There are just 40 games to go in the 2026 NRL regular season, and the race for the finals is well and truly on.

While we can just about confirm the Penrith Panthers, Sydney Roosters, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors and Dolphins are in, spots six through eight on the ladder are well and truly up for grabs.

Only the St George Illawarra Dragons are out of mathematical contention, although it's a good bet that the Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Gold Coast Titans are also out, with the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm hanging onto their campaigns by a thread that could be ripped out by other team's above them winning this weekend.

That leaves the Newcastle Knights, on 28 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canterbury Bulldogs and North Queensland Cowboys on 26 points, the Manly Sea Eagles on 24 points, and the Canberra Raiders on 22 points as the realistic combatants to close out the finals between 6th and 11th on the ladder at the present time.

The tricky part to note is the fact the Knights, Cowboys and Raiders, as well as the Storm, still have a bye up their sleeve over the final five weeks.

With all that information on the board, here are the biggest ten games that will decide who plays in the finals, and who is heading to Mad Monday at the end of Round 27.

9. Round 25: Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos, as mentioned, are pretty much out of the race for September footy, but if the Raiders are going to play, then this is simply a must-win game.

At home, in the back-end of the year, against a defending premier who is struggling.

Canberra welcomed Brisbane to the Australian capital city last year in a qualifying final and had their pants pulled down by Reece Walsh.

They will be hoping to contain him better this time around, and sweating on the fact that Brisbane being out of finals contention might be to their betterment.

The Raiders themselves are dangling by a thread and every game is as close to must-win as you could imagine, but particularly at home.

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