The Queensland Maroons will finally be able to welcome Kalyn Ponga back into their side for the dead rubber that will be State of Origin Game 3.
After missing the entire series (and a large chunk of the struggling Knights' season) through injury, the fullback's return will give the Maroons a much-needed boost.
A boost of speed, agility and creativity, all of which has been lacking during the first two games as the Blues piled on the pain. Despite the games being played in Townsville and Brisbane, the Maroons find themselves down a combined 76 points to six.
The statistics are somewhat damning for the Maroons, particularly in the backline. They have struggled enormously, and that comes down to talent, as well as natural ability.
While the Blues have three of the world’s best fullbacks playing for them, to go with the winger with the most metres and one of the leading try-scorers, Queensland have had Valentine Holmes and Xavier Coates, two of the NRL’s highest error-makers, Kurt Capewell playing out of position and other players who have simply proven they aren’t up to Origin level.
Ponga at the back should provide them with something they haven’t had, while the addition of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow in the centres will also add to the speed, a disadvantage compared to the Blues line which they are desperately trying to close.
Tabuai-Fidow is one of the fastest players in the competition, while Ponga has proven to be one of the most elusive.
Thus far, Queensland have been completely outmatched when it comes to run metres from the respective back fives. Game 1 saw Queensland’s one through five run just 467 metres, while Game 2 saw a minor improvement at 590. New South Wales, on the other hand, cracked the 900 mark from those five players in each game, aided by a mountain of line breaks, tackle busts and offloads.
Average set distance determines momentum of the contest, and there is no doubt the visitors have had all of it so far this series. It has been one-way traffic at the best of times for the Maroons, and while their forwards were improved, yet still not better than their opponents in Game 2, they found it impossible to properly get into the contest thanks to the input of the Blues back five.
Ponga won’t be able to fix all the glaring problems, but his statistics speak for themselves.
Fullback
Tries
Try Assists
Tackle Breaks
The Newcastle fullback’s injuries have undoubtedly impacted his club team, who are now in an enormous battle to make the top eight.
But the impact of Ponga was only too noticeable as he returned and completed an Origin audition in a 36-0 rout of the Cowboys last time out. The Knights’ attack has been bordering on woeful all season, and yet Ponga seemed to improve everyone around him, as well as playing excellently himself.
Fullback
Tries
Try Assists
Tackle Breaks
That all being said, Ponga’s 162 metres per game, combined with six tries, six try assists, five line breaks and an awesome 31 tackle busts in six games is enough to strike fear into the heart’s of any Blues’ fan.
He is of course, matched up against a defensive line who have let in one try in 160 minutes, and against one of, if not the best fullback in the world in James Tedesco. And that’s not to say Queensland have thrown nothing at the Blues, but Ponga’s influence will certainly make a difference, as will that of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow.
There are a lot of ifs, and the halves combination of the Blues being completely swapped due to injuries for Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai could also worsen the overall positive impact of the New South Wales kicking game.
But there is a lot that’ll need to go right for Queensland. A lot more than just the return of Kalyn Ponga.
In short, Ponga can improve Queensland. Of that, there is no doubt. He is one of the best fullbacks in the competition, probably behind two blokes who will line up on the other side of the park on Wednesday in Tedesco and Trbojevic.
But can he fix Queensland to the point they escape the broom?
Probably not. New South Wales are still the favourites, and with very, very good reason.
