There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.
While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.
Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.
That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.
The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.
With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.
5. Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders
Two teams in the mix for the top eight square off in the final round of the season in Townsville.
One or both might be out of contention by then pending on other results, but for now, this looks like it could be knockout footy come early for at least one of these teams.
With no ability to rest players given the potential stakes of the game - and those before it - this should see two teams who fluctuate wildly put it all on the line just a week out from the finals.
Rabbitohs v Roosters ?
If I am Trent Robinson, I’m throwing the “Book of Feuds” in the bin, and resting half my first team.
The focus should be on the finals not on some petty squabble.