Coaching security in the NRL is rarely black and white.
Results matter, but so do roster cycles, club politics, cultural impact and long-term vision.
Heading into 2026, some coaches are virtually untouchable, while others are entering seasons that could define, or end, their tenures.
Here is the safety metre of every NRL coach heading into 2026.
Michael Maguire – 10
Michael Maguire's reputation as a premiership-winning, standards-driven coach gives him immense protection.
The Brisbane Broncos coach won a premiership in his first year at the club, an insane feat given the club wasn't expected to even make the Grand Final by most.
Coming off the back of a Grand Final win, Maguire's success in Brisbane ensures his job security remains untouched heading into 2026.
Craig Bellamy – 10
Craig Bellamy has transcended traditional job security metrics. He isn't judged on single seasons, he's judged on eras.
The Melbourne Storm have made clear that Bellamy can coach the club as long as he wants, an honour that very few in history have been granted.
The club's continued competitiveness, development pipeline and institutional trust mean Bellamy could choose his exit date rather than be forced out.
Ivan Cleary – 10
Ivan Cleary has delivered one of the greatest dynasties in NRL history, ensuring he is the Penrith Panthers go-to man for life, if he wants.
Four consecutive premierships and an elite development system mean Penrith's future is inseparable from him.
Even during an eventual decline phase, Cleary's job will remain safe, with his son Nathan Cleary likely donning the club's halfback jumper for the next decade.
Ricky Stuart – 10
Ricky Stuart is deeply embedded in the Canberra Raiders identity in a way that not many coaches are.
His influence stretches across recruitment, culture and club direction, with every success rooting back to him as the cause.
After winning the minor premiership in 2025 and delivering one of the most memorable seasons in recent years, Stuart's tenure in Canberra is completely safe.
Andrew Webster – 9
Webster has overseen a complete cultural reset at the New Zealand Warriors.
His ability to connect with players, restore belief and build consistency has earned enormous goodwill, with many Warriors stars singing his praises.
A short-term dip wouldn't threaten his job, he's viewed as a long-term leader.
Cameron Ciraldo – 8
Cameron Ciraldo was hired with patience in mind.
Despite that, the Canterbury Bulldogs have managed to exceed expectations in recent years, securing back-to-back finals berths for the first time in 10 years.
While expectations are rising, 2026 is still part of the bigger picture, with the young coach's roster rebuild still undergoing.
Jason Ryles – 8
Jason Ryles enters 2026 with the benefit of a fresh mandate and strong internal support.
The Parramatta Eels see him as a culture-builder rather than a short-term fixer, with the rookie coach putting work into rebuilding the roster's identity.
Results will matter, but the club expects evolution rather than instant dominance.
Wayne Bennett – 8
Wayne Bennett's influence goes beyond wins and losses, so it would take an extremely poor showing from the South Sydney Rabbitohs in 2026 for the club to even consider axing the mastermind coach.
His presence legitimises clubs, attracts players and sets standards, all traits that the Rabbitohs hope he can bring in now that the squad is relatively healthy.
Even if performance dips, his authority and long-term value keep him comfortably safe.
Kristian Woolf – 7
Kristian Woolf is still early in his Dolphins tenure, but patience won't last forever.
The Dolphins are a legitimate finals contender going into their fourth season in the NRL, and Woolf will be expected to take them there.
If the Redcliffe-based side can't get over the hump in 2026, questions may begin to be asked.
Trent Robinson – 7
Trent Robinson's achievements ensure respect, but the Sydney Roosters operate under relentless expectations.
Injuries and roster turnover have offered some protection, but with Daly Cherry-Evans joining the club and countless rep players across the board, the Roosters should be in the upper echelon of rugby league sides.
If the Roosters fail to make a prelim, Robinson will be under more pressure than ever before.
Craig Fitzgibbon – 7
Craig Fitzgibbon has made the Cronulla Sharks consistent finals contenders, but premiership aspirations loom large.
While he did get his side all the way to a prelim in 2025, the Sharks will be expected to repeat
The Sharks' roster is approaching its peak, and repeated near misses will increase pressure quickly.
Shane Flanagan – 6
Shane Flanagan's rebuild is deliberate and methodical, but St George Illawarra Dragons fans are desperate for results.
The recent signing of Keon Koloamatangi speaks to his impressive recruitment strategies, but it won't mean much if he can't build a strong side around him.
While the club supports his long-term vision, 2026 will demand visible improvement, not just promises.
Josh Hannay – 6
Josh Hannay has strong internal backing, but the Gold Coast Titans patience has worn thin historically.
Defensive lapses and inconsistency remain major concerns, and although Hannay has only just arrived at the club, the Titans will be expecting more success now that the side has shedded a few unwanted pieces.
Justin Holbrook – 6
Justin Holbrook is in a similar position to Hannay, however, the Newcastle Knights' roster is far more uncertain.
Holbrook will need to prove he can manage this side correctly, despite question marks around players in key positions.
If he can get this side close to the top 8, his safety in Newcastle will be much greater.
Benji Marshall – 5
Marshall has restored pride and connection at the Wests Tigers, but results can no longer be ignored.
Although he was extended at the end of 2025, the move felt more like a strategy to please the players, and if the side can't get results, his job may be on the line sooner than we think.
Cultural improvement has bought time but wins must now follow. 2026 looms as a critical proving ground.
Anthony Seibold – 3
The Manly Sea Eagles' roster demands finals football — anything less intensifies scrutiny on Anthony Seibold, whose position feels increasingly fragile.
His inability to retain star players and questionable tactics continue to cause noise for the club, and if he can't manage to get Manly back on track, it could spell his doom.
A poor start to 2026 could trigger swift action.
Todd Payten – 1
Todd Payten enters 2026 under immense pressure, and he will most likely be the next NRL coach to get axed if the North Queensland Cowboys can't improve.
After a rapid rise and subsequent regression, expectations have outpaced results. With a side littered with State of Origin stars, Payten is struggling to reflect their firepower on the scoreboard.
With limited patience remaining, early-season struggles could prove terminal for Payten's Cowboys tenure.
If I were Hannay I would feel more secure than if I were Holbrook.
The owners of the Titans and the Knights are sufficiently world-wise to understand that a first year coach – working in a transfer system that is built around a twelve-month delay between contract acceptance and appearance on the park – is not likely to be able to change the club’s fortune in his first couple of years.
Having said that, Holbrook has his hands tied by long-term expensive contracts for Brown and Ponga which will limit his freedom to change the squad’s composition. Hannay is less constrained.
Mr. Marshall has just signed a contract extension, so the knowledge that the club would be averse to paying him out – both for the financial impact and for the optics of another boardroom bust-up – make him safer than both Hannay and Holbrook, in my view.
How in gods name is Flannagan ranked that highly, two seasons of mediocre results, the second even worse than the first, the inability to see the trees for the leaves when it comes to his son, player unrest with club stalwarts leaving, has to be ranked only marginally safer than Payten
I’d have Cam Ciraldo at 10 aswell . Both Gus and he just signed on for another 5 years and what he’s done in the past 3 is has indeed brought hope back to long suffering Bulldogs fans around the world. Along with that I don’t believe Webster is actually a 9 more so an 8.