The major betting agencies have just released their odds for the 2015 Premiership, Top Eight and Wooden Spoon markets, and in terms of the wooden spoon, I think they have it spot on.
I fully expect the ‘race’ for the Wooden Spoon to be a race in three in 2015, headlined by the Dragons, Titans and Raiders. Although it must be said that I predicted the Raiders to win the 2014 spoon and for the Sharks to finish eighth, so my form is not great.
Unfortunately for Raiders fans, despite boasting a war chest of money to splash on potential big name recruits, the club was unable to secure that marquee signing.
Don’t get me wrong, they signed some quality players but the players they did sign do not compare favourably with the players who turned the club down.
As for the Titans, who have seen far more talent leave the club than sign on, they are probably the biggest ‘threat’ to the Raiders.
It has been widely reported that the Dragons were suffering from salary cap pressures and needed to balance their back-line heavy squad. They have lost their best player, however I believe they might just have the star power remaining to avoid the dreaded spoon.
Below, we will take a look at the three sides the betting agencies, and I, believe are the clubs in for a rough 2015. This is not meant to be a shot at any club, but the simple fact is, one club has to finish last.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Notable Outs: Brett Morris, Gerard Beale, Jack Bird
Notable Ins: George Rose, Eto Nabuli, Dane Neilson
Stars: Josh Dugan, Benji Marshall, Trent Merrin, Jason Nightingale
Summary
Even the rusted on, lifelong fans of the Red V are struggling to see losing their best player, and brightest young talent and signing fringe reserve graders as a positive, but the Dragons really had little choice.
Brett Morris, as good as he is, and in my view he is still the elite winger in Rugby League, was taking up a large percentage of the cap in a star studded back line. The Dragons needed to reinvest his wage on big name forwards to put some size and aggression into their pack.
The club is currently linked to Russell Packer and Sam Kasiano, although Packer is no certainty to be cleared to play in 2015, and Kasiano has denied the link.
As was commented on a previous piece I wrote, if George Rose is your biggest name recruit, then you haven’t had a brilliant time of it. That’s not a shot at Rose, who like most people, I am a big fan of, but his 2014 was not all that kind to the popular big man.
The Saints need their superstar halves Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop to fire, big time. Josh Dugan and Jason Nightingale are genuine superstars and should see plenty of ball out wide.
Verdict
Fans of the red V will feel much better should they be able to pry Kasiano away from the Dogs. He and Rose will form a physically big starting forward line, if not one that plays big minutes. I believe the Dragons have too many starts to be involved in a scrap for the spoon. I don’t see them making the eight, but they won’t finish last.
Gold Coast Titans
Notable Outs: Luke Bailey, Ashley Harrison, Albert Kelly
Notable Ins: Josh Hoffman, David Hala
Star Players: Greg Bird, Nate Myles, Aiden Sezer, Josh Hoffman
Summary
After producing an incredible start to the season, the Titans petered out and were nothing other than an afterthought in the top eight race. A full review was conducted, foundation coach John Cartwright was tapped on the shoulder, and former rep forwards Luke Bailey and Ashley Harrison retired.
Kevin Gordon, Josh Hoffman and Aiden Seizer should form a lethal combination if, as expected, Gordon moves to fullback full time and Hoffman plays in the halves. The Titans have a star studded forward pack with Nate Myles, Greg Bird and Dave Taylor forming a formidable back row to say the least.
Ryan James, Luke Douglas and Matt White are no slouches either. The backline should score plenty of points with the aforementioned spine combining with the likes of William Zillman, Kalifa Faifai Loa, Anthony Don and Brad Tighe. Daniel Mortimer will likely move to hooker fulltime to accommodate Hoffman in the halves.
The Titans have plenty of talent, but they will rely on players who are better known for flash and flair rather than consistency, outside of the super consistent Bird and Myles of course.
Verdict
Josh Hoffman is a brilliant player, and should thrive on playing regular first grade football. He and Sezer are absolutely key to the Titans hopes this season. They have plenty of talent and speed out wide, and should score plenty of points. I worry about their defence, but I think they have too many points in them to avoid the spoon. Bird and Myles remain genuinely world class.
Canberra Raiders
Notable Outs: Anthony Milford, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Reece Robinson
Notable Ins: Blake Austin, Josh Hodgson, Sisa Waqa
Stars: Shaun Fensom, Jarrod Croker, Josh Papalii
Summary
The Raiders lost their biggest attacking weapon, and in my view their most important player, in Anthony Milford to the Broncos. The club fought tooth and nail to keep their superstar number one, who ultimately chose to move closer to his family.
In Blake Austin the Raiders may have snagged the under the radar signing of the season. In terms of value for money, Austin presents great potential. He will likely player in the halves with young Mitch Cornish, as it looks as though Terry Campese will not feature again for the club, and Williams will likely play from the bench.
The Raiders have brought in a few honest toilers from the ESL to compliment the likes of Papalii and Fensom in the forwards. Jack Wighton and Jarrod Croker are point machines, but unfortunately ship just as many points in defense.
Wighton’s potential fulltime move to fullback will provide some exciting moments, although Raiders fans will get butterflys each time the ball is in the air. I’m a huge fan of Wighton.
Sisa Waqa and Edrick Lee should have plenty of points in them also, but like Croker, they’re not renowned for their defence.
Verdict
Scoring points will not be a problem in 2015 for the Green Machine, however I just see them conceding far too many points to avoid the spoon. They’re only an injury to Austin or Fensom away from being heavily exposed. Paul Vaughan is one of the most exciting young forwards in the game and should see plenty of minutes this season. Unfortunately for Raiders fans, this may be one of few highlights.
I’d love to get your opinion of who you think will win the wooden spoon in 2015? Have the Sharks done enough to ensure they avoid a repeat? Will the Hayne-less Eels slip back into unfortunately familiar territory? Will there be a fall from grace from one of the more fancied sides? Take the debate up with @suthodan on Twitter!
