The New Zealand Warriors are the new predicted minor premiers, with a pair of home games leaving their fate in their own hands after the Sydney Roosters lost over the weekend.
The Warriors, Roosters and Panthers are in a three-way race for the minor premiership a fortnight from the end of the season as the top eight takes shape.
With just 16 games remaining, the Dolphins, Sharks and Knights are now all locked in to the finals, while the Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles remain a hope of closing out the bottom two spots in the top eight.
Casting an eye further down the ladder, the Dragons have all but confirmed their first ever wooden spoon, while the Storm and Raiders who lose over the weekend both had their finals hopes extinguished for good.
Two weeks out from the end of the season, here is the current state of play and what every team needs to do over the final fortnight in this week's edition of The NRL run home.
Round 26 tips
Brisbane Broncos lose to Melbourne Storm
Manly Sea Eagles defeat St George Illawarra Dragons
Penrith Panthers defeat Canterbury Bulldogs
Gold Coast Titans lose to South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sydney Roosters defeat The Dolphins
North Queensland Cowboys defeat Wests Tigers
New Zealand Warriors defeat Newcastle Knights
Parramatta Eels lose to Cronulla Sharks
1. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 1st, 38 points, + 295
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors picked up a critical win over the Rabbitohs on the weekend and have found some serious form at the right time of the year.
Just as importantly, the Panthers lost in Round 24, and the Roosters dropped their worst performance of the year against the Tigers on Sunday.
That all means the Warriors are now at the top of the ladder on for and against, and while it's tight, if they take care of business in their remaining games - both at home - they could well become the minor premiers.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 5th
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Up 2
2. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 2nd, 38 points, + 294
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (home)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers turned things around on the weekend with a win over the Melbourne Storm, although it's hard to say it fixes the question marks about their form line.
The performance was shaky at best.
The two critical competition points, which come ahead of two games they should win in the final two weeks, mean the Panthers need to simply overthrow a for and against differential of one point to the Warriors if they want to win the minor premiership.
Two losses could yet, as unlikely as it may seem, drop them out of the top four, as is the case for the Warriors and Roosters who are equal on points.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 5th
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 3rd, 38 points, + 162
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: The Dolphins (home)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The Roosters, as just mentioned, put in what could only be described as their worst performance of the year on the weekend.
The loss to the Tigers brings them back to level pegging with the Panthers and Warriors, and while we expect the Roosters to win both of their games, the for and against difference is a mountain they won't be able to climb.
That likely leaves them away from home for Week 1 of the finals.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 5th
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Down 2
4. The Dolphins
Current position: 4th, 36 points, + 138
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
The Dolphins continued their excellent form on Friday evening with a strong win over the Parramatta Eels, and they are charging into their first finals series.
That is now locked in, and the minor premiership remains a slim chance if the teams ahead of them all slip up.
What is more likely though is that, if they can win both of their games - and this week's is the challenge - they finish in the top four.
We do have the Dolphins losing this week though and slipping to fifth.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 6th
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Nil
5. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 5th, 34 points, + 173
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Sharks have a fairly simple run in, but were on a track to challenge for their third straight loss on Sunday afternoon before getting it together against the Titans.
The eventual win will inspire some confidence, but the Sharks have a bridge to climb if they are going to be competitive against the best teams.
Their simple run in against the Eels and Storm at home means they should take care of business and at the very least secure a second chance in the finals.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Nil
6. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 6th, 32 points, + 56
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Bye
The last team with an already confirmed finals spot, the Knights have the bye in the final round and a tune up against the Warriors this week.
While they will play in the finals, a win to turn around their loss against Manly on Saturday is critical not only to the form line, but to their chances of hosting an elimination final.
Newcastle could still finish in the top four, but they'd need to win by plenty this week and have both the Sharks and Dolphins lose by plenty - the for and against turnaropund to the Sharks is over 100, although they are only two points ahead. The for and against turnaround to the Dolphins is 82.
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 7th, 30 points, + 63
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs came up well short aainst the Warriors on the weekend and are suddenly back in the scrap to make the finals.
Their for and against does leave them in a good position provided they can find at least one more win, which they should do this weekend against the Gold Coast.
Lose that though and they are incredibly vulnerable to the Bulldogs, or pending margins, even Manly.
They play the Roosters in the last round which will be an uphill battle.
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 10th
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Down 1
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 30 points, - 78
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys have now had their third and final bye for the year, and will set sail towards the finals.
