New South Wales' attack has gone backwards under Laurie Daley.
Michael Maguire was the State coach last season, and the team played to a clear structure. If you want to use the statistics as a guide, the Blues have scored four less points in the first two matches of this year than last, despite playing most of Game 1 2024 with twelve men.
Virtually all NSW tries in this series have come from overwhelming momentum, or as a result of attacking kicks. Occasionally, the individual duals that in many ways define Origin have seen someone in a blue shirt outsmart someone in a maroon one to score.
This year's series is coached by men who have zero significant head coaching experience outside of this arena, and it's showing. Daley already had a crack between 2013 and 2017, whereas his opposing clipboard carrier, Billy Slater, didn't even have that.
We have two very average coaches head-to-head this year. The mainstream media will not tell you any of this. The other thing they like to peddle is the line, Origin is โnot about tactics'. That is the biggest load of baloney I have ever heard. Every professional sports game worth its salt has tactics!
I saw indications of poor structure unfolding (or not, as the case may be) in the opening fixture.
It took lots of Ashley Klein penalties and six-agains at Suncorp to help Laurie's lads over the line, notably in a twelve-minute, three-try splurge towards the end of the first half and a solitary score towards the end of the second.
What is notable about tries at the back-end of each half like this, is that it is a sure-fire sign that momentum - either by virtue of excellent strategy or a referee's whistle - is starting to tire out the opposition.
In mitigation, NSW did play a very basic and attritional style for the majority of the first game. Yet it was in an approach to the โRed Zone' where some warning signs were evident.
It was easy to blame first-game-under-a-new-coach nerves, or the new halves pairing of Mitchell Moses and Nathan Cleary. Yet in Perth, Cleary was partnered by a man who he had grown up playing with, and secured four premierships on the trot, alongside.
The trip to Western Australia was meant to see a blue wave of attack put the final nail in the coffin of the Maroons' series hopes for another year. The only โwave' that came was when the rain clouds rolled in over Optus Stadium.
Surely this wet weather was an excuse for the poor attack, I hear you cry.
The last time I checked, rain doesn't stop players getting into shape, halves dictating play and forwards running on to the ball on the angle.
I would go as far to posit that, had New South Wales somehow conspired to lose this series already, and Nathan Cleary was the same age as DCE, he'd have been shown the door, too. There were so many similarities between DCE in the opener and Cleary in the second match when the key moments for them to strike came along.
When Connor Watson arrives on the field, the direction provided by the man he replaces, Reece Robson, seems to go south.
In this video I describe the Blues attack as being of โthe standard you'd expect of St Mary's or Cabramatta Under 11'sโ.
This is actually an insult to these, and similar aged teams, and I can now tell you why with some authority!
Immediately after putting the above video together, I then did another for a customer of mine who wanted me to run an assessment on his son, who is a fullback or a dummy-half, playing for an Under 11's side not too far from St Mary's and Cabramatta!
In this game, I saw these ankle-biters playing to a good, basic structure; one that provided direction in their half of the field, before giving room for the excitement machines in each team to unleash their talents on the opposition, in the other half of the field.
There was no running sideways from confused forwards or seemingly rushed plays by the halves. Maybe, like happens in junior footy in Sydney, Laurie Daley needs to put his first receiver and dummy-half in bibs in game three?
Even the under 11's knew that, when in good-ball or โRed Zone' areas, the coach would not like to see four or five hit-ups from a forward or a frustrated back, before the ball sees some air across the backline.
Maybe the coaches should mentor Daley, and teach him how to get his players to use the first two - maximum three - plays to โset-up' Queensland's defence, before throwing two or three enterprising plays at them. They haven't done that yet in this series.
In Perth, when the points were needed, they rarely left the โsafe-zone' of the middle of the field, inside each scrum-line that sits 20 metres from each touchline.
Unlike at Suncorp, however, they weren't blowing their opponents away in this area with direct, hard running. Instead, they were over-concerned with running at Harry Grant, to make him work hard in defence, before tentatively moving the ball sideways.
All this, rather than running at the worst tacklers on the field, green grass and fresh air; to get passive tackles, to get momentum, to move the ball to the grass and space on the other side of the field.
Like Munster and DCE in Game 1, Cleary, and - when he came into things - Dylan Edwards, regularly went with a short-pass to a runner chiming into the defensive line, rather than the more suitable option, to one sweeping around the back.
For the record, Jarome Luai sees which option to take far better. Despite the straitjacket of the structure, Luai still kicked and cajoled his way to several try-assists in Perth.
You see, if the Blue attack is like watching under 11's, Queensland's defence was akin to that of under 9's, playing against their older and bigger opponents at times!
One try scored in that second half in Perth saw Valentine Holmes miss a tackle that would see a nine-year-old substituted. Stephen Crichton ran straight towards him, yet still went over the try-line seemingly untouched.
In another, Latrell Mitchell and poor centre-wing communication managed to scare Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow into rushing in to make a tackle, when holding his place and marking winger, Brian To'o, would have saved the day.
That said, the Maroons' defence was far better in the second match than in the first. Not that it's saying much, as it was dreadful in Brisbane. If they can manage the same amount of improvement in game three, and the Blues don't get that attack clicking, we could be in for a shock at Accor.
If they don't, and New South Wales can get their attacking structures right, they could be on the end of the cricket score that everyone seems to think will happen again one day.
If they both improve on their weaknesses, NSW will get saved by some individual excellent attacking players, as it has so far already.
Notice I didn't mention the referee? Let's hope he is anonymous.
Lee Addison is a former club coach at the Sea Eagles and Panthers, and the founder of rugbyleaguecoach.com.au. His recently published book โRugby League Coach' is available now on Amazon and www.rugbyleaguecoach.com.au.
Excellent insight and wit, as usual, Lee.
I suspect that you could do worse for yourself than contact the current Australian Head Coach, and offer your services as a knowledgeable guy with a load of local contacts, to sort out the lack of grounds, lack of hotels, lack of any clue debacle.