Rugby league's rise in New Zealand is no longer a slow burn — it's beginning to edge past rugby union in both relevance and reach.
Once firmly dominated by the All Blacks and the traditions of union, the sporting landscape is shifting as league gains ground with fans, broadcasters and emerging talent.
With growing calls for the country to host a 20th NRL franchise and discussions underway about a nationwide development system, the code is building momentum both on and off the field.
The New Zealand Warriors are at the centre of that surge, with their upcoming clash against the Dolphins in Wellington selling out ten days in advance — a sign of the game's expanding footprint across the country.
In contrast, the All Blacks, long considered the pinnacle of New Zealand sport, have struggled to fill the same stadium in recent years.
For rugby league broadcaster and former player Ken Laban, the shift is already evident in the viewing habits of fans.
"Only a few people have picked up on it, but if the Warriors are playing at the same time as Super Rugby, it's the Warriors playing on Sky Sport 1 on TV. Super Rugby is relegated to Sky Sport 2," Laban said to the Agence France-Presse (AFP).
"I think that about sums it up."
Even figures synonymous with rugby union are beginning to acknowledge the changing landscape.
All Blacks great Michael Jones warned the sport cannot afford to stand still as league continues to gain traction.
"You've got to tip your hat to what rugby league is doing, but honestly, if rugby keeps their heads in the clouds, we'll all be playing league," the 61-year-old said to the AFP.
"Rugby has such a heritage and legacy, and the All Blacks are a powerful brand.
"But we're kidding ourselves if we think the All Blacks will always be the All Blacks, that they'll always be that to our nation and to the people of the Pacific."
Jones emphasised the importance of strengthening ties with Pacific nations, suggesting rugby union risks falling behind if it fails to evolve.
"If Pacific rugby is strong, New Zealand rugby is strong," he said.
Adding that it would be a "tragedy" if rugby union did not find a way to better cater for Pacific supporters.
He cited rugby union's "archaic" eligibility rules as a major issue, holding back the ability to really promote the game.
"Samoa and Tonga are really on the periphery of world rugby," he said. "That's not the case in league."
His comments came just before the Moana Pasifika said it would fold unless new investors came in — a stark reminder of the challenges facing rugby union in the region.
As rugby league continues to grow its presence, the conversation is shifting from possibility to inevitability — and New Zealand may soon find itself at the forefront of the NRL's next expansion.
