The ultimate guide to State of Origin selection

Fullback

Incumbent: Dylan Edwards
Edwards has spent a handful of games on the sideline to start the 2025 season and has been unable to take the Panthers out of the doldrums in the games he has played.

While he only has five try involvements in seven games, his average run metres - standing at 189 per game - are what he got picked off last year, so it's hard to say he has totally and utterly lost his way once that is combined with 39 tackle busts at over five per game.

Key rival: James Tedesco
Statistically, Tedesco at the very least on par with the incumbent fullback. While he has only scored two tries, he has assisted another seven through the nine games he has played.

Maybe the biggest factor though is that Tedesco has actually been better running the ball so far this season. 62 tackle busts at about seven per game, nine line breaks and 203 metres per game.

Other options: Ryan Papenhuyzen, Scott Drinkwater
Ryan Papenhuyzen is the clear leader when it comes to other options who might don the number one for the Blues. He has been in fine form for the Storm, and proved his worth with a four-try haul last weekend against the Wests Tigers.

Scott Drinkwater is the only other name that might be capable of featuring. His form has been consistent at the North Queensland Cowboys in recent seasons, but he is likely number four on the list of possible candidates for Laurie Daley's number one jumper, despite having 13 try involvements in 9 appearances this year, to go with 139 metres per game.

Verdict: Dylan Edwards

Wingers

Incumbents: Brian To'o and Zac Lomax
The incumbents on the wings for the Blues are a case of one certainty and one injury.

Brian To'o is a walk up selection for the Blues, even given he has spent some of the season out injured, and his stats are slightly down on previous seasons in an under-performing Penrith team.

He has never let the Blues down before, and is still averaging close to 200 metres per game.

Lomax, on the other hand, has been named to return for the Eels in Round 11 after a six-week injury lay-off.

Whether one game is enough for him to push his case or not remains to be seen, but his form at a poor-performing Parramatta outfit in the games he has played this year wasn't exactly up to the lofty standards he set himself on the wing at the Dragons in 2024.

Key rival: Jacob Kiraz
Kiraz has been one of the competition's form wingers since the start of 2024.

His breakout in form at the Bulldogs has seen him score 16 tries in his last 30 games, while he has averaged a consistent figure just shy of 190 metres per game in the same time.

Despite missing the start of the 2025 season injured, he now has five games under his belt and hasn't put a foot wrong in any of them.

Other options: Tom Trbojevic, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Sunia Turuva
There are other options on the wings for the Blues, but none appear to be at the front of the queue.

Tom Trbojevic is always a threat, and his 2021 Origin series performance looms large in the memory, but he simply can't keep himself fit enough for long enough to prove he wouldn't be a liability on this stage.

Mark Nawaqanitawase has been in good form for the Roosters, but might still be too raw for the Origin arena, although a couple of injuries could have him next in line.

Sunia Turuva is the only other player who could realistically push for a spot, although his game is a touch one-dimensional and he needs more development before being considered.

Verdict: Brian To'o and Jacob Kiraz

Centres

Incumbents: Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton
Stephen Crichton has quickly become one of the game's most important players, on top of already being one of the best centres.

The Canterbury captain has been in superb form, and could well be in the running to captain his state when Laurie Daley announces his team for Game 1.

Bradman Best, on the other hand, has had some struggles in a badly performing Newcastle team but has still been among that club's best, running for 167 metres per game across his nine appearances so far this year.

Key rival: Latrell Mitchell
What is clear is that Latrell Mitchell is well and truly in the running to take one of the jerseys in the centres.

While he is a club land fullback, Mitchell has too much X-Factor to overlook, even if his numbers don't jump off the stats sheet. He proved it again with his 48-metre field goal on the weekend.

His ability was also on display at centre in the 2021 State of Origin series.

Other options: Tom Trbojevic, Matt Burton, Jesse Ramien, Kotoni Staggs
There are other options in the centres, albeit, none look overly close to the side. Tom Trbojevic features here as he did on the wing, but, for the same reasons, likely won't be selected.

Matt Burton has Origin experience and could feature in the side at some point during the series if injuries strike, particularly given his form in helping the Bulldogs to the top of the NRL ladder, while Jesse Ramien and Kotoni Staggs on the outside edge of the conversation last year and continues a consistent run of form that will make him unlucky if he never plays Origin.

Verdict: Stephen Crichton and Latrell Mitchell

Five-eighth

Incumbent: Jarome Luai
Jarome Luai is the incumbent, but by no means a guarantee to retain his State of Origin jumper in Laurie Daley's new-look set-up.

Out of the Penrith Panthers system and now playing in the number seven jumper, Luai is yet to score a try and only has four assists in his nine games this year.

Defensively, his efficiency is down to just a tick over 80 per cent, and his running game isn't what it was either.

His form simply isn't good enough to retain the jersey if there are other options snapping at his heels - and there are.

Key rival: Mitchell Moses
Moses played halfback for the Blues last year in the stunning series win at Suncorp Stadium.

With the return of Nathan Cleary (more on that in a moment), it's going to mighty hard to overlook Moses. He only returned a handful of weeks ago from injury, but has a running and kicking game that mean he could fill either the six or seven.

Other options: Matt Burton
Burton is the other player in contention.

As mentioned, his form has been extremely solid for the Bulldogs in guiding them to the top of the table, but that is unlikely to be enough to win him a jersey without an injury.

Verdict: Mitchell Moses

Halfback

Incumbent: Mitchell Moses
Moses played halfback last year, but for reasons that are about to become clear, can't be considered the first-choice for the number seven jumper this go around.

His form since returning from injury has been good with four try assists in three games and a couple of forced drop outs to boot, but the fact he is averaging 84 metres per game and has a running game that has been on display over the years means he is the better candidate to run out in the number six.

Key rival: Nathan Cleary
Nathan Cleary has won four straight premierships with the Panthers, and you could argue that for at least one of them, he was the best player on the field in the grand final.

Beyond that, he has played countless finals series matches without blinking and is one of the elite halfbacks in the competition.

He has some question marks over his previous Origin performances but is going to be very difficult to leave out on record alone, even considering the Panthers are at the bottom of the table as the NRL season rolls into the feared State of Origin period.

Other options: Nicho Hynes, Adam Reynolds
Nicho Hynes and Adam Reynolds line up as the most likely other options to play at halfback, but realistically, if there is an injury to either of the starting halves, Jarome Luai is going to be first in, and Matt Burton could be next.

Adam Reynolds has a heap of experience, but at 34, he is injury prone and will go down as one of those players who should have played a lot more than two Origin games given his excellent career.

Nicho Hynes' form simply hasn't been good enough at the Sharks. More often than not, has been out-performed by Braydon Trindall in the last 12 months, and also has a poor track record at Origin level, albeit in shocking circumstances given he has played off the bench, or with 12 men when at halfback.

Verdict: Nathan Cleary

Props

Incumbents: Jake Trbojevic and Payne Haas
Payne Haas comes into this year's Origin series, if it's possible, somehow in better form than he has been in any other Origin build up.

His game for Brisbane has come on even further under Michael Maguire, and he is potentially the easiest selection the Blues will make this year.

Jake Trbojevic, on the other hand, is absolutely no guarantee to retain his Origin jumper for 2025 after playing limited minutes last year as captain, and seemingly going backwards in form for the Manly Sea Eagles since.

He averages just 62 metres per game as a prop. Simply not good enough to be considered.

Key rival: Terrell May
Reports out on Thursday suggested Terrell May is going to be overlooked for Game 1 because of his defence and 'eccentric' personality.

That would be one of the great Origin snubs.

His ten weeks of action so far this year have brought 172 metres per game, 40 tackles per game at almost 98 per cent, 33 offloads, 33 tackle breaks and 520 post-contact metres.

He has also done all that will churn out between 64 minutes and all of the minutes each week.

He is a must-select.

Other options: Mitchell Barnett, Spencer Leniu, Max King
Mitchell Barnett will be in this team somewhere after impressing on his Origin debut last year, but whether that's starting or off the bench remains to be seen.

The 31-year-old has made nine appearances this year as captain of the Warriors, averaging 138 metres per game.

Spencer Leniu was in the Origin team last year but may find it hard to be selected this year with a form line that has tailed off, while Max King appears to be the other option on the back of form which has been critical in the Bulldogs' drive to the top of the table over the opening ten rounds.

His performance on Good Friday against the South Sydney Rabbitohs stands out in particular.

Verdict: Payne Haas and Terrell May

Hooker

Incumbent: Reece Robson
Reece Robson is the incumbent and has done nothing to lose his jersey for this year's series.

He is tackling strongly at well over 40 per game, has been crafty with the ball in hand, and for a dummy half, has an excellent running game.

Key rival: Wayde Egan
If Robson wasn't playing as well as he was, or didn't debut last year, the hooker position would be a much larger toss up.

Wayde Egan has been excellent for the Warriors, and easily one of the Auckland-based club's best as they have made a push into the top four over the first half of the season.

Statistically, he defends about as well as Robson, runs the ball more, and has been equal almost everywhere else.

Other options: Apisai Koroisau, Blayke Brailey
Realistically, it's a two-way shootout for the Blues' number nine jumper with a clear-cut leader based on Origin experience, but Apisai Koroisau or Blayke Brailey will be the players to feature if injuries strike. Brailey in particular has improved his game out of sight in the last 18 months, while Koroisau has Origin experience.

Verdict: Reece Robson

Second-row

Incumbents: Liam Martin, Angus Crichton
The second-row starting spots seems like a battle of form against reputation. Liam Martin and Angus Crichton started in Game 3 last year, and have both been solid without setting the world on fire this year.

Martin might get critiqued for his perceived lack of production on the stats sheet, but he runs hard, tackles hard, and is the sort of player you need to win Origin matches when the going gets tough.

Crichton, on the other hand, has been playing in an up and down Roosters team. Like his teammates, Crichton's form has been up and down as well, with a couple of rushes of blood not helping matters. Still, he averages 128 metres per game and has 14 offloads to his name.

Key rival: Hudson Young
The key issue for last year's incumbents in winning their starting roles back is Hudson Young.

One of the competition's form players, he has crossed for seven tries, is running the ball like a freight train, and defending just as well.

He has played Origin before, but has never carried this sort of form into a series.

Other options: Haumole Olakau'atu, Keaon Koloamatangi
The Blues have two other big second-row options in Haumole Olakau'atu and Keaon Koloamatangi.

Olakau'atu is one of the competition's best ball-runners, and while the jury is still out on his defence, he hits as hard as anyone in the competition when he gets it right.

Koloamatangi brings an added advantage of being able to play in the middle third, and his form has been strong in a South Sydney side going up and down like a yo-yo, but he is just a tick behind Olakau'atu, with, all in all, the two form players winning out over the incumbents for the starting roles.

Verdict: Hudson Young and Haumole Olakau'atu

Lock

Incumbent: Cameron Murray
Cameron Murray's injury is one of the great shames for the Blues heading into this year's Origin campaign.

He has one of the competition's fastest play the balls, reads the game incredibly well, and ball plays fantastically.

Key rival: Isaah Yeo
With Murray out, Isaah Yeo is guaranteed to return to the starting side. One of the better locks in the competition at club level, it shouldn't be his role when Origin time comes.

He has often been accused - and rightly so - of stunting the Blues attack.

How he is used could determine this series. If he is used as a third prop, paving the way for a bench utility to play big minutes as a link man at 13, it could be to the Blues benefit.

Other options: Cameron McInnes
If Yeo cops an injury during the series, expect Cameron McInnes, who made his Origin debut last year, to feature at lock. A hard-nosed, no-nonsense defender, McInnes won't let anyone down, but doesn't gain selection ahead of the other 17 players.

Verdict: Isaah Yeo

Interchange

Incumbents: Connor Watson, Isaah Yeo, Mitchell Barnett, Spencer Leniu
The utility is the biggest question for the Blues, but maybe the easiest answer. There are backline players - like Matt Burton - they could go to, or specialist dummy halves like Tom Starling and Jacob Liddle, but realistically, Connor Watson can't be overlooked.

He can play just about anywhere on the field, and as a result, must be there.

With Yeo starting, and Leniu out of form, the only other incumbent who should be guaranteed a place is Mitchell Barnett.

Other options: Cameron McInnes, Liam Martin, Keaon Koloamatangi, Angus Crichton, Max King, Stefano Utoikamanu, Jacob Saifiti
There are two spots open on the bench for the Blues, and one must go to Angus Crichton as a specialist second-rower.

The other spot needs to be someone who can play on the edge and in the middle. Liam Martin and Keaon Koloamatangi are the two names that come to mind, with Martin grabbing the spot on Origin experience and not much else.

Verdict: Connor Watson, Mitchell Barnett, Liam Martin, Angus Crichton

Predicted NSW Blues team for Game 1

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Brian To'o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Jacob Kiraz
6. Mitchell Moses
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Payne Haas
9. Reece Robson
10. Terrell May
11. Haumole Olakau'atu
12. Hudson Young
13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange
14. Connor Watson
15. Mitchell Barnett
16. Liam Martin
17. Angus Crichton

18th man: Ryan Papenhuyzen
Extended squad*: Jacob Liddle, Sunia Turuva, Stefano Utoikamanu

* - Extended squad players are all on a club bye in Round 12.