2026 was always going to be a different year in the NRL.
Last year's top four - the Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs and Storm - in their majority came out of the blue.
While the Broncos and Storm were tipped widely to keep on rolling somewhere near the top of the ladder, at the end of Round 15, the clubs are going to sit somewhere between 11th and 15th on the table.
Before Sunday's game between the Titans and Tigers, they actually sit in back-to-back positions, all with either five or six wins from 13 or 14 games.
Of those four sides though, the club with the biggest excuse for their slide is the Raiders.
The loss of Jamal Fogarty before the season was absolutely enormous. You only need to look at the form line of the Manly Sea Eagles, his new club, to understand the difference he makes.
Fogarty will never get the credit of some of the game's more flashy halfbacks, but in a sped up rugby league where territory and kicking games, as well as good management, is everything, Fogarty makes all the difference.
During his time in Canberra, the Raiders' record with and without Fogarty was night and day, and there is little surprise they went as well as they did with a fit Fogarty throughout 2025.
While Manly's turnaround has corresponded with a direct clean up and simplification of their style following the removal of Anthony Seibold and appointment of Kieran Foran, there is little doubt Fogarty is the key cog in the wheel on the Northern Beaches.
The Raiders were keen mid-last year on replacing him with an experienced halfback, but failing that on the signing market, Ethan Sanders has been thrown the keys.
A rookie halfback is always going to have moments of greatness and moments that make you raise an eyebrow. Certainly, the Eels junior is improving week on week, but he is not a replacement for Jamal Fogarty in the same system that won a minor premiership last year before admittedly going out of the finals in straight sets.
Ricky Stuart, speaking after their latest loss to the Eels on Saturday evening labelled his side's attack 'predictable'.
“I don't want to take anything away from Parramatta as they did a good job holding us out, but we were pretty predictable, and that's not been disrespectful to the Eels, it's more that we're too predictable with the football and not courageous enough.” Stuart said.
“It's also different personnel but that's definitely not an excuse. You deal with what you got.
“It's a simple (fix). It'll be simple to fix because it's not our style.”
Other injuries haven't helped the green machine, granted, and once you combine those with defensive lapses, a change of pace in the game that hasn't fully suited them and the halfback issues, it's no surprise they sit where they are.
The thing is, as much as Canberra overachieved last year, this slide was somewhat predictable. Most still had them in the mix for the finals, but they are going to need to be very, very good from here to do that.
Now with 5 wins from 14 games, it's conceivable the Raiders need to win seven, or maybe even eight of their last ten to qualify for the top eight which has vanished up the road as they have stumbled to losing four of their last five.
Whether they make the finals this year or not though is almost a non-factor.
It's about effort, improvement and finding some consistency before heading into 2027, full steam ahead.
Stuart has some experience in his side, but for the most part, there are a lot of young players. Sanders is obviously the most inexperienced in a key role, but with the likes of Kaeo Weekes, Savelio Tamale, Jed Stuart, Owen Pattie, Ata Mariota, Joe Roddy and others pushing through their system, the future is bright for the club.
The improvement and potential is there in the coming years for the Raiders.
For now, it's just a game of patience.
