The Queensland Maroons blew the NSW Blues out of the water in the second fixture of the 2026 State of Origin series, forcing a decider in their iconic homeland of Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium. Here's what it means for both sides and their chances of claiming the shield for this year.
There have been 24 times that an Origin series has been pushed to a deciding match, with Queensland dominating the favourable statistic, winning 16 of them. That's a 67% win record in favour of the Sunshine State.
New South Wales emerged winners on six occasions (1992, 1994, 2004, 2005, 2019 and 2024), and face the formidable task of having to roll up their sleeves and do it the tough way at Suncorp Stadium in front of 50,000 boisterous Queenslanders.
Out of the remaining two deciders not mentioned, they were both given a draw (1999 and 2002). At the current time period, 'golden point', or extra time, hasn't been introduced yet, with the rules stating the reigning shield holders will keep the winning rights. In this case, Queensland held the shield in both respective years.
In unfamiliar waters for the Blues, it only took a miracle try on the siren from James Tedesco in 2019 to clinch victory and break a 14-year decider drought.
In that period, though, the Maroons had the luxury of an immortal-like line-up which saw them win eight straight series in a row from 2006 to 2013. The Blues' record-smashing year in 2019 was also the first time since 2005 that the NSW made it back-to-back series wins.
Although said previously, the Blues are gonna have to do it tough, and have only won three deciders at Lang Park (2005, 2019 and 2024). Most recently, we saw Jake Trbojevic lift the shield after an incredible 14-4 win over the Maroons in Game 3 of 2024.
What made it even more unique for NSW was that Trbojevic wasn't even captain of his team at club level, and was given the minor role of setting the tone early in defence before spending the last hour off the field.
The Blues' 2005 series victory at Suncorp will go down as one of the most iconic Origin moments of all time, with Andrew Johns putting in a legacy performance to orchestrate a 32-10 win over the Maroons. Marking their third straight series win, Johns was in everything during that game, but NSW have only gone back to Suncorp once (2024) to replicate the magic.
Mirroring him in many ways, fans all across New South Wales will be hoping Nathan Cleary can step up and deliver a legendary performance as Johns did 21 years ago. 'Joey's' 2005 series still gets honoured excessively to this day, and was the icing on the cake for the calls that Johns should become an Immortal.
To find the answer on which state is going to come out on top for the 2026 series is by searching through history and seeing whether the sides that win Game 2 have enough momentum to win the decider, or if the state that wins the opening match makes a bounce back in Game 3.
The Maroons remain the firm favourites to close it out in 2026, and have secured seven series victories in a loss-win-win ratio (1982, 1987, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2017, and 2025).
The Blues are not far behind in five closeouts from the second game onwards (1994, 1999, 2005, 2019 and 2024), failing to add to the statistic this year after a last-minute try to Tedesco in the dying stages secured the first game win.
For the Blues' current predicament this year, the sides over the years that have won the opening game, dropped the second but re-claimed the third are slim, being over 20 years since they've achieved this feat (1992, 2002, and 2004).
Alarm bells may start ringing for NSW fans, with history suggesting that with both statistics out of their favour (only three deciders won at Suncorp and only three WLW ratios since 1980), it is unlikely they will yield success on their trip to Brisbane in July.
Blues coach Laurie Daley will also be feeling some heat following his recent Game 2 loss, where he is now one from nine in games where the Blues had the chance to wrap up the series and claim the shield.
To rub further salt into the wound, a total score of 228-110 has gone against the Blues in those nine games to clinch the series win. Daley's losses in his NSW coaching career include two in 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2025, while having one match to go in 2026 to add to that tally.
Queensland's recent 44-24 shellacking also raises an important question: whether a Game 2 losing team is able to come back from a large losing margin and secure the deciding fixture with a victory.
In the Blues' three WLW series wins, the second game in each of the respective series presented a slim margin between the two states with one point (1992), eight points (2002) and four points (2004) losses to NSW before claiming the shield, meaning they've never had to overcome a significant margin to win a decider.
The largest winning margin in a Game 2 fixture is 28 points, where the Blues defeated the Maroons 44-12 in 2022.
Queensland could weather the storm from that night in Sydney and return to Suncorp to win 22-12 in the decider three weeks later. Queensland also shares the record for a 28-point margin in 2010, but had already wrapped up the series and gave the Blues a clean sweep.
The stats certainly favour the Maroons heading into the decider, and a slice of history on their side certainly adds to the rivalry of deciders in Queensland.
In 2015, the Maroons downed the Blues 52-6 in the decider at Suncorp Stadium, blowing them off the park. From the opening whistle, NSW were off the mark and never looked like winning at any stage of the match; that's the power Suncorp can possess.
The Maroons are also responsible for one of the most iconic moments in Origin history, when in 2001 Wayne Bennett recalled Alfie Langer to come out of representative retirement in England and play Game 3 for Queensland.
One of the Maroons' greats, Langer, retired from Origin for three years before his return to town. Widely considered one of the greatest rugby league comebacks of all time, it was kept under great secrecy that Langer would show up, spearheading a series victory over the Blues in a 40-14 shutout in Brisbane.
The ultimate questions start to beckon: Will Mitchell Moses continue his Suncorp dominance, and can Cleary win a decider to put the critics to bed? Or will the Maroons get it done for Slater as they've done time and time again?
