There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

7. Round 24: Manly Sea Eagles vs The Dolphins

Last time the Dolphins played the Sea Eagles, it was in Redcliffe, and Kieran Foran's first game in charge as head coach.

Manly, who had suffered three straight losses to start the season, turned around and stunned the rugby league world by blowing the doors off for the home side.

On that front, the Dolphins will be keen to get a slice of revenge when they head to Brookvale as they build in to their maiden finals series.

Manly though will be desperate. Their form has hit the skids in recent weeks, and they are maybe only one or two more disasters away from missing the finals, something that was unthinkable when Foran was getting to the end of his honeymoon period in charge.

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