There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

3. Round 23: Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are going to be up against it given their for and against as they try to qualify for the finals against teams around them with either byes, easier runs, or both, in the case of the Cowboys.

That ultimately means they may need to pick up a win you don't expect from somewhere, and this clash with the Roosters could be the opportunity.

The Roosters are coming off a 70-point win over the Cowboys granted, but now entrenched in the top four, there is a chance they turn up and let their guard down this weekend.

If the Bulldogs do manage a Round 23 win, you could start looking on their finals chances as very favourable.

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