The out of sorts Canterbury Bulldogs will travel to Victoria to open the NRL finals, clashing with an also understrength Melbourne Storm for a chance to win what will be a critical week off.
In what will be a contest between two sides both facing injuries, the Storm come in without a couple of key spine players, while the Bulldogs had a pair of outside backs go down last weekend.
It has been a tale of mixed form in recent weeks for both sides, despite their ultimately high finish on the ladder.
The Storm, who looked like world beaters at one point, have lost back-to-back games, falling short 40 points to 10 against the Sydney Roosters at home in Round 26, and then stumbling against the Brisbane Broncos in the final round 30 points to 14.
They had wins under their belt prior to that, beating the Bulldogs in Round 25 and their previous four games before that, although none of the performances - admittedly without halfback Jahrome Hughes steering the ship - looked all that convincing.
If it's the smell test the Storm have failed over the final seven or so weeks of the season though, then there is little doubt the Bulldogs are failing the same.
Leading the competition with ten wins from their first eleven games, the Bulldogs inexplicably elected to shift their spine around for the run to the finals, and it has cost them a home qualifying final.
Lachlan Galvin's arrival has done nothing to improve the team, while the axing of Reed Mahoney, first to the bench, and now altogether, has also raised eyebrows.
Canterbury barely fired a shot in a 24 points to 6 loss against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend, and while they defeated a reserve grade Penrith Panthers outfit in Round 26, they have lost three of their last four and are searching for answers as the knockout rounds get underway.
Team news
Melbourne Storm
1. Nick Meaney, 2. Will Warbrick, 3. Grant Anderson, 4. Joe Chan, 5. Xavier Coates, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Tyran Wishart, 8. Stefano Utoikamanu, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Josh King, 11. Ativalu Lisati, 12. Eliesa Katoa, 13. Trent Loiero
Interchange: 14. Jonah Pezet, 15. Alec MacDonald, 16. Tui Kamikamica, 17.Bronson Garlick
Reserves: 19. Marion Seve, 20. Jack Howarth
Melbourne have been forced into a pair of changes for this one, with Ryan Papenhuyzen missnig through a concussion, and Jahrome Hughes out to a broken wrist.
The week off will be critical for Melbourne in attempting to get Hughes back onto the field before they have to play sudden death footy.
At the back, Nick Meaney will play fullback, with Joe Chan slotting into the centres. Jack Howarth is still in the squad at the 24-hour to go mark and could come into the side as he looks to return from a groin issue.
Elsewhere, Tyran Wishart starts at halfback and Jonah Pezet joins the bench, while last week's rester Stefano Utoikamanu returns, replacing the suspended Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Connor Tracey, 2. Jethro Rinakama, 3. Enari Tuala, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Blake Wilson, 6. Matt Burton, 7. Lachlan Galvin, 8. Max King, 9. Bailey Hayward, 10. Samuel Hughes, 11. Viliame Kikau, 12. Jacob Preston, 13. Jaeman Salmon
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann, 15. Sitili Tupouniua, 16. Josh Curran, 21. Toby Sexton
Reserves: 22. Harry Hayes, 23. Jacob Kiraz
For the Bulldogs, both Bronson Xerri with a concussion and Marcelo Montoya with an ankle injury are out.
Jethro Rinakama and Blake Wilson are the new wingers, with Enari Tuala in the centres, however, Jacob Kiraz is still in the squad at the 24-hour to go mark as he looks to return, and could well take Wilson's spot.
Harry Hayes is also still in the squad as he fights to return.
In a surprise twice, Toby Sexton will also be recalled from the bench, taking the spot of Reed Mahoney. Sexton was originally dropped out of the ladder-leading halves combination to facilitate Lachlan Galvin playing in the run-on side for Cameron Ciraldo's outfit.
