The race for the NRL's minor premiership is beginning to heat up, and the top four looks to have cemented itself as the Warriors, Panthers, Roosters and Dolphins are expected to hold their spots.
History heavily suggests teams only have a chance at the title if they finish the regular season in one of the top four positions.
Let's run through why each of the four sides can win the 2026 premiership and what's working in their favour.
Penrith Panthers
Proven experience
The Panthers have all the big-game experience in the world. Recording four premierships in a row between 2021 and 2024 has set them up exceptionally to succeed in finals-like intensity.
With the team's nucleus remaining mostly intact throughout the premiership raid era, including Dylan Edwards, Nathan Cleary, Mitch Kenny and Isaah Yeo, they are primed and ready to make their mark and return the trophy to Western Sydney.
Change of guard approaching
With Ivan Cleary departing the coaching duties at the end of next year, and Brian To'o leaving for the PNG Chiefs at the same, whilst Nathan is yet to make a decision on his future beyond 2027, there seems to be a significant change of guard occurring soon on the foot of the mountains.
It means there will be an extra incentive to send off some of the Panthers' biggest names as winners in the next two finals series, which could be the difference in motivation separating them from its opponents.
Finals-like defensive scramble
Everyone knows defence wins premierships. The Panthers have mastered a set-and-release style-defensive system which kept them past an arm's reach from all the other teams in their four-year run.
The club boasts a strong defensive record this year, averaging only 14 points conceded per game in an era where points are incredibly easy to come by.
They sit on top of the NRL as the club conceding the least points in 2026.
Nathan Cleary ultimate clutch
Not much needs to be said here. Cleary's illustrious career has seen him dominate the big moments time and time again, with plenty of suggestion 2026 will be no different.
2023 Grand Final, he orchestrated a 15-minute demolition of the Broncos to steal the title, capped off with an elite solo try.
While most recently dominated at Origin level for the NSW Blues in Game 3 decider at Suncorp, scoring two tries, five goals, and an important ball strip when the game was in the balance to claim the Wally Lewis Medal as the series MVP.
Yardage game
Penrith's yardage work is miles ahead of the rest of the league. To'o, Edwards, Alamoti, McLean and Jenkins all put up massive numbers consistently in plays one and two to give their pack a well-deserved rest.
To'o and Jenkins are averaging over 190 metres per game with his work out of trouble, setting the foundations for Cleary, Yeo and Cogger to work their magic with time in hand with the ball.
