A week that has gone to script means chances for teams at the bottom of the ladder to make the finals are closing, as the likely top eight takes shape.
In this week's edition of the run home, Zero Tackle takes you through every game remaining, what each team needs to go right for their best-case scenarios, and where you can expect your side to be finished.
There has been just one change on the final predicted ladder, but the number of teams requiring miracles to play finals footy is growing.
Here is the run home for every team.
Note: In the best and worst case scenarios, we are assuming a maximum for and against turnaround of 40 points per game remaining.
Round 23 tips
Gold Coast Titans lose to North Queensland Cowboys
New Zealand Warriors defeat Penrith Panthers
Sydney Roosters defeat Manly Sea Eagles
The Dolphins defeat Brisbane Broncos
South Sydney Rabbitohs defeat Parramatta Eels
Canberra Raiders defeat Newcastle Knights
St George Illawarra Dragons lose to Cronulla Sharks
1. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 1st, 36 points, + 308
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 24: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 25: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers took care of business against the Raiders over the weekend, and took a major step towards the minor premiership in doing so.
Regardless of this weekend's result against the Warriors, they'd still be a little bit off locking it up properly, but they could land a major knockout blow across the Tasman in the race for top spot at the end of the regular season.
As it stands, the Panthers are now the only team mathematically locked into the finals, although by the end of the coming week they may not be alone.
The Panthers missing the top four would also now require a lot to go wrong - likely at least four losses from their final five.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 6th
2. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 2nd, 34 points, + 155
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 24: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 25: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters set an NRL-era record over the weekend, putting 82 points on the North Queensland Cowboys. It was the first time in 90 years that the clock has been beaten at the top level of Australian rugby league.
The tri-colours will face far stiffer tests over the comingh weeks than the one the pathetic Cowboys defence served up in Townsville though.
They start their final five weeks against the Bulldogs this week, looking for a slip up from the Panthers ahead of them to claim the minor premiership.
They can still technically miss the finals, but would just about need to lose all five of their remaining games.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 9th
3. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 3rd, 32 points, + 226
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 24: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 25: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors got back to winning ways with a thumping of the Titans on Saturday afternoon, and now get ready for a far tougher run in.
They certainly aren't in must-win territory, but their top four spot could be under pressure without some wins against top sides on the way in.
That starts at home against the Panthers this weekend - it's a place they must lock up if they want to have a home qualifying final.
We have them needing at least two, but probably three wins from their last five to lock up a top four spot, while if they want to play from the top two, they may well need to win all five.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 10th
4. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 4th, 32 points, + 177
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 24: Canberra Raiders (home)
Round 25: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Sharks had yet another win this weekend over the Rabbitohs, extending their long run of form as they push towards September.
Cronulla, as flagged in previous weeks, have a tremndously straightforward run in, and are one of only two teams we have not dropping a game to the end of the season.
It might be on for and against with the Roosters - a margin that has shut significantly after their win over the Cowboys - but they are still nicely on track for a home qualifying final.
They still can miss the top eight, but are only a win or two away from locking it in, while the top four is far less certain with the Dolphins just two points behind them.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 10th
5. The Dolphins
Current position: 5th, 30 points, + 90
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 25: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Dolphins picked up a win they should have on Friday night against the lowly Dragons, but maybe not as comfortably as they would have liked.
The Redcliffe-based outfit have one of the easiest runs to the finish line though, and while there are some tricky matches ahead, we have them winning another three to finish the year just two points outside the top four.
It's certainly not out of the question that they earn themselves a double chance, with gamest the Sea Eagles and Roosters on the road likely to be the determining factors.
We suspect one more win will be enough to make the top eight, while the maths says if everything goes against them they can still drop down to 12th on the table.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 12th
6. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 6th, 28 points, + 60
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 23: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 24: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 25: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
The Knights are the last of the teams still in mathematical contention for the minor premiership, although they'd need to win all five games and hope not just the Panthers, but a number of other teams in front of them have fairly major form tail offs.
The far more likely battle for the injury-ravaged Knights is going to be to make the finals.
Their win over the Broncos on Saturday was much needed, as will their Round 27 bye. In between now and then they have at least three winnable games, and it's those, two of which are at home, which could be enough for Justin Holbrook to make the finals in his first year at the Knights.
It's about this point on the ladder where things get tense though, although a win as well as their bye to come should be enough to play finals footy.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 1st
Worst finishing spot: 12th
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 7th, 26 points, + 62
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 25: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs desperately needed to turn the script on Sunday afternoon, having lost two likely competition points against the Storm the week before.
Instead, they came up short against the Sharks and, despite sitting in seventh, have left themselves a little bit of a mountain to climb.
They absolutely need to pick up wins in their next two games or they could very well miss out on the finals.
In fact, their Round 24 game against the Bulldogs is starting to look like an eighth-place decider.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 14th
8. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 8th, 26 points, - 44
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 24: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 25: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs sneak their way into the top eight after getting the better of the the Melbourne Storm in Melbourne on Friday evening.
It was a result that came against an understrength side, but the Bulldogs have slowly built a bit of form and are now well in with a shot at playing in the finals.
They do have a tricky run home though and need to find a way to keep the momentum rolling. Byes for the Cowboys, Raiders and Knights in the race for the top eight hurt them too.
We have them winning three of their last five, but it could well be for and against that prevents a finals qualification, because at this stage, we also have the Rabbitohs finishing on 32 points.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week:Nil
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 14th
9. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 9th, 26 points, - 98
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 23: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 24: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 25: Bye
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys are now one of the trickiest teams to work out, because they were utterly destroyed by the Roosters at home over the weekend.
It leaves them outside the top eight, and yet, with their run home, it's tough to see where they drop another game.
In short, nothing has changed for the Cowboys, and maybe it even locks their win against the Titans this coming weekend into the certainty basket given you'd expect a major bounce.
At this stage, another eight competition points gets them a home elimination final, and that is exactly the expectation.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 2nd
Worst finishing spot: 14th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 24 points, + 90
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Melbourne Storm (away - Perth)
Round 24: The Dolphins (home)
Round 25: Newcastle Knights (away)
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Manly have wrapped up their byes for the season with frankly one that couldn't have come at a more needed or better time.
Their losses leading into that bye, and indeed other results over the weekend, have made their pursuit for a finals spot bordering on an impossibility.
They can certainly still get there, but with a tricky run in, would likely need to win at least four of their final five.
Ultimately, that will be a bridge too far. We have them winning just two of those matches.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 3rd
Worst finishing spot: 16th
11. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 11th, 22 points, - 59
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 23: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 24: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 25: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders came up very short against the Panthers on the weekend, although that was to be expected leading into the game.
The Raiders do have a mixed run home and have shown enough form before the Penrith loss to suggest they may be a chance of a miracle.
They also have a bye to help their cause, but even then, likely need to win all four games and have things go their way given a low for and against.
Amazingly, in the absolute best case, they could still host an elimination final, but that is purely a maths based fact.
We have them winning another two to close a miserable season with green shoots appearing at the end.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up 1
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
12. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 12th, 20 points, - 26
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 23: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 24: Bye
Round 25: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Craig Bellamy's side all but had their finals hopes extinguished on the weekend with a loss to the Canterbury Bulldogs.
As it stands, they sit on 20 points with a bye and four games to go. To make the finals, they'll need the current projected 32-point market to be lower.
Winning all five will be a start, but they'll also need at least four of the five teams ahead of them to fall short. The Rabbitohs and Cowboys could end the Storm's chances for good over the next fortnight.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down 1
Best finishing spot: 5th
Worst finishing spot: 16th
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 20 points, - 179
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
Round 24: North Queensland Cowboys (home)
Round 25: The Dolphins (away)
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The first of the teams not yet out of wooden spoon danger, although they might as well be afer winning the worst game of the season against the Tigers on Sunday afternoon.
Parramatta sit on 20 competition points and could still make the eight with five wins from five and a similar set of circumstances to the Storm above.
To drop to the spoon, they'd need five big losses, the Dragons would need five big wins, and teams below them would also need to win at least one or two games.
In short, it's not going to happen.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 7th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
14. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 14th, 18 points, - 122
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
The Titans have a strong enough for and against that under the 40 points per game turnaround logic, they could still get to seventh spot on the table.
For that to happen, they'd need five big wins, and to have the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs fail to score any points outside of their game against each other, while the Cowboys also couldn't win with their two points coming from a bye.
The Sea Eagles, Raiders and Storm would also need to continue dropping their bundle on the run to the finish line.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 7th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
15. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 15th, 18 points, - 156
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: The Dolphins (away)
Round 24: New Zealand Warriors (home)
Round 25: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos have been officially written off by the majority, and with good reason.
Maths says they can still make the finals, but they'd need five wins and the same circumstances as described above regarding the Titans.
Under the for and against logic, they also can't catch the Rabbitohs, so would only be looking at eighth spot if they went on the most miraculous of runs.
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 8th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
16. Wests Tigers
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 211
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 23: Bye
Round 24: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 25: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
For now, the Tigers just slot into the top eight race on maths, and only because the Cowboys' for and against took a beating over the weekend.
Otherwise, the Tigers would be gone.
Realistically, they are. Even four wins is tough to see them getting there.
Of course, four wins will be a tough enough task given how they played against Parramatta.
They could be officially out of contention by the time they get back on the field from the bye.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 8th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 10 points, - 273
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 23: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 24: Wests Tigers (away)
Round 25: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons have been out of finals contention for weeks, and after falling short against the Dolphins on Friday, are now just one loss away from locking the wooden spoon in.
They haven't looked the worst NRL team in recent weeks, but their awful start to the year was too much to overcome.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best finishing spot: 13th
Worst finishing spot: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Penrith Panthers
2. Cronulla Sharks
3. Sydney Roosters
4. New Zealand Warriors
5. The Dolphins
6. North Queensland Cowboys
7. Newcastle Knights
8. South Sydney Rabbitohs
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
10. Manly Sea Eagles
11. Canberra Raiders
12. Melbourne Storm
13. Brisbane Broncos
14. Parramatta Eels
15. Wests Tigers
16. Gold Coast Titans
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors
Qualifying final 2: Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters
Elimination final 1: The Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Elimination final 2: North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights
