when he gets it right, he is more or less unstoppable.
He has been at the top of the NRL for try involvements in each of the last five years, and it's not a secret why the St George Illawarra Dragons have shelled out top dollar for him.
While Tom Dearden is the orchestrator of this attack, his role isn't nearly what it is without Drinkwater chipping in from the back.
The Sharks defence is vulnerable, and he needs to be the key man.
Sharks back five metre-eating
The Sharks, if they are going to win, need to have the Cowboys dangerous attack on the back foot for as much of the game as possible.
Part of that is down to the forward battle through the middle third, but equally, the Sharks back five need to dominate the metre game.
They have done for much of the year, and certainly, the ball running of Ronaldo Mulitalo and KL Iro in particular hands Cronulla a way forward more often than it doesn't.
Their run of form through the middle of the year was a complete team effort, but as the Panthers have done countless times over the years, they built it with the back five.
It's exactly what the Sharks must do tonight.
Prediction
When the two teams met in the regular season, there were a staggering 80 points scored.
Given the respective form lines and attacking flow of the two sides coming in to this game, it's exceptionally difficult to see a similar result being put up.
That said, the Cowboys can turn it on. The Sharks defence is far better than anything they have come up against in recent weeks though, so we will take Cronulla to sneak over the line, but realistically, it's working out who is going to lose to either the Roosters or Panthers next weekend.
Sharks by 8.
Key game information: Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys, NRL elimination final
Kick-off: Saturday, September 12, 7:50pm (AEST)
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Channel Nine and Fox League
Online: Live, 9Now and Kayo Sports
Betting: Sharks $1.42, Cowboys $2.87
Referee: Grant Atkins
