Status quo at the top, a battle for eighth and the dismal Dragons: 2023 NRL ladder prediction

Every year we see changes to the top eight, new recruits see some teams rise while retirements and injuries can cause many to plummet down the ladder, but it's incredibly rare we see the same eight play finals footy two years running.

Last season we saw Canberra, Cronulla and North Queensland return to the finals at the expense of Newcastle, the Gold Coast and Manly, an ever-turning machine churning out new star outfits while others waste away.

Who will climb the ladder? Who is going to plummet? The dark horse, the overachievers, can anyone knock Penrith off their perch at the top of the ladder?

It's time to delve into it.

1. Penrith Panthers
They may have lost two key figures in Apisai Koroisau and Viliame Kikiau, but Penrith are back-to-back Grand Finalists for a reason.

Their junior development means the club's 'next man up' mentality is as good as anyone, and still possessing names like Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, Brian To'o, Isaah Yeo and James Fisher-Harris, they will be a juggernaut again in 2023.

2. Sydney Roosters
The acquisition of Brandon Smith could be the last piece of the puzzle for the Roosters, especially now Luke Keary and Sam Walker have had an entire season to gel together.

While he had an indifferent 2022, it's easy to forget 'the Cheese' was the Dally M Hooker of the Year the season prior, and with such a strong yet mobile forward pack, Smith will capitalise big time this year as the Chooks make the big dance.

3. Cronulla Sharks
A sizzling season ended with a fizzle after Cronulla went out in straight sets to finish their 2022 season.

Once again the beneficiary of a 'soft draw', Cronulla have some assets in their side, including Dally M medallist Nicho Hynes, however their ladder position will make them seem better than they are. Expect a dominant regular season while exposing their underbelly in the finals once again.

4. Melbourne Storm
Write them off at your own peril. The club has lost a lot of experience through the Bromwich brothers, Felise Kaufusi and Brandon Smith, but look at what's still sitting at their disposal.

Provided Ryan Papenhuyzen returns to the peak of his powers, he'll join Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes in the spine, as well as players like Christian Welch, Xavier Coates, Justin Olam and Nelson Asofa-Solomona, they are a massive threat.

And did we mention the likely final season for Craig Bellamy?

5. North Queensland Cowboys
Similar to the 2019 Canberra Raiders, North Queensland enjoyed a massive season, however it's hard to see so many players backing up their form after so many enjoyed career-best seasons in 2022.

Surnames like Nanai, Cotter and Taulagi become household names, but they can continue to perform at that level? There's more travel for them than last year, they'll still be a threat, but expect a slight drop.

6. South Sydney Rabbitohs 
One of the more settled squads in the NRL right now, South Sydney hasn't signed one recruit with NRL experience ahead of this season, instead focused on promoting and developing from within.

The club has made five preliminary finals in a row and has the arsenal to make it six, but can they progress further, can they win it all? Their backs are against the wall, but a fully-fit Latrell Mitchell will be the difference.

7. Parramatta Eels
You had to expect the drop. After losing so much talent in Isaiah Papalii, Reed Mahoney, Marata Niukore and more, Parramatta's premiership window is sliding shut fast. It may have even slammed following one of the most one-sided Grand Finals in years.

There's big question marks over Josh Hodgson, their vacant back-row spot and the future of Mitchell Moses. Could the Eels be in for a tumbling few seasons? It's looking likely.

8. Brisbane Broncos
Ignore what Selwyn Cobbo said, Brisbane will be competitive under Kevin Walters in 2023.

Only missing a return to finals footy thanks to one of the great late season collapses, Brisbane NEED Adam Reynolds on the field for at least two-thirds of this upcoming season.

The addition off Reece Walsh adds flare and that backline picks itself, plus the dynamite from the likes of Patrick Carrigan, Payne Haas and Ezra Mam.

There's a big season at Red Hill brewing.

9. Manly Sea Eagles
Higher than many pundits are tipping them, Anthony Seibold will be collecting a few apologies this season as he steers Manly narrowly short of a return to finals footy.

