The NRL has just eight games left in the 2026 regular season, and while the top eight teams are confirmed, the order of the way they will finish isn't.
The Dolphins incredible run to the finish line means they have taken the Cronulla Sharks likely top four spot, while the minor premiership is down to a for and against race between the Penrith Panthers and New Zealand Warriors, who haven't won the shield in 24 years.
The Sharks will have a home elimination final, while the South Sydney Rabbitohs must win to get one given the Newcastle Knights bye.
Elsewhere, the Manly Sea Eagles and Canterbury Bulldogs are the first teams out of finals contention. Manly left themselves too much to do despite winning against the Dragons on Friday with other results working against them, while the Bulldogs squandered the last dregs of their season in a loss to the Panthers.
Here is how the eight remaining games will shape the final ladder, with the best and worst case scenario for every team.
First, the tips for the final round.
Round 27
Canterbury Bulldogs defeat Brisbane Broncos
Gold Coast Titans lose to The Dolphins
South Sydney Rabbitohs lose to Sydney Roosters
New Zealand Warriors defeat New Zealand Warriors
North Queensland Cowboys defeat Canberra Raiders
Cronulla Sharks defeat Melbourne Storm
St George Illawarra Dragons defeat Parramatta Eels
Penrith Panthers defeat Wests Tigers
Note, where for and against becomes an issue below, we have used a maximum of 50-points per result (so, that's a 100-point turnaround if both teams in the question are playing in Round 27) to determine best and worst-case scenarios.
1. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 1st, 40 points, + 309
Game remaining: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
The Warriors stay at the top of the table, albeit by the narrowest of for and against margins, after their rollercoaster win over the 12-man Newcastle Knights on Sunday afternoon in Auckland.
The win means they are guaranteed a top two finish, but if the Panthers win by more than they do next weekend, then they will drop to second.
Regardless, if the Warriors simply keep winning, they will not leave Auckland again until a few days before the grand final.
That is a monumental advantage for Andrew Webster's side who could well look to rest a few next weekend against Manly.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 2nd
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Nil
2. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 2nd, 40 points, + 308
Game remaining: Wests Tigers (home)
The Panthers managed to take care of business against the Bulldogs early in the round, and are now only needing to beat the Tigers on Sunday by a couple more points than the Warriors beat Manly by.
That said, their for and against, like the Warriors, is so far ahead of the teams directly behind them that a top two finish is now guaranteed.
Like the Warriors, they are in a boat where they could rest a few this weekend.
Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but the Panthers will be hard to stop in September once again.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 2nd
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Nil
3. The Dolphins
Current position: 3rd, 38 points, + 152
Game remaining: Gold Coast Titans (away)
Ever since the Dolphins were blown off the park by 66 points against the Sharks in Round 19, they haven't put a foot wrong, winning six straight.
That has allowed them to be in a position to become the team to capitalise on the Cronulla Sharks' struggles, and they are now locked in for not only their first ever finals series, but also a double chance.
They can't get to the top two anymore unless thay have a 157-point for and against turnaround, so they could also look to rest a few this weekend.
As they play first out of the top four sides, they aren't going to have a clue whether they could manipulate their own performance to play their desired opponent in Week 1 of the finals.
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 4th
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Up 2
4. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 4th, 38 points, + 148
Game remaining: South Sydney Rabbitohs (away)
The local derby awaits the Roosters in their final game of the year, with the tri-colours looking to arrest a two-game slide against the Rabbitohs.
Either way, they are going to finish in either third or fourth spot, while they are coming up against a team with a fair bit more to play for.
Ordinarily, you'd guess Trent Robinson might be weighing up resting players this weekend, but given the Roosters form, that doesn't appear likely.
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 4th
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Down 1
5. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 5th, 34 points, + 153
Game remaining: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Sharks have had what could only be described as a disastrous couple of weeks, losing to three of the bottom five teams and scraping past another in the last four weeks.
For a team who were on cruise control with the easiest run to the finish line, the fact they are going to miss a qualifying final and instead go into sudden death knockout straight away is a disaster.
The Sharks still have the quality, and need to make a statement against the Storm this weekend, but time is running out for the black, white and blue to get it together, and a Week 1 bounce from the finals wouldn't be a stunner right now.
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 6th
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Down 1
6. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 6th, 32 points, + 83
Game remaining: Sydney Roosters (home)
The Rabbitohs will be looking to make it three straight losses for their arch rivals this weekend, but there is a lot more riding on it than that.
A big win could get them ahead of the Sharks and up to fifth, but a loss drops them below the Knights at the very least given their bye, and potentially the Cowboys if they win.
Realistically though, this is about winning for the Rabbitohs and ensuring they don't need to hit the road to the Hunter next weekend.
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
7. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 7th, 32 points, + 42
Game remaining: Bye
The Knights season took another dramatic twist in Auckland on Sunday when Jacob Saifiti was sent off for a devastating high shot. He is at long odds to play again this year.
The Knights were gritty and determined with 12 players though, and now have a week to freshen up ahead of the finals.
