There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

6. Round 23: Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles

The Storm and Sea Eagles head to Perth this weekend to put it all on the line.

The Storm, in their final mathematical throws of being a chance at the top eight, and the Sea Eagles, needing to right the ship very quickly coming out of their bye if they want to play in the finals.

Add to that the fact these sides are serious rivals, and the fact the clash is in Perth, and it could be anything.

What is for certain is that if the Storm lose, they are gone, and if Manly lose, they are going to be struggling in a big way as they limp towards the end of the year.

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