Tom Trbojevic is expected to be fit and firing for the season opener, especially after his trip to Philadelphia, while Daly Cherry-Evans will form a new-look partnership with Josh Schuster at the scrum base. There'll be some teething problems, but they'll push for a spot in the eight til the very last round.

10. Canberra Raiders 
One of the biggest mysteries of the ladder each season, which Canberra outfit will we get in 2023?

Canberra had a monster second-half of the season to sneak into the finals, yet came tumbling out in the second week after being touched up 40-4. They've lost a stack of depth and signed just Pasami Saulo and Danny Levi. They'll have their regular attacking flair, but expect a drop this season.

11. Canterbury Bulldogs
While many have tipped the club to battle it out for a top eight spot, there's still an edge missing from Canterbury, especially after the retirement of Josh Jackson. That 'Dogs of War' attitude, push has to come to shove sooner or later.

While this year's Dally M medallist may just be wearing the No. 6, and Josh Addo-Carr is coming off a monster World Cup, but the lack some ferocity, and need a lot more from Kyle Flanagan. The club is making massive strides, but 2023 isn't the year they make the leap.

12. The Dolphins
Higher than most have them, expect 'Dad's army' to embarrass some teams in their maiden year as Wayne Bennett proves how pivotal a good head coach can be between making and breaking an NRL outfit.

Rugby league's latest 'Moneyball' story, the club has nabbed a ton of experienced players to set training standards, and show the young guns what it takes not just to win at NRL level, but perform consistently. A B- of a first season.

13. Wests Tigers
Arguably the best recruitment in the NRL for this upcoming season, unfortunately losing has been engrained into the Wests Tigers over the last decade, and that takes some time to shake out of your system.

Blessed with an unreal forward, however field position matters little if you don't know what to do with it. It all comes back to Luke Brooks. He needs to be dominant. Especially with so much uncertainty about their spine, it'll be a tough return for Tim Sheens.

14. Gold Coast Titans
The Titans should be really fearful. The NRL knows well it functions with a 16-team competition, so if the Dolphins hit the ground running on the field and off it, the Titans will be desperate to have a good season.

They have the raw talent, Beau Fermor is a shining light and Kieran Foran should bring some direction and guidance to a young spine, but it'll matter little. It's not that the Titans don't have ability, but there's 13 better NRL sides out there.

15. Newcastle Knights
If it wasn't for the signing of Jackson Hastings, then Newcastle could well be finishing the season in 17th position.

The move to put Kalyn Ponga at five-eighth is a questionable one looking at his concussion history, while the loss of Dave Klemmer can't be understated. This side will be getting chopped and changed all season and with a lot to be desired in the leadership department, they'll be rudderless at times.

16. New Zealand Warriors

Another side that has recruited well, the Warriors just leave too much to be desired in the effort department. It's like they doubt their own ability at times and throw in the towel.

There's some quality players in their side and a some with big futures, but they won't put it together. Hopefully a big off-season back in New Zealand does them wonders but it's hard to see them settling on a 17 in back-to-back weeks very often. Another season of potential wasted.

17. St George Illawarra Dragons

This club conintues to find itself in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Already it looks like Junior Amone will miss the start of the season under the no-fault stand down policy, while Cody Ramsey is likely to miss the early rounds through illness.

The issue lies in their middle - teams will be rolling through the Red V like butter at a summer BBQ, and it's hard to see Ben Hunt replicating his 2022 season, especially after being given a new contract at the club. Anthony Griffin won't survive the Origin period as fan backlash begins to mount through the years.

 

 

FULL 2023 NRL LADDER PREDICTION

1. Penrith Panthers
2. Sydney Roosters
3. Cronulla Sharks
4. Melbourne Storm
5. North Queensland Cowboys
6. South Sydney Rabbitohs 
7. Parramatta Eels
8. Brisbane Broncos
9. Manly Sea Eagles
10. Canberra Raiders
11. Canterbury Bulldogs
12. The Dolphins
13. Wests Tigers
14. Gold Coast Titans
15. Newcastle Knights
16. New Zealand Warriors
17. St George Illawarra Dragons