The 2025 State of Origin series is right around the corner.
We're just a matter of weeks until Billy Slater and Laurie Daley name their squads for the series opener.
There's long been discussions about Origin selections based around picking form players against players who have done it at that level prior.
Today we look at the Queenslanders and those incumbents from Game Three last year, who I believe are under big pressure from players in far better form.
For the record, I expect Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Tom Gilbert to return from injury. They're obvious changes and won't be discussed below.
With that said, below are the Queensland incumbents from Game 3 last year who have a struggle to keep their spot this season:
Billy Slater made a few selection errors last year. None bigger than overlooking powerhouse forward David Fifita for ... reasons!?
We never really heard what the deal was other than throw away lines offered up re his fitness and pre-season. All garbage.
David Fifita, if fit, must be picked for the Maroons. He is a weapon like few others and immediately improves the QLD pack two fold.
With the greatest of respects to Kurt Capewell, he is not David Ffita. No one is.
Capewell is playing pretty well for the Warriors but Fifita was recently arguably best on ground in a game the Titans lost by 22 points.
I would be absolutely shocked if Fifita were to be overlooked again.
Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Dearden vs Cameron Munster and Jamal Fogarty
The incumbent QLD halves are in serious trouble. I'd hazard a guess to say that one will miss selection for the series opener.
Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Dearden wore Maroon in last year's decider. That couldn't get the job done.
Meanwhile Cameron Munster is back to full fitness and is tearing teams to shreds.
Jamal Fogarty is probably the form, game managing halfback of the competition. His kicking game is almost flawless and he's been brilliant for the high flying Raiders.
Munster will return in the six, you'd have to imagine. This leaves DCE vs. Dearden in the likely battle but I believe the form option right now if Fogarty.
One for Billy Slater to mull over and the exact point of this discussion. Do you go with the tried and tested or the form option?
Felise Kaufusi vs Corey Horsburgh
Dolphins and Maroons veteran Felise Kaufusi has been amazing for both club and state for many years.
That said, it's going to be very difficult to ignore the form of "Big Red" Corey Horsburgh, who has started the season ... on fire!
Kaufusi stepped in as a middle forward in last year's series, to mixed success, but he surely knows his spot is under serious consideration.
Kaufusi played 16 minutes in last year's Game Three. He has 17 Origin games to his name. Two telling numbers and worth discussion.
Slater will be very tempted to unleash the red hot Canberra middle. That said, he can be wound up in Origin.
Kaufusi, a firebrand himself, isn't immune but he has far more experience.
Selwyn Cobbo has hardly been terrible in 2025. Xavier Coates though is blowing away the competition an scoring highlight reel tries for fun.
Both are monsters out wide. Both are making plenty of metres, both are good in the air. Cobbo has a big power edge while Coates is one of the fastest players in the competition.
Cobbo is the incumbent and was a match-winner in QLD's only win in last years series.
Coates has played Origin, well, but has to earn the jersey. His performances probably dictate he should.
I think if you pick Cameron Munster in the halves, and I believe Slater will, then you add Coates due to the club connection. Seems like a close call, it could come down to something trivial.
Full disclosure, but I have left Jeremiah Nanai out of my Origin 1 predicted 17 which will be published on site in the coming days.
He was playing QLD Cup just a few weeks ago. Yes, he has returned and played well, but his performances haven't been in the ball park of Dragons counterpart Jaydn Su'A.
Su'A has busted his side of the field open with regularity and has played a huge part in the Dragons early season success.
It wouldn't shock me if Kaufusi, who is hugely versatile and experienced, jags a spot, but if he does at the expense of Su'A, Slater will be straight up ignoring form.
I'm not saying you should always go the form player. If that were a blanket statement, Will Kennedy would be playing for NSW.
That said, Su'A is playing at a level which should be impossible to ignore.
Let us know in the comments which players you believe will make way for their in form counterparts.
