There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

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1. Round 24: Canterbury Bulldogs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

This is without a doubt the biggest game on the run to the finish line.

Zero Tackle's current projection is that both of these clubs will finish on 32 points and be split by for and against at the end of the year.

That is with a Bulldogs win, still leaving them out of the top eight on for and against.

For the Bulldogs, this is must-win. For the Rabbitohs, a loss in this one makes the final games very squeaky, and essentially brings knockout footy early if results go as expected in other matches.

Two Sydney rivals putting it all on the line just a handful of weeks out from the finals. It's set to be a big one.

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