History
Head-to-head record: Played 47, Storm 25, Bulldogs 22
Record at venue: Played 12, Storm 8, Bulldogs 4
Record in finals: Played 5, Bulldogs 3, Storm 2
Last meeting: Round 25, 2025, Storm 20 defeat Bulldogs 14 at AAMI Park
Keys to the game
Can Lachlan Galvin spark the Bulldogs' attack?
Maybe the question that will decide whether Canterbury can make anything at all of this finals series.
The club have simply not looked the same since Cameron Ciraldo made the call to take Toby Sexton out, and put Lachlan Galvin in.
Galvin is a talented player with high potential, but it has become clear he is simply not ready to be a halfback at this stage of his career.
There may even be a slight admission of that from Ciraldo in his team list for this weekend's game, with Sexton named on the bench after originally being in the reserves.
Sexton is likely to spend more time in the dummy half role than he will the halves, but there is a chance he plays some halfback if things aren't going right for Canterbury.
Last weekend, the blue and white barely fired a shot against Cronulla. They scored one try in 80 minutes, and that came off an intercept.
Two weeks prior to that, they spent most of the game camped on Melbourne's tryline but couldn't find a way to win.
If they can't score points, they won't win this, and the evidence overwhelmingly points towards that being the case.
How does the Storm deal with no Jahrome Hughes?
One of the bigger shocks was Tyran Wishart winning the halfback spot over Jonah Pezet, and in a strange way, it could keep Canterbury in the game.
In much the same way that Galvin isn't a halfback, nor is Wishart.
Jonah Pezet will likely play a role off the bench at some point to add some control for the Storm, but if they can't control the game with the ball in hand, it could lead to issues in how they run up points against the blue and white.
Can the Bulldogs stop Xavier Coates?
Indirectly related to the point above, the Bulldogs must find a way to stop Xavier Coates.
The towering winger, who is easily one of - if not the - best in the game, has been in stunning form recently, although the Brisbane Broncos, through a mix of blocking and luck, managed to slow him down last week.
It has looked for most of the season though like the Storm could simply kick it to Coates and let him go to work in the air.
The representative winger is simply that good, and whether Jacob Kiraz plays or not, the blue and white don't have the height or leaping ability to deal with him effectively.
The best play for Canterbury may well be to try and pressure young halves Tyran Wishart and, once he gets onto the field, Jonah Pezet, into not being able to kick effectively or often for Coates.
Which forward pack dominates?
Given the noted issues in the halves heading into this game, being on the front foot to control possession and territory is going to be absolutely critical.
Granted, the Bulldogs did it against the Storm a couple of weeks ago without being able to win, but in finals, the ball is generally in play a lot more, the pace if higher, and the intensity more ferocious.
As a general rule, if you have more of the ball, and more of the territory, you're going to win.
The Storm have an excellent middle third in Stefano Utoikamanu, Josh King and Trent Loiero, up against Max King, Samuel Hughes and Jaeman Salmon, while the benches add spark - although none as good as Josh Curran for Canterbury.
That all said, Utoikamanu comes in off a rest and needs to be the difference-maker in this game. The former Tiger is the biggest of the forwards and could put the Storm on the front foot early.
Prediction
The Bulldogs simply haven't looked like the side who once led the competition since about the middle of the season.
The big question for ours is whether the Storm can do it without Jahrome Hughes, but a handful of weeks ago they did against the Bulldogs despite spending most of the game on their own tryline.
Canterbury's attack simply isn't good enough to trouble a Melbourne defensive line that have been turning up and doing the same thing, particularly at this time of year, for two decades.
The Storm will win, but don't be surprised if it's close.
Storm by 8.
Key game information: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs, NRL qualifying final
Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEST), Friday, September 12
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
TV: Live, Channel 9 and Fox League (502)
Online: Live, 9Now and Kayo Sports
Betting: Storm $1.49, Bulldogs, $2.63
Match officials
Referee: Adam Gee
Touch judges: Dave Munro and Matt Noyen
Bunker official: Ashley Klein