They need at least one, but potentially two wins to qualify given their for and against, but it would be a surprise if they don't claim both given they play the Tigers and Raiders both at home.
Winning both of those games leaves them a chance of playing a home qualifying final, but losses in recent weeks have made that though. They would need at least two of the Rabbitohs to not win both, the the Knights to lose this weekend or the Sharks to lose both if they were any chance of playing a home elimination final.
And even then it would come down to for and against which doesn't suit Todd Payten's side right now.
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 10th
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Up 1
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 9th, 28 points, - 32
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (away)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs face a tricky run in with the Panthers this week, and the Broncos next week in what could be an emotionally charged game if Adam Reynolds is playing his last.
Canterbury, to make the finals, even with their win over the Dragons on the weekend, need to likely win both of their games.
If the Cowboys and Rabbitohs lose both of theirs, then it will be an outright leap into the finals, but if the two clubs ahead of them only lose one from two, for and against will be the deciding factor.
Another loss for the Bulldogs would be almost curtains, even if not mathematically just yet providing the clubs ahead of them lose.
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 26 points, + 66
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (home)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (away)
The Sea Eagles are the last team with a mathematical hope of making the finals, but they'd need a miracle.
Apart from two wins - and the size of them doesn't matter given their own positive for and against - they'd need at least two of the Bulldogs losing at least one game, the Cowboys losing both games, or the Rabbitohs losing both games, to occur.
It's not out of the realms of possibility, but clearly, it's fairly unlikely.
Best-case scenario: 7th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Up 1
11. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 11th, 24 points, - 12
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (away)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Storm's loss to the Panthers knocks them out of contention for the finals, with Craig Bellamy's side six points back with just two weeks to go.
They will look to close out the season on a high and avoid the bottom four, while also putting some building blocks in place for next year.
The Sharks in the final round will be a challenge.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up 1
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 24 points, 65
Byes remaining: 1
Games remaining
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders follow up the let down of not knocking over the Broncos in Josh Papalii's final game in Canberra with a bye this week.
They will be right up for that final round game in Townsville, but the defending minor premiers are now a confirmed finals absence for this year.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down 2
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 22 points, - 199
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (home)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Eels lost to the Dolphins on the weekend, and while they are out of contention for the wooden spoon, the blue and gold still could need a win to get away from the bottom four.
They play the Sharks and Dragons on the run in - by no means easy wins.
Two losses could yet mean they fall as far as 16th.
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 22 points, - 212
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (away)
The Tigers pulled off one of the season's biggest upsets on Sunday, knocking over the Sydney Roosters.
It was a scrappy game, but the two points gives them a shot at avoiding the bottom four and confirms they can't win the wooden spoon.
It's a tricky finish with the Cowboys and Panthers, but they just might be able to dish out another surprise or scare.
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
15. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 15th, 20 points, - 194
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Broncos managed a win over Canberra on Friday evening, clearing them from the thret of a wooden spoon.
It has been a miserable season for the defending premiers, and they will look to record a win at home this weekend, before destroying the finals hopes of Canterbury next weekend.
We have them finishing well entrenched in the bottom four though, although they can escape with a big finish to the year.
Best-case scenario: 11th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Up 1
16. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 162
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (home)
The Titans gave the Sharks a scare on Sunday afternoon, but ended up well short of the mark by the time the fulltime siren sounded.
They face the Rabbitohs and Dolphins in the final two rounds, and it's hard to see them winning a game, although keeping margins slim will be the key to avoiding the wooden spoon if the Dragons find a way to record two big wins.
Best-case scenario: 13th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Down 1
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 14 points, - 293
Byes remaining: 0
Games remaining
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (home)
The Dragons chances of avoiding the wooden spoon were all but snuffed out over the weekend with a loss to the Bulldogs.
To avoid finishing last, they'd need two big wins, and the Titans would need two big losses. That is now the only path off the bottom of the table.
It has been a disaster of a year for the Red V, but they will be hoping to find some green shoots over the final two weeks.
Best-case scenario: 16th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. New Zealand Warriors
2. Penrith Panthers
3. Sydney Roosters
4. Cronulla Sharks
5. The Dolphins
6. Newcastle Knights
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
8. North Queensland Cowboys
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
10. Manly Sea Eagles
11. Melbourne Storm
12. Canberra Raiders
13. Parramatta Eels
14. Wests Tigers
15. Brisbane Broncos
16. Gold Coast Titans
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: New Zealand Warriors vs Cronulla Sharks
Qualifying final 2: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Elimination final 1: The Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys
Elimination final 2: Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
