There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

2. Round 23: Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights

As has already been discussed, the Raiders need to take care of business at home on the run in, and this game is no different.

Canberra having a chance to make the finals is a surprise given where they were not all that long ago, but losing to the Knights could confirm Ricky Stuart's team won't be making them just 12 months after winning the minor premiership.

It's simply that big of a game.

And don't get it twisted - the Knights are putting plenty on the line here. They have an easy enough run home to qualify for the top eight despite their injuries, but they are still going to need wins somewhere and will be eyeing off this game as an opportunity.

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