In a typically-Queensland performance, the Maroons pulled it off once again. Backs against the wall, a player in the sin-bin (controversially), both wingers injured, several players out of position and they scored two tries amid that turmoil.
Incredible stuff. The soul-searching in the NSW camp is on again.
Important note: Keep your eyes on late mail releases as players named to back up after State of Origin are potentially late withdrawals, while players not named and who appear on extended benches are potential inclusions.
Round 14: Tips and SuperCoach Notes
Why the Tigers will win: The Tigers of late have taken an incredible amount of inspiration out of being completely written off. This weekend they'll be incensed by Raiders' coach Ricky Stuart's decision to rest Jarrod Croker, landing his 300th game at home next week. The Tigers' enjoyed the bye last round, while the week before they put on their biggest ever score, completely humiliating the North Queensland Cowboys. Expect a packed home crowd at Campbelltown Stadium.
Why the Raiders will win: The Raiders have had a stunning last two months, and enjoyed a win over the highly-fancied South Sydney Rabbitohs in Sydney last week. In resting Jarrod Croker, their backline is hardly affected, still boasting plenty of strike. The Raiders will go into this match with tonnes of confidence, and the Tigers may still elect to rest their electric hooker Api Koroisau.
Fansided tip: Raiders by 4
SuperCoach Notes: Named on the extended bench, we may get our first glimpse of Tallyn Da Silva. Tigers fans and insiders can't praise him highly enough, and while he's a hooker, also has plenty of ability at fullback. Isaiah Papali'i is again an enticing prospect at $561K, averaging 56. For the Raiders, Corey Horsburgh is on a hot streak, brimming with confidence. He plays around 60 minutes per week and has a PPM of 1.1.
Why the Warriors will win: Three big returns for the Warriors in Wayde Egan, Dylan Walker and Mitch Barnett will bolster their stocks across the park. The Dolphins will likely rest stars Hamiso Tauai-Fidow and Tom Gilbert. The Warriors will be seething after their swing-and-miss against the heavily depleted Broncos outfit last week, and will return to Mount Smart to get their season back on steady ground.
Why the Dolphins will win: The Warriors have only had one win since Round 8 against the hapless Bulldogs. That undermines the narrative they built at the start of the year of a more resilient and consistent team that can make the finals. In May, The Dolphins have taken down the Dragons and Sharks (in Cronulla no less), as well as enjoying a bye round. Wayne Bennett knows how to build a season and will have them ready to rise up during this disrupted Origin period.
Fansided tip: Dolphins by 2
SuperCoach notes: There will likely be punters chasing points with Dallen Watene-Zelezniak after his last-start 128, but should be reminded that he's traditionally very hot and cold in NRLSC. Notably, he does have a 3-round average of 76.7, and a 5-round average of 73.4. Wayde Egan was one of the top three hookers for the start of the year, and has now dipped to $499K. Since returning to the top grade, Kodi Nikorima has earned early owners a staggering $252K.
Why the Titans will win: Both David Fifita and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui have been named to back up and will be on a high after their Origin heroics. The Titans will likely be boosted by the return of Sam Verrills to the run on side. He's currently named in the 14. Any time a team can play the Rabbitohs with Latrell Mitchell missing gives them a chance.
Why the Rabbitohs will win: No Kieran Foran this week, and with the slight Jayden Campbell named to play in the line at 6, you'd expect the likes of Tatola, Sele, Koloamatangi, Murray and Arrow to all put a giant target on the young livewire. While they're missing Latrell, Souths will be advantaged with both Cameron Murray and Jai Arrow expected to back up after Origin, as well as boasting Campbell Graham on the edge who will be looking to find his way into a NSW side looking for answers.
Fansided tip: Souths by 16
SuperCoach notes: Richard Kennar plays his first game of 2023 at $259K. Playing outside Campbell Graham and up against some flimsy Titans edge defense, he could have a big night and grab a few meat pies.
Why the Sharks will win: Back at home for the first time in over a month and with practically a full-strength side, the Sharks will go into this one as $1.60 (at time of publication) favourites. While Nicho Hynes was likely proud-as-punch to be given his Origin debut, it's likely he was internally frustrated at the role he was asked to play in a losing side. Expect him to fire.
Why the Broncos will win: Out of the five Broncos players who played Origin, only Selwyn Cobbo is officially rested. Reece Walsh will be on top of the world after executing his role to perfection on Wednesday night, although the Broncs have declared they will take Tristan Sailor along and make a decision closer to kick off. Brisbane has a heavy advantage in the forwards department for this match-up.