Their bye means they can't catch the Sharks on for and against, but it does mean they jump into a hosting slot for the elimination finals if the Rabbitohs lose to the Roosters.
Best-case scenario: 6th
Worst-case scenario: 7th
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
8. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 8th, 32 points, - 64
Game remaining: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Cowboys have been on the proverbail roller coaster in recent weeks, and that ultimately cost them the chance at a spot in the top four despite a pretty simple run home.
The Townsville-based outfit clash with the Raiders in their last game and while their finals spot is locked in, they could jump up a spot on the table with a win if the Rabbitohs lose.
The 122-point for and against turnaround to the Knights who have the bye means a home elimination final is now off the table.
Best-case scenario: 6th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
9. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 9th, 28 points, + 100
Game remaining: New Zealand Warriors (away)
The Sea Eagles took care of business against the Dragons on the weekend, but their mathematical odds of making the finals was simply never going to be in their favour.
In the end, results went against them and they are now officially removed from the finals race.
They could still look to upset the party in Auckland this weekend, but it will certainly be a test as they look to cling onto ninth spot.
A loss drops Kieran Foran's side out as far as 11th if the Bulldogs win, and if the Stom win by enough to flip an 86-point for and against margin.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 11th
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
10. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 10th, 28 points, - 46
Game remaining: Brisbane Broncos (home)
The Bulldogs can drop a spot further on the ladder than Manly given their less than impressive for and against which wasn't helped by coming up short against the Panthers on the weekend.
That was always going to be a tough game for the blue and white, who simply left themselves too much to do after a slow and lethargic start to the year, and enough losses to keep consistency in their own game and results far enough away from the venacular.
The Belmore side are already looking to 2027, but will still be keen to give the Broncos a beat down this weekend in a battle of two fallen top four sides.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
11. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 11th, 26 points, 26 points, + 14
Game remaining: Cronulla Sharks (away)
The Storm managed to win in Brisbane over the rudderless Broncos on the weekend and now aim up to play the Sharks in their final game of the year.
That's a tough ask with nothing to play for, but the Sharks have been woeful in recent times.
A win could, if results ahead of them go their way, get the Storm up to ninth, while a loss with the Raiders winning drops them to 12th. They can't go any lower than that without a for and against miracle we are calling impossible.
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Nil
12. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 12th, 26 points, - 65
Game remaining: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
The Raiders are another fallen top four side, and while they can be praised for showing a little bit more in the second half of the year, it certainly hasn't moved the needle to make them a finals side.
They had the bye over the weekend and will be stinging from their loss to Brisbane before that.
They could go up to Townsville and destroy the chance of a home final.
Best-case scenario: 10th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Nil
13. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 13th, 24 points, - 179
Game remaining: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
The Eels came away with a surprise win over the Sharks on the weekend, and while Cronulla were awful, the blue and gold were good, showing off a bit of their improvement from recent weeks.
Another win to round out the season against the wooden spooners would give them a bit of confidence for the off-season.
A win also enables them to not finish in the bottom four. A loss means the Tigers could jump them.
Best-case scenario: 13th
Worst-case scenario: 14th
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Nil
14. Wests Tigers
Current position: 14th, 22 points, - 226
Game remaining: Penrith Panthers (away)
The Tigers can escape the bottom four with a win over the Panthers if the Eels lose.
A win over the Panthers might seem unlikely, but there is a chance Ivan Cleary will look to rest multiple players.
Best-case scenario: 13th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
15. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 15th, 20 points, - 220
Game remaining: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
What a disaster of a year it has been for the Broncos.
That comes to an end on Friday against the Bulldogs, with the Broncos only able to climb one spot with a win if the Tigers lose, or fall one spot with a loss if the Titans win.
Best-case scenario: 14th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
16. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 16th, 18 points, - 182
Game remaining: The Dolphins (home)
The Titans appear as if they will finish in the bottom two, although a win against the red-hot Dolphins could push them up a spot on the ladder.
It's not ladder position Josh Hannay will be worried about though as players fight for spots and contracts next year.
Best-case scenario: 15th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 17th, 14 points, - 327
Game remaining: Parramatta Eels (home)
Whatever slim mathematical hope the Dragons had of avoiding the wooden spoon went up in smoke on the weekend as they conceded more than 40 points for the second time in a row.
They are hitting the finish line at a crawl after some positive signs, and the Round 27 clash against the Eels doesn't exactly promise much in the way of a quality game of footy.
Best-case scenario: 17th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Predicted final ladder
1. New Zealand Warriors
2. Penrith Panthers
3. The Dolphins
4. Sydney Roosters
5. Cronulla Sharks
6. Newcastle Knights
7. North Queensland Cowboys
8. South Sydney Rabbitohs
9. Canterbury Bulldogs
10. Manly Sea Eagles
11. Melbourne Storm
12. Canberra Raiders
13. Parramatta Eels
14. Wests Tigers
15. Brisbane Broncos
16. Gold Coast Titans
17. St George Illawarra Dragons
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1: New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters
Qualifying final 2: Penrith Panthers vs The Dolphins
Elimination final 1: Cronulla Sharks vs vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Elimination final 2: Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys
