The Canberra Raiders were never supposed to be premiership contenders in 2025.
An inexperienced spine, contract concerns around Jamal Fogarty, selection questions, and a forward pack potentially lacking a little bit of punch with some unproven quantities.
Ricky Stuart has his work cut out for him.
Then the NRL draw came out, and the Raiders were going to have to travel here, there and everywhere during the first half of the season.
Starting in Las Vegas, the Raiders have played just five games in Canberra across the first 12 rounds, with trips to Sydney, Townsville, Darwin, the Gold Coast, Brisbane and Auckland on Sunday afternoon.
It's a travel schedule as punishing as it gets, and a fixture list which has pitted them against most of the competition's top sides.
They have beaten the Warriors twice, the Broncos, the Sharks, and the Storm as part of that run, while they had the Bulldogs on the rack in one of their rare home games and pushed the Cowboys hard in Townsville, which is always a difficult road trip no matter what form Todd Payten's side happen to be in.
All told, the Raiders have come out of their overly tricky start to the season with nine wins and three losses to sit second place on the table.
The more impressive part of that is that they are yet to have a bye.
All the travel, all the tough games, and they sit second without any assistance from the free two points. The only other teams yet to have a bye are the Cronulla Sharks (fifth place, seven wins and five losses) and the Dolphins (five wins and seven losses).
Both the Sharks and Dolphins have the bye next weekend, while the Raiders have to wait another fortnight, with games against the Sydney Roosters and South Sydney Rabbitohs on the menu - one away and one at home - before they finally get to kick their feet up and have a few days away from rugby league.
If you look just two spots down the table from Canberra, you'll see the Melbourne Storm. They sit fourth, but have had two byes.
Typically, the mark to make finals is 12 wins. The Raiders have 9 from 12, and can actively start to turn their attention towards cracking the top four and earning a valuable double chance come September - a September they should arrive at rested given they have three byes in the final three months of the season.
That's just one part of the reason it's time to start taking the Raiders seriously.
Those byes, given their start, are timed ideally. Round 15 prior to Origin 2, Round 19 after Origin 3 and Round 24, leaving a three-week run to the end of the season.
No one wants the bye in the last round if you're going on to play finals, but the Raiders have landed in an ideal spot with their last bye.
Those free six points will keep them up the pointy end of the table, and if it is that they only need another three wins to make the finals, then they should do that quite easily.
Canberra's run home is the stuff dreams are made of.
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While they travel to Sydney this weekend to clash with the Roosters, and then have back-to-back trips to play the Wests Tigers and Newcastle Knights following their first bye, they are not asked to leave the Nation's capital at all in July.
Round 18 is against the Dragons, Round 19 a bye, Round 20 against the Eels and Round 21 the Knights. They travel on August 2 in Round 22 to play the Dragons, then return home to play the Sea Eagles before having another bye.
Two of their final three are away from home, but the run through the dead of winter should work perfectly into Canberra's hands.
It won't be breaking any news to tell you that it gets cold in Canberra in July.
Only one of those games is a night time game, but regardless, it's still a tough place to go and play. None of the Eels, Knights or Dragons are setting the world on fire either.
That is after their away games against the Tigers and Knights following the first bye.
The run to the end of the season features plenty of winnable games as well, with Manly and the Tigers at home, and the Panthers and Dolphins away.
There is a very real world where the Raiders win another eight or more games this season, even if they do struggle over the next fortnight leading into their first bye.
That would hand them 17 wins, and more than enough to slot into the top four.
Of course, it's not just the draw that should have Raiders fans confident.
This is a team who have handled everything a challenging first 12 weeks has thrown at them beautifully.
They wouldn't be in a position to be favoured for a top-four berth without the form they have shown.
Jamal Fogarty has quickly become one of the game's most important players, Ethan Sanders has been fantastic at five-eighth, Kaeo Weekes continues to improve, and all that behind a forward pack who have dominated.
Matty Nicholson has been a revelation, Morgan Smithies picked up where he left off last year, and don't discount the form of Corey Horsburgh after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
Even in the outside backs, off-season recruit Savelio Tamale has been phenomenal, and Xavier Savage continues to improve, while Sebastian Kris and Matt Timoko should get a lot more credit than they do for the work they do in the three-quarter line.
At the helm of it all is Ricky Stuart.
Yes, he will still have questions to answer over the second half of the year, but even the most optimstic of Raiders' fans couldn't have dreamt up this start given the challenges they have had to overcome.
Anything less than a top-four berth from here would be an abject failure.
That is how well the Raiders have gone.
The ball is in the court of the green machine over the second half of the campaign, and September is calling.
