Every year we fall into the same trap when a team starts slowly, loses a few games, suffers some injuries or has a rough month.
Suddenly the conversation becomes whether their premiership hopes are over.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to sensible discussion about premiership contenders is the way we react to every result as if it completely changes the future.
One week a team is finished. The next week they're a premiership threat.
The Dragons beat Cronulla and suddenly there were headlines suggesting they could be a finals force in 2027. Last year Parramatta won a handful of late-season games with little pressure on them and as a result many were predicting a rapid return to the top eight this season.
The reality is that rugby league seasons aren't decided by a single result, a fortnight of form or even a difficult month. The best teams are judged over 27 rounds and, more importantly, by what happens in September.
Our media and fan discussions tend to swing between extremes. Every win becomes evidence of a breakthrough. Every loss becomes proof of a decline. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle.
Penrith have lost four of the last seven. The question though is whether they can get their best players healthy, fresh and available when the finals begin. History suggests that will matter far more than what happened in a handful of games during the middle of the season.
The real question is: who will be healthiest and freshest when September arrives?
History shows that premierships are rarely won by the best team on paper. They're won by the best team available. And that's definitely the challenge facing Penrith after they started the year on absolute fire.
I have had concerns about them much of the year, because they were going almost too well. Some media commentators even suggested other clubs should look at 2027 and write off 2026 because the Panthers were way ahead.
Going brilliantly is great, but the team that does is also putting pressure on itself to maintain all sorts of standards, and players can't help but hear the talk that reinforces how good they are going.
But if there is any other group of people and coach more qualified to get all this right at the moment, then they haven't been unearthed yet.
Because the Penrith Panthers are the masters.
Winning one premiership is difficult.
Winning four on the bounce is extraordinary.
So was the fact that they were bookended by a runners-up spot at the start of the run and a Preliminary final loss at the end of last season.
Staying mentally and physically at the top of the mountain for six or seven straight seasons is almost impossible, but Penrith are still there.
Every pre-season starts in November, trials in February and the NRL in starts in March. Every contender is expected to perform until October. That's eight months of training, travel, recovery, media commitments, representative football and the weekly pressure of being hunted by every opponent.
The Panthers have been carrying that burden longer than anyone.
For years they've played extra finals games and grand finals. They've supplied plenty of Origin players and had players selected for international football. Their stars have barely had an off-season.
Eventually that load catches up with every club.
When people discuss premiership contenders, they tend to focus on blue-chip players, attacking prowess, defensive steel, tactics and draw difficulty.
Yet every coach in the NRL knows the biggest predictor of finals success is often availability.
The clubs still standing in late September are usually the clubs with their best players on the field.
Look across the competition right now and injuries are shaping the premiership race as much as tactics are. Penrith, the Roosters, Sharks and Warriors have all had periods where key personnel have been unavailable, forcing coaches to shuffle line-ups and alter combinations.
Recent casualty ward reports show every major contender managing important injuries heading into the run home.
The challenge isn't avoiding injuries completely, it is ensuring they don't arrive at the crucial time.
A side can survive losing stars in May, but losing them in September is another story entirely.
Recent NRL history suggests that the best teams don't need to dominate every week of the regular season, and instead they need to peak at the right time. Brisbane Broncos last season were the absolute epitome of that.
Penrith themselves have shown their ability to manage this numerous times, even last year when they were bottom of the ladder in earlier months.
Their recent seasons have featured injury disruptions, periods of inconsistency and questions about whether the dynasty was finally ending. Yet when the finals arrived, they found another gear.
The Panthers know exactly what September football looks like.
The issue isn't whether they can play at that level, it's whether enough of their key players will be healthy enough to reach it.
The Roosters provide an interesting comparison.
They've looked like genuine premiership contenders for the second half of this season, but they have built up a reputation of starting each season somewhat underwhelmingly and they too have dealt with injury concerns around key players and combinations.
There were early and mid-season discussions suggesting their coach was under pressure such was their indifferent form.
Yet if both the Roosters and Panthers reach September with close to full-strength squads, experience suggests neither club will fear anyone.
But if one side enters the finals carrying four or five major injuries while another arrives fresh and settled, the equation changes dramatically.
That's why coaches spend so much time talking about squad depth as it helps you survive long enough for your stars to return.
While much of the attention has focused on Penrith and the Roosters, Cronulla continue to build a compelling case.
The Sharks have spent much of the year sitting among the competition's elite and have produced numbers that suggest they're genuine title contenders.
But of course, they lost to St George Illawarra last week, and that was enough for some to put the red pen through them. But not this writer.
Then there's the Warriors. They may be the absolute definition of the team nobody wants to play in Auckland during finals time.
They've surged through the competition at the start, built confidence and shown they can match it with the heavyweight teams. Yet their form spluttered before their big win over the Panthers on Friday; a performance that only strengthened the belief that they're capable of making a deep finals run.
If the Warriors can keep their key men on the field over the next month, they become every bit as dangerous as the more established contenders.
So which team is timing it best?
The Panthers who started like a house on fire or the Warriors who weren't far behind them for the first half of the year?
Or is it the Sharks or Roosters who have looked like a Premiership force in recent weeks after questions earlier in the year?
We will all enjoy watching it all unfold I am sure.
