There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

4. Round 26: New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

The Warriors have had a strong record at home this year, but the Knights may need to challenge that if they are going to make the finals.

Justin Holbrook's side will need to win somewhere without their key names if they are going to qualify, and there would be no better statement to make than a week out from the finals in Auckland.

The Warriors could well need a game like this to hang onto a top four spot, but it's clear all the attention and focus will be on the Knights during the lead-up.

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