The race for the NRL's minor premiership is beginning to heat up, and the top four looks to have cemented itself as the Warriors, Panthers, Roosters and Dolphins are expected to hold their spots.
History heavily suggests teams only have a chance at the title if they finish the regular season in one of the top four positions.
Let's run through why each of the four sides can win the 2026 premiership and what's working in their favour.
Sydney Roosters
Senior playing group experience
The Roosters have an all-star spine with a plethora of big-game experience from players who know how to get the job done. James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans, Sam Walker and Reece Robson round out an incredible leadership group that can steady the ship if things don't go their way.
Cherry-Evans is closing in on 400 games, and is the most prolific field goal match-winner in the NRL, and rest assured the tri-colours may need to rely on him to get them over the line in the big matches throughout the finals.
Terrifying ceiling
The Roosters' ceiling is the highest of any side in the NRL. When they get it right, they get it really right, as we saw in the 82-12 demolition of the Cowboys a month ago.
Although at times they've struggled to put it all together, such as in their latest loss to the Wests Tigers, looking rudderless.
In the glimpses we've seen on both sides of the ball, including their 12-6 gritty thriller against Penrith, that in both defence and attack, they can be the best team in the comp.
If Trent Robinson can hone in on the good and produce no less than an 8/10 performance each week leading into the play-offs, they will be there in the first week of October.
X-factor across the park
The Roosters have game-breakers across the park that only a handful of players in the NRL could conjure some of the things Mark Nawaqanitawase can do, while his right-side centre Robert Toia is establishing himself as one of the most dangerous young stars in the competition.
With Walker and Cherry-Evans' elite creativity for their outside men, they can make points happen from anywhere on the field.
Well-timed run
Their latest loss to the Tigers is a blessing in disguise. A defeat two weeks from the end of the season helps re-stabilise and reset the playing group. The club was on an eight-game win streak and would be feeling the pressure to keep those standards if they faced Top 4 quality without a loss that brings them back down to earth.
Now they can go back to the drawing board, remember what works best for them, and go on a well-timed momentum run into September.
Timely injury returns
The tri-colours are neck-and-neck with the Warriors and Panthers for the minor premiership, and have been doing so in past weeks without some big guns, who are due back for the finals.
Tedesco, Daniel Tupou and Angus Crichton are all expected to be fit for the Roosters' finals run, and all three representative-level stars add plenty to their title chances.
With Nawaqanitawase and Crichton departing for Rugby at the end of the season, while departing veteran Cherry-Evans is also leaving the pen for England, the Roosters will be itching to send them off as champions.
