Why Mitch Moses should not be picked for State of Origin

There's a certain kind of loyalty in rugby league that borders on delusion.

It's the loyalty that keeps selectors reaching for the familiar name, the safe pick, the player who did well two years ago and might do it again if the stars align.

That loyalty, if unchecked, could see Mitchell Moses pull on the NSW Blues jersey for Game 1 of the 2026 State of Origin series, and it would be a mistake.

Let's be honest about Moses and the Eels at the moment.

The Parramatta Eels have slumped to 14th place on the ladder through seven rounds. 

Their defensive record is one of the worst in the NRL, and they have conceded 50 points twice this season.

On the latest episode of The Loose Carry Podcast, rugby league coach Lee Addison broke down the Eels defensive schemes and how teams have been preparing their attacking sequences to target Moses lapses on the right edge.

While his abilty in attack is elite in the game, the current trends of the NRL on-field product suggest that Moses' short-side style wouldn't suit the Origin product.

Under the previous rules, Moses would be a easy pick despite form on the individual and club level, and it proved well in the 2024 series, but under the current coach of the latest NRL premiers, Michael Maguire.

Laurie Daley's second stint as the Blues coach has struggled with getting his spine in their spots where they shine best and has relied on Brad Fittler's copy and paste Penrith's system into Origin tactic, which didn't age well.

The NRL shines when teams break up normal set cadences. Wests Tigers star Jarome Luai has this skill in his game while Moses doesn't naturally execute in that position and has leaned in towards his tendencies at the Eels when they compete against the best teams in the competition with high percentage tendencies and utilise game managing attributes.

Nathan Cleary is the best game-managing halfback in the NRL, and Moses needs the ball in his hands and calling the shots in the same spots Cleary does. 

Their roles are almost identical and even with Moses on the left side, the Blues struggled balancing between Cleary second receiver plays to get the ball to Moses and getting the ball in their best players hands, especially when their fullback is limited on the attacking side of the ball besides getting carries and runs to hopefully be out of their own end for Cleary and Moses to kick at the end of the set.

Moses could be a catch and drive in an attacking downhill style that Queensland won the series with in 2023 when they built shape to move out the back with Reece Walsh being the centre piece, and target Queensland's corner in a set sequence to lure defenders in and make a play for the left edge centre and winger, whoever that may be come May 27.

A spine of let's say James Tedesco, Jarome Luai, Nathan Cleary and a rotation between Apisai Koroisau and Blayke Brailey in the dummy halves at their peak in Origin would have the dummy-halves clearing the ruck and taking advantage of quick play-the-balls while getting the ball into the halves or find a lurking Tedesco at fullback, and that's assuming the game breaks open in a similar fashion to club level.

In a set sequence, Moses struggles to play with less time and space. We saw Cleary be a victim of this in multiple Origin losses and as recently as the Panthers loss to the Bulldogs, where the line speed defensively cut off passing lanes and windows that are normally open or would be open normally when the Blues are rolling in Origin.

Having two halves struggle in the same areas would be troubling for the Blues, giving them less options in their attack, even with the talent they could have assuming they just go with overall talent and nothing on form.

It's not Moses as a player that shouldn't be entirely picked because of form, which that is part of this argument, but also how he is used and the players around him.

The Eels have for many years failed in many games, where sequences failed to give Moses the ball even when he wants to attack the line and sees patterns and defensive sequences he can attack.

A call from Moses mid set for the ball is so sproadic and unpredictable, it can be difficult to play off the back of that for his backline and second-rower.

Uniquely, thats where the footy IQ delivers and Origin isn't played like anymore, or at least doesn't look like that currently.

In Origin, Moses would have to catch and sneak a grubber kick through the line, or take over the dummy half spot for a play to have control the way that he has always played with.

Luai has translated this skill of catching the ball, creating a basketball like hesistation to the left or right and put a grubber kick in for his teammates to chase and score a try.

The idea of Cleary and Moses as the halves sounds beautiful until their games are broken down in tendencies, patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and external factors like coaches and teammates.

While Moses' form has been shot this season, and there are multiple factors that play into that besides his execution, we haven't seen a Blues side in a long time understanding the current game with a coach that understands his players in getting their best and maximising their games to translate to the Origin arena, apart from Michael Maguire.

Moses' game translates very well, fans and media were at one point just hoping for Moses to be the Blues halfback instead of Cleary last year.

Think about Moses' debut in Origin back in 2021.

Two try assists, both from kicks, in spots on the field, similiar sequences that Cleary best operates in, that almost any halfback would execute the best in; coming from the right side, kicking to the left, everyone onside and have players on the same stage to put an effort to chase.

His two try assists kept the Blues in that game despite losing the final game of the series, which they won.

He then returned in 2023, and Moses has great looks attacking the Queensland line.

They get close many times in Game 2 of the series, but unfortunately didn't capitalise their chances when the ball was in their hands when Queensland made errors.

Queensland win the 2023 series, and for good reason, tearing apart the Blues defence with ease, and the innovation of Reece Walsh's running style was too powerful that year. 

Twelve months later, the Blues have attacking sequences that spread the ball, play with a lot of space, and shift right to left for Luai to break through the line non-traditionally and eventually put Bradman Best in for a try that changed momentum completely back to NSW.

The next time the Blues get in the Maroons half, the Blues run a play that put Moses in first receiver, leveraging Liam Martin into a gap, but instead switches mid play and puts a step on the Maroons' left edge defence and quickly runs to score the game sealing try.

It's these sequences that maximises the Blues and gives them a fighting chance to change their normal ways of attacking when they have possession.

If the Blues can't build into these plays at any stage of the game or series, they will lose, making Queensland's defence spread out, hunting individual matchups, drawing in, luring in defenders, that can be the core to their attacking engine and still have room to maximise their outside backs and second-rowers, which has quickly become one of the most important positions per the rule changes and how teams are strategically attacking.

A mix of form in unique circumstances at club level, red flags about his defence and the Blues' strucutre and tactics puts Moses' selection in jeopardy, and if the squads were picked tomorrow, it would be the wrong move to pick Moses.