The Queensland Maroons will need something bordering on a miracle to take home the State of Origin shield in 2025.
That is the lasting thought out of Game 1 on Wednesday night, where a below their best Blues still looked streets ahead of an ageing Maroons side.
The Queenslanders were bullied from the word go by the Blues middle third, and while they managed to keep out their opposition for the first 25 minutes, ill-discipline, penalties, errors and a staggering missed tackle count which was 30 by halftime and 54 at the end of the night told the story for the Maroons.
Only a horror show in front of the sticks from Nathan Cleary, and then Zac Lomax kept the game competitive for the Maroons, with the Blues winning in a four tries to one performance.
What is clear is that the Maroons need changes for Game 2 in Perth if they want to keep the series alive and head to Sydney with a chance of claiming an unlikely win to reclaim the Shield they lost last year.
The bottom line is that the Maroons have scored just one try in their last 160 minutes of Origin - and that came while the Blues had a player in the sin bin.
That both of those games came at Suncorp Stadium is even more alarming.
In fact, dating back to the start of last year's series, they have played 257 minutes of rugby league against the Blues with 13 players on the park for a grand total of two tries.
Coach Billy Slater isn't convinced it's a personnel issue at this stage, saying in his most recent match press conference, his team are capable of more.
"That sort of stuff, like every game, you go and sit down, you review it and go and take a breath. You let the players go back and play footy. They have a couple of games over the next week and a half, so that's not a decision or a conversation for now," Slater said during his post-match press conference on the potential of changes for Game 2.
"To be honest, I don't think it's a personnel thing. I know what this team is capable of, and that's why you can see I'm disappointed, because they haven't played their best footy. I feel responsible to try and help them get there. It's not a personnel thing," Slater said when asked if there were personnel problems in the side.
"To be honest, they have had a great attitude as well, but to the discipline side of the game, the attitude wasn't good enough."
But at this stage, if it's not a personnel thing, then it's a coaching thing.
Because two tries in 160 minutes of rugby league simply isn't good enough. It's not as if this Blues team, as good as they have been since rebounding from Joseph Suaalii's send off in Game 1 of last year's series, are the greatest defensive team in the history of Origin, or suddenly finding a new way to go about things.
They are just doing the hard yards, playing disciplined rugby league, and making the most of that on the scoreboard.
The exact opposite of what Queensland are doing.
The issue for the Maroons is that, for most of Wednesday night's encounter, they seemed to be at least a step behind the Blues, and so changes must be considered for Game 2.
The Kalyn Ponga dispute
Kalyn Ponga was not good on Wednesday night.
The stats line might show he finished up with 150 metres and was one of the more involved Queenslanders, but he had no time, no space, and virtually no impact.
That he took 21 runs to get those metres, with 58 of them kick return, goes to show exactly how poor his running game was for the most part.
In the Origin arena, metres from the back five are everything, and Ponga not only couldn't provide, but then, in desperately trying to get himself into the game, overplayed his hand on at least a couple of occasions, popping up where he wasn't needed and putting a dagger through Queensland's attack.
There is no guarantee Reece Walsh will be back for Game 2 - or in fact any better given his form for the Broncos.
But Billy Slater can't possibly pick Ponga again. His stats for the Knights are alarmingly poor this season, and while that team have been struggling, Queensland were no better on Wednesday night.
Options may be skinny, but with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow having none of his usual impact at centre, it may be time to bite the bullet and move him to fullback.
Murray Taulagi straight back in
The move of the Hammer to fullback comes with Murray Taulagi likely to return from a calf injury.
In truth, Tabuai-Fidow, based on previous Origin performances, as well as debutant Robert Toia and Melbourne Storm winger Xavier Coates, should be the only players in the Queensland back five guaranteed of going again in Perth.
Valentine Holmes also had a quiet night, but his goal kicking along probably means he remains in the side.
He struggles defensively in the centres, but for the good of the side, probably has to shuffle in there, with Taulagi, or otherwise, Selwyn Cobbo, who, has been in superb form for the Brisbane Broncos, a chance to feature in the back five.
Taulagi's fitness would be a major boost for the Maroons.
He has barely had a bad game for the state since making his debut, and like so many, seems to go to another level when in Maroon.
What to do with Cherry-Evans?
Maybe the biggest dispute is going to be in the halves for Queensland.
Not to say Tom Dearden set the world on fire last year playing five-eighth, but he is certainly the future of this Maroons team, and was impressive off the bench in limited minutes on Wednesday night.
His spot isn't up for dispute, but that of the captain certainly is.
Queensland might have a pick and stick policy dating back decades, but at what point does the skipper use up all the rope?
Dropping a captain in the middle of an Origin series would be as big a call as it gets, and yet, it's not one that wouldn't make sense, particularly if Ben Hunt returns.
In all likelihood, Cherry-Evans stays in the side, but his form for Manly has been on the wane ever since he announced he would leave at the end of the year.
To sit here and try to say that hasn't spilled over into Origin camp would be a tough sell.
Corey Horsburgh must play
As a Blues fan, the one thought that kept occurring on Wednesday night was 'thank everything that Queensland aren't about to introduce Corey Horsburgh.'
In conversations with Queensland fans during the game, it was clear they were thinking similarly, albeit, something more along the lines of 'it would be really nice to introduce Big Red right about now.'
How he wasn't picked for Game 1 given the form he has dished out for the Raiders over the first half of 2025 is beyond confusing, and one of the stranger calls Slater has made on the selection table since taking over the team.
Who he replaces is up for dispute.
Moeaki Fotuaika was awful in Game 1 and will be lucky to hold onto his spot if Slater does elect to bring in the Raiders' enforcer.
Jeremiah Nanai can't start
Jeremiah Nanai was rocks and diamonds for Queensland, although he was about the only player who looked like he was going to make anything happen.
The issue was, as predicted, he did too much tackling, which took some of the sting out of his attack, and it cost Queensland as well, with the Cowboys' second-rower missing five.
Nanai is one of the game's best attacking weapons when used correctly, but that isn't being part of the run on side at Origin level.
Beau Fermor only had limited minutes but was strong off the bench. He must start Game 2, with Nanai used after half an hour or so as a game breaker.
If Billy Slater goes out in straight sets here, serious questions are going to be asked.
The only coach he has ever looked the goods against is Brad Fittler.
Since then, he has been belted by Michael Maguire, and with Craig Bellamy overseeing Laurie Daley last night, he looked like a deer in the headlights again.
Changes are needed for Game 2, and for any Queenslander to think otherwise would be burying the truth behind nostalgia.
