Every year, NRL teams enter the competition with varying levels of expectations.
Some are aiming for the premiership, some are trying to sneak back into finals footy, others are trying to stop a slide, and some just want to steer clear of the bottom after a handful of disastrous campaigns.
The 2025 campaign saw new premiers crowned, finally dethroning the Penrith Panthers, while some clubs were ahead of expectations, led by the Canterbury Bulldogs and Canberra Raiders, and others fell well short of where they should have been, led by the North Queensland Cowboys and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
With off-season moves done, Zero Tackle have unpacked the realistic expectations for every NRL team heading into 2026, picking the pass mark for each and every team.
Multiple teams share the same pass marks throughout, but that ultimately means some teams are going to be left unhappy.
The Dolphins
Push for the top four
The Dolphins were absolutely ravaged by injuries throughout 2025, and wound up spending their second straight season being in the mix for the finals all the way before missing out in the final round of the season.
But Kristian Woolf's side have plenty to write home about from their most recent campaign, not least of which was being the NRL's best attacking side.
Assuming they don't have quite the same injury run this year, improvement should be on the cards for the Redcliffe-based outfit.
Isaiya Katoa is only going to keep getting better, and so too are their other young players, while the forwards - led by Thomas Flegler and Tom Gilbert - being back should make a world of difference.
Top four seems the goal, but pushing for it will be a pass. Missing the finals would be a disaster.
I think “Push for the Top Four” is ambitious for the Dolphins.
If I were one of their management or their fans, I would think that just making the top eight and playing finals would be a success, this season.