The Round 26 clash between the Canterbury Bulldogs and Penrith Panthers was billed as one of the clashes of the season.
The on the up Bulldogs against four-time premiers the Panthers, with both sides preparing for finals football.
Earlier in the year, in Round 17, the Panthers edged out Canterbury 16–14 at CommBank Stadium thanks to a Nathan Cleary charge-down and a penalty goal. That game was played at near full strength, and it left the Bulldogs burning for redemption.
But Ivan Cleary has changed the script.
In what can only be described as one of the most calculated 'art of war' strategies we've seen in modern rugby league, the Panthers coach has elected to rest his entire best 17.
More Round 26 news
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» Rapid fire: Every change for Round 26
» Two weeks to go: Every NRL team's run home, predicted final ladder
The psychological play
This move denies Canterbury any chance of true redemption.
If the Bulldogs win, no matter the margin, critics will place an asterisk next to it: “It wasn't the real Penrith.” If they don't win by 20, 30, or even 40 points, the game will be dismissed as underwhelming.
And if the Bulldogs were to stumble altogether, the fallout would be enormous.
Cleary has flipped the pressure entirely onto the Bulldogs.
They enter the match knowing their record against current top-eight teams sits at 4–4. Even with victory, they will find little relief from the narrative that questions their ability to beat the very best.
Impact on fans and the spectacle
The decision also robs the spectacle of its edge. Thursday night crowds are historically lower, but without Penrith's stars, the Panthers faithful have little reason to travel.
The stands will instead be filled by families of debutants and younger players making rare NRL appearances — many of whom may not see first grade again for years.
For the Bulldogs, this means lower gate takings and a flat atmosphere. Fans expecting to see an easy win may not turn up in the same numbers, while broadcasters lose the blockbuster energy they were banking on.
The Bulldogs' dilemma
For Cameron Ciraldo's side, the equation is simple: treat it like a semi-final, or risk embarrassment.
Take the Panthers lightly, and even this reserve-grade side is capable of pulling off an ambush. Penrith's culture and standards mean every player expects to win, no matter the line-up.
The Bulldogs must perform for the fans who do show up, bringing intensity, discipline, and ruthless finishing.
From their point of view, the only way to salvage anything from this contest is to punish the young Panthers, knock confidence out of them, and walk away with momentum heading into the finals.
The long game
While Penrith field a weakened side in Round 26, their stars will be fresh and ready for Round 27 against the Dragons.
A win there will secure fifth or sixth spot, handing the Panthers a home elimination final and setting them up for yet another march toward the grand final.
This is Ivan Cleary's masterstroke: he has robbed the Bulldogs of redemption, minimised risk to his stars, and ensured his team are primed for the real battles ahead.
In the art of war, the first blow isn't always on the battlefield — sometimes it's in the mind.
What a great article.
Such a good read.
I had to sign up to zero tackle just so I could comment on how great of article this is.
So factually on point.
Well thought-out and well structured and articulate.
These are the kind of articles I want to read.
Well done All things Bulldogs.
Cheers Dave.