Fansided tip: Sharks by 4
SuperCoach notes: The Sharks have a good run coming up and will play Rounds 16 and 19. A number of good options include Briton Nikora, Ronaldo Mulitalo and William Kennedy for those looking for a POD option. Thomas Hazelton ($274K) is averaging 1.4PPM although only getting 20 minutes per game. For Brisbane, there are still a stack of SuperCoach relevant players however the middle of the Origin period is not the best time to bring them into your team.
Why the Roosters will win: If any team needed a bye to reset, it's the Roosters. Hardly setting the world on fire, the Roosters looked to have secured a win over the rejuvenated Dragons in Round 12 before choking at the death. Coming up against a Bulldogs outfit that continues to gift opposition teams penalties and errors could present a platform to get their season back on track. The Bondi-based team will welcome back Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Joseph Manu, and it looks imminent that Daniel Tupou can be added to that list. These are huge ins for the tri-colours.
Why the Bulldogs will win: Tevita Pangai Junior and Josh Addo-Carr are named on the extended bench but will likely back up from Origin, given the decent turnaround. While their first half against the Titans in Round 12 was diabolical, their second half was the complete opposite. The Bulldogs enjoyed their first bye for the year last week and will be rested and ready. The Roosters have taken this game away from Allianz Stadium up to Gosford, removing a sizeable chunk of that home ground advantage.
Fansided tip: Roosters by 12
SuperCoach notes: Harrison Edwards looks to have cemented a bench role for the 'Dogs and has made owners $184K across four games. Jayden Okunbor ($357K) presents an intriguing proposition, starting this game in the second row - his transformation from winger now complete. The Roosters have a star-studded bench for this clash and Angus Crichton ($603K) must be close to returning to a starting role where he will likely generate a bunch of cash.
Why the Cowboys will win: They lost last week against a sharp Parramatta Eels side at Commbank, but their performance was leagues above what they dished up the week before in their record-breaking loss to the Wests Tigers. The Maroons in the side will be high on confidence after defeating NSW and will bring some winning culture back to the side. The Cowboys will be at home and the closeness of this competition still has them only two wins outside the top eight. Jason Taumalolo is an ominous inclusion on the extended lineup and if he is named will bring plenty of punch back to the middle. Jeremiah Nanai is also a solid inclusion, returning via the bench.
Why the Storm will win: Fresh off the bye, the Storm are in good touch, posting wins over two other Queensland-based sides in the past few weeks in the Broncos and Dolphins. Both Cameron Munster and Harry Grant are named, and the Storm should have far more defensive resolve to be troubled in this one.
Fansided tip: Storm by 14
SuperCoach notes: With a BE of just 3 and a 3-round average of 68, Eliesa Katoa shapes as a good buy this week for the 88% of players that don't have him. Valentine Holmes is close to being a sell although punters may want to hold on this week as it may be tricky to get 17 on the park. If Taumalolo comes back, he's worth watching at $491K.
Why the Panthers will win: Despite sitting on the top of the ladder, Penrith won't be taking a backwards step and will look to play all six Origin representatives in this clash where they also potentially welcome back Izack Tago and Spencer Leniu. After a disappointing loss against the Maroons, the Panthers' rep players will be smarting and looking to take out some frustrations in front of loyal home fans. Fresh off the bye, the Panthers have put away the Roosters, Broncos and Warriors since their shock loss to the Tigers in April.
Why the Dragons will win: Ben Hunt continues to get better with every season, and when he's in the lineup, it doesn't matter how bad the Dragons are going - you give them a chance. If St George Illawarra can go with Panthers early, they can potentially get under the skin of the 'Mountain Men', many of whom are still rattled from Origin.
Fansided tip: Panthers by 20
SuperCoach notes: While it's mind-blowing that the conversation is even taking place, the reasons why Dylan Edwards stands as a potential replacement for James Tedesco in Origin game two are plentiful and he could have a massive one on Sunday. For NSW to discover their identity, Nathan Cleary needs to take ownership of the team and it's hard to do that with Tedesco regularly taking things into his own hands. Edwards could complete the Panthers connection and give dominance to Cleary. Meanwhile, for those who picked up Tyrone Peachey, you've made $163K but with Tago likely to return, it may be time to